Age-Specific Mortality and Fertility Rates for Probabilistic Population Projections

SummaryThe age structure of the immigrant female population as shown by the 1961 Census was heavily biased towards the young adult age groups, where fertility rates are highest. The birth rate for such a population could be expected considerably to exceed the average for this country as a whole, due to differences in age structure alone. The Census also showed marked differences betwen the fertility rates of different groups of immigrants but suggested that for the most important groups —from the Irish Republic, the Indian sub-continent and the Caribbean—they then amounted to a completed family size of roughly ½ child above the England and Wales average. There were also marked differences in 1961 between the socio-economic structure of immigrant groups; such evidence as there is points to socio-economic factors as playing an important part in explaining the fertility of immigrants, and its possible change over time.

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Tracing Mathematical Function of Age Specific Fertility Rate in Peninsular Malaysia

Indonesian Journal of Electrical Engineering and Computer Science ◽

10.11591/ijeecs.v9.i3.pp637-642 ◽

2018 ◽

Vol 9 (3) ◽

pp. 637

Author(s):

Norsyela Muhammad Noor Mathivanan ◽

Puzziawati Ab Ghani ◽

Nor Azura Md.Ghani

Keyword(s):

Mathematical Model ◽

Size Structure ◽

Peninsular Malaysia ◽

Fertility Rate ◽

Population Projections ◽

Mathematical Function ◽

Fertility Schedule ◽

Fertility Rates ◽

Early 21St Century ◽

Fertility Data

<p>The size, structure, and composition of a population are affected by the fertility rates at any point of time. Many researchers took the opportunity to exploit the fertility rates in obtaining better fertility patterns for their country. The curve for the age specific fertility rate is consistent, and this feature allows the curve to be matched with a mathematical model. This paper aimed to identify the best mathematical model that fits the recent age specific fertility rate in Peninsular Malaysia. This study fitted the fertility data of Peninsular Malaysia from 1996 to 2014 to the four mathematical models, which were Hadwiger, Gamma, Beta, and Gompertz models. From the comparisons of the four models, it was found that the best fitted mathematical model is Hadwiger model. In relation to the data of early 21st century, there was an inclination for the best fitted mathematical model from Hadwiger model to Beta model. Hence, the best mathematical model for each year can be used to convert a fertility schedule classified in a five-year age group into a fertility schedule for a single-year of age in Peninsular Malaysia. This model also can be helpful for population projections by using limited and defective data. </p>

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United Nations Report: World Population Projections to 2150

Foreign Policy Bulletin ◽

10.1017/s1052703600002884 ◽

1998 ◽

Vol 9 (2) ◽

pp. 115-118 ◽

Cited By ~ 2

Keyword(s):

United Nations ◽

Long Range ◽

Population Projections ◽

World Population ◽

Future Scenarios ◽

Fertility Rates ◽

Critical Importance ◽

The World ◽

The United Nations ◽

United Nations Population Division

The long-range population projections presented here, prepared by the United Nations Population Division, cover the period from 1950 to 2150. A total of seven projections for each of the eight major areas of the world are considered in this report. The variants are distinguished by their assumptions regarding future scenarios in total fertility rates. The range of potential demographic outcomes underscores the difficulty in focusing on any particular scenario and also highlights the critical importance of current policies and actions for the long-range future of the world population.

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Analysis of Fertility in England and Wales by Position in Family.

Journal of the Staple Inn Actuarial Society ◽

10.1017/s0020269x00007349 ◽

1961 ◽

Vol 16 (04) ◽

pp. 309-318

Author(s):

J. R. Ford ◽

C. M. Stewart

Keyword(s):

Early Years ◽

Population Projections ◽

Royal Commission ◽

School Age ◽

Fertility Rates ◽

Marked Rise ◽

England And Wales ◽

Marriage Rates ◽

Number Of Births

1. During the early 1950's the annual numbers of births in England and Wales varied little from an average of 675,000, but since then there has been a marked rise and in 1960 no fewer than 783,000 births were registered. This steep increase was unforeseen in official population projections, including the range of projections published by the Royal Commission on Population, and is likely to have serious repercussions in some quarters. For example, it will in due course result in an increase in the numbers of children of school age to well above the numbers on which plans for school building and teacher training were based.2. In a paper presented to the Society a year ago (J.S.S.16, 85) the authors showed that the increase in births was attributable in part to an increase in marriage rates and in part to an increase in fertility rates, but the latest data available were those relating to 1957 when there were 723,000 births. No explanation could be offered for the further increase and, in deciding upon the number of births to be assumed in the early years of the projection contained in the paper, it was assumed arbitrarily that the numbers would decline from 750,000 in 1959 to 710,000 in 1963, the latter being the number calculated on the marriage and fertility bases thought suitable for the long-term projection.

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Policy-based Population Projections for the European Union: A Complementary Approach

Comparative Population Studies ◽

10.12765/cpos-2019-14 ◽

2019 ◽

Vol 44 ◽

Author(s):

Philip Cafaro ◽

Patrícia Dérer

Keyword(s):

European Union ◽

Population Projections ◽

The European Union ◽

Fertility Rates ◽

Policy Choices ◽

Wide Range ◽

The Impact ◽

Future Population ◽

The Eu ◽

Population Numbers

We present new population projections out to 2100 for the countries of the European Union and for the EU as a whole under a wide range of fertility and migration scenarios. As policy-based projections rather than forecasts, they aspire not to maximize predictive success regarding future demographic developments, but to accurately show the impact of different migration and socio-economic policy choices on population numbers. Our chief aim is to clarify those policy choices for European citizens and policymakers. We show that demographic policies have the potential to markedly increase or decrease future populations across the EU. Migration policy offers greater scope for influencing future population numbers than policies aimed at influencing national fertility rates. In countries with particularly low fertility rates or high emigration levels, egalitarian economic and family support policies have the potential to limit future population decreases to a significant extent, especially in combination. In most cases, EU nations are well placed to stabilize or slowly reduce their populations by continuing status quo policies or with moderate changes. Thus they are well placed to achieve one of the necessary conditions for creating ecologically sustainable societies.

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