On the Impact of the Diabatic Component in the Forecast Sensitivity Observation Impact Diagnostics

2016 ◽  
pp. 483-511 ◽  
Author(s):  
Marta Janisková ◽  
Carla Cardinali
Keyword(s):  
Observation Impact ◽  
The Impact

A New Approach for Estimating the Observation Impact in Ensemble–Variational Data Assimilation

2018 ◽  
Vol 146 (2) ◽  
pp. 447-465 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mark Buehner ◽  
Ping Du ◽  
Joël Bédard
Keyword(s):  
Data Assimilation ◽  
Forecast Error ◽  
Forecast Model ◽  
Variational Data Assimilation ◽  
Observation Error ◽  
New Approach ◽  
Regional Prediction ◽  
Observation Impact ◽  
Adjoint Approach ◽  
The Impact

Abstract Two types of approaches are commonly used for estimating the impact of arbitrary subsets of observations on short-range forecast error. The first was developed for variational data assimilation systems and requires the adjoint of the forecast model. Comparable approaches were developed for use with the ensemble Kalman filter and rely on ensembles of forecasts. In this study, a new approach for computing observation impact is proposed for ensemble–variational data assimilation (EnVar). Like standard adjoint approaches, the adjoint of the data assimilation procedure is implemented through the iterative minimization of a modified cost function. However, like ensemble approaches, the adjoint of the forecast step is obtained by using an ensemble of forecasts. Numerical experiments were performed to compare the new approach with the standard adjoint approach in the context of operational deterministic NWP. Generally similar results are obtained with both approaches, especially when the new approach uses covariance localization that is horizontally advected between analysis and forecast times. However, large differences in estimated impacts are obtained for some surface observations. Vertical propagation of the observation impact is noticeably restricted with the new approach because of vertical covariance localization. The new approach is used to evaluate changes in observation impact as a result of the use of interchannel observation error correlations for radiance observations. The estimated observation impact in similarly configured global and regional prediction systems is also compared. Overall, the new approach should provide useful estimates of observation impact for data assimilation systems based on EnVar when an adjoint model is not available.

scholarly journals Comparing Two Approaches for Assessing Observation Impact

2013 ◽  
Vol 141 (5) ◽  
pp. 1484-1505 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ricardo Todling
Keyword(s):  
Data Assimilation ◽  
State Space ◽  
Adjoint Operator ◽  
Additional Advantage ◽  
Earth Observing System ◽  
Natural Choice ◽  
Observation Impact ◽  
Observation Space ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Space Approach

Abstract Langland and Baker introduced an approach to assess the impact of observations on the forecasts. In that approach, a state-space aspect of the forecast is defined and a procedure is derived ultimately relating changes in the aspect with changes in the observing system. Some features of the state-space approach are to be noted: the typical choice of forecast aspect is rather subjective and leads to incomplete assessment of the observing system, it requires availability of a verification state that is in practice correlated with the forecast, and it involves the adjoint operator of the entire data assimilation system and is thus constrained by the validity of this operator. This article revisits the topic of observation impacts from the perspective of estimation theory. An observation-space metric is used to allow inferring observation impact on the forecasts without the limitations just mentioned. Using differences of observation-minus-forecast residuals obtained from consecutive forecasts leads to the following advantages: (i) it suggests a rather natural choice of forecast aspect that directly links to the data assimilation procedure, (ii) it avoids introducing undesirable correlations in the forecast aspect since verification is done against the observations, and (iii) it does not involve linearization and use of adjoints. The observation-space approach has the additional advantage of being nearly cost free and very simple to implement. In its simplest form it reduces to evaluating the statistics of observation-minus-background and observation-minus-analysis residuals with traditional methods. Illustrations comparing the approaches are given using the NASA Goddard Earth Observing System.

scholarly journals Effect of boundary conditions on adjoint-based forecast sensitivity observation impact in a regional model

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Hyun Mee Kim ◽  
Dae-Hui Kim
Keyword(s):  
Boundary Conditions ◽  
Forecast Error ◽  
Error Reduction ◽  
Regional Model ◽  
Buffer Size ◽  
Lateral Boundary ◽  
Modeling Framework ◽  
Lateral Boundary Conditions ◽  
Observation Impact ◽  
The Impact

AbstractIn this study, the effect of boundary condition configurations in the regional Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model on the adjoint-based forecast sensitivity observation impact (FSOI) for 24 h forecast error reduction was evaluated. The FSOI has been used to diagnose the impact of observations on the forecast performance in several global and regional models. Different from the global model, in the regional model, the lateral boundaries affect forecasts and FSOI results. Several experiments with different lateral boundary conditions were conducted. The experimental period was from 1 to 14 June 2015. With or without data assimilation, the larger the buffer size in lateral boundary conditions, the smaller the forecast error. The nonlinear and linear forecast error reduction (i.e., observation impact) decreased as the buffer size increased, implying larger impact of lateral boundaries and smaller observation impact on the forecast error. In all experiments, in terms of observation types (variables), upper-air radiosonde observations (brightness temperature) exhibited the greatest observation impact. The ranking of observation impacts was consistent for observation types and variables among experiments with a constraint in the response function at the upper boundary. The fractions of beneficial observations were approximately 60%, and did not considerably vary depending on the boundary conditions specified when calculating the FSOI in the regional modeling framework.

scholarly journals A Global Ocean Observing System for Measuring Sea Level Atmospheric Pressure: Effects and Impacts on Numerical Weather Prediction

2017 ◽  
Vol 98 (2) ◽  
pp. 231-238 ◽  
Author(s):  
Luca Centurioni ◽  
András Horányi ◽  
Carla Cardinali ◽  
Etienne Charpentier ◽  
Rick Lumpkin
Keyword(s):  
Sea Level ◽  
Surface Pressure ◽  
Numerical Weather Prediction ◽  
Atmospheric Pressure ◽  
Weather Prediction ◽  
Global Ocean ◽  
Numerical Weather ◽  
Observation Impact ◽  
The Impact

Abstract Since 1994 the U.S. Global Drifter Program (GDP) and its international partners cooperating within the Data Buoy Cooperation Panel (DBCP) of the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) and the United Nations Education, Scientific and Cultural Organization (UNESCO) have been deploying drifters equipped with barometers primarily in the extratropical regions of the world’s oceans in support of operational weather forecasting. To date, the impact of the drifter data isolated from other sources has never been studied. This essay quantifies and discusses the effect and the impact of in situ sea level atmospheric pressure (SLP) data from the global drifter array on numerical weather prediction using observing system experiments and forecast sensitivity observation impact studies. The in situ drifter SLP observations are extremely valuable for anchoring the global surface pressure field and significantly contributing to accurate marine weather forecasts, especially in regions where no other in situ observations are available, for example, the Southern Ocean. Furthermore, the forecast sensitivity observation impact analysis indicates that the SLP drifter data are the most valuable per-observation contributor of the Global Observing System (GOS). All these results give evidence that surface pressure observations of drifting buoys are essential ingredients of the GOS and that their quantity, quality, and distribution should be preserved as much as possible in order to avoid any analysis and forecast degradations. The barometer upgrade program offered by the GDP, under which GDP-funded drifters can be equipped with partner-funded accurate air pressure sensors, is a practical example of how the DBCP collaboration is executed. Interested parties are encouraged to contact the GDP to discuss upgrade opportunities.

scholarly journals Adjoint-Derived Impact of Assimilated Observations on Tropical Cyclone Intensity Forecasts of Hurricane Joaquin (2015) and Hurricane Matthew (2016)

2020 ◽  
Vol 37 (8) ◽  
pp. 1333-1352
Author(s):  
Brett T. Hoover ◽  
Chris S. Velden
Keyword(s):  
Tropical Cyclone ◽  
Initial Conditions ◽  
Lower Troposphere ◽  
Extended Period ◽  
Precipitable Water ◽  
Cyclone Intensity ◽  
Model Background ◽  
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Forecasts ◽  
Observation Impact ◽  
The Impact

AbstractThe adjoint-derived observation impact method is used as a diagnostic to derive the impact of assimilated observations on a metric representing the forecast intensity of a tropical cyclone (TC). Storm-centered composites of observation impact and the model background state are computed across 6-hourly analysis/forecast cycles to compute the composite observation impact throughout the life cycle of Hurricane Joaquin (2015) to evaluate the impact of in situ wind and temperature observations in the upper and lower troposphere, as well as the impact of brightness temperature and precipitable water observations, on intensity forecasts with forecast lengths from 12 to 48 h. The compositing across analysis/forecast cycles allows for the exploration of consistent relationships between the synoptic-scale state of the initial conditions and the impact of observations that are interpreted as flow-dependent interactions between model background bias and correction by assimilated observations on the TC intensity forecast. The track of Hurricane Matthew (2016), with an extended period of time near the coasts of Florida, Georgia, and the Carolinas, allows for a comparison of the impact of aircraft reconnaissance observations with the impact of nearby overland rawinsonde observations available within the same radius of the TC.

scholarly journals Estimation and calibration of observation impact signals using the Lanczos method in NOAA/NCEP data assimilation system

2012 ◽  
Vol 19 (5) ◽  
pp. 541-557 ◽  
Author(s):  
M. Wei ◽  
M. S. F. V. De Pondeca ◽  
Z. Toth ◽  
D. Parrish
Keyword(s):  
Data Assimilation ◽  
Weather Prediction ◽  
Lanczos Method ◽  
Forecast Errors ◽  
Observation Data ◽  
Error Covariance ◽  
Observation Impact ◽  
Analysis Error ◽  
The Tropics ◽  
The Impact

Abstract. Despite the tremendous progress that has been made in data assimilation (DA) methodology, observing systems that reduce observation errors, and model improvements that reduce background errors, the analyses produced by the best available DA systems are still different from the truth. Analysis error and error covariance are important since they describe the accuracy of the analyses, and are directly related to the future forecast errors, i.e., the forecast quality. In addition, analysis error covariance is critically important in building an efficient ensemble forecast system (EFS). Estimating analysis error covariance in an ensemble-based Kalman filter DA is straightforward, but it is challenging in variational DA systems, which have been in operation at most NWP (Numerical Weather Prediction) centers. In this study, we use the Lanczos method in the NCEP (the National Centers for Environmental Prediction) Gridpoint Statistical Interpolation (GSI) DA system to look into other important aspects and properties of this method that were not exploited before. We apply this method to estimate the observation impact signals (OIS), which are directly related to the analysis error variances. It is found that the smallest eigenvalue of the transformed Hessian matrix converges to one as the number of minimization iterations increases. When more observations are assimilated, the convergence becomes slower and more eigenvectors are needed to retrieve the observation impacts. It is also found that the OIS over data-rich regions can be represented by the eigenvectors with dominant eigenvalues. Since only a limited number of eigenvectors can be computed due to computational expense, the OIS is severely underestimated, and the analysis error variance is consequently overestimated. It is found that the mean OIS values for temperature and wind components at typical model levels are increased by about 1.5 times when the number of eigenvectors is doubled. We have proposed four different calibration schemes to compensate for the missing trailing eigenvectors. Results show that the method with calibration for a small number of eigenvectors cannot pick up the observation impacts over the regions with fewer observations as well as a benchmark with a large number of eigenvectors, but proper calibrations do enhance and improve the impact signals over regions with more data. When compared with the observation locations, the method generally captures the OIS over regions with more observation data, including satellite data over the southern oceans. Over the tropics, some observation impacts may be missed due to the smaller background errors specified in the GSI, which is not related to the method. It is found that a large number of eigenvectors are needed to retrieve impact signals that resemble the banded structures from satellite observations, particularly over the tropics. Another benefit from the Lanczos method is that the dominant eigenvectors can be used in preconditioning the conjugate gradient algorithm in the GSI to speed up the convergence.

Adjoint-Derived Observation Impact Using WRF in the Western North Pacific

2013 ◽  
Vol 141 (11) ◽  
pp. 4080-4097 ◽  
Author(s):  
Byoung-Joo Jung ◽  
Hyun Mee Kim ◽  
Thomas Auligné ◽  
Xin Zhang ◽  
Xiaoyan Zhang ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
North Pacific ◽  
Western North Pacific ◽  
Forecast Error ◽  
Weather Prediction ◽  
Motion Vector ◽  
Background Error ◽  
Error Covariance ◽  
Observation Impact ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Total Impact

Abstract An increasing number of observations have contributed to the performance of numerical weather prediction systems. Accordingly, it is important to evaluate the impact of these observations on forecast accuracy. While the observing system experiment (OSE) requires considerable computational resources, the adjoint-derived method can evaluate the impact of all observational components at a lower cost. In this study, the effect of observations on forecasts is evaluated by the adjoint-derived method using the Weather Research and Forecasting Model, its adjoint model, and a corresponding three-dimensional variational data assimilation system in East Asia and the western North Pacific for the 2008 typhoon season. Radiance observations had the greatest total impact on forecasts, but conventional wind observations had the greatest impact per observation. For each observation type, the total impact was greatest for radiosonde and each Advanced Microwave Sounding Unit (AMSU)-A satellite, followed by surface synoptic observation from a land station (SYNOP), Quick Scatterometer (QuikSCAT), atmospheric motion vector (AMV) wind from a geostationary satellite (GEOAMV), and aviation routine weather reports (METARs). The fraction of beneficial observations was approximately 60%–70%, which is higher than that reported in previous studies. For several analyses of Typhoons Sinlaku (200813) and Jangmi (200815), dropsonde soundings taken near the typhoon had similar or greater observation impacts than routine radiosonde soundings. The sensitivity to the error covariance parameter indicates that reducing (increasing) observation (background) error covariance helps to reduce forecast error in the current analysis framework. The observation impact from OSEs is qualitatively similar to that from the adjoint method for major observation types. This study confirms that radiosonde observations provide primary information on the atmospheric state as in situ observations and that satellite radiances are an essential component of atmospheric observation systems.

Atmospheric River Reconnaissance Observation Impact in the Navy Global Forecast System

2020 ◽  
Vol 148 (2) ◽  
pp. 763-782 ◽  
Author(s):  
Rebecca E. Stone ◽  
Carolyn A. Reynolds ◽  
James D. Doyle ◽  
Rolf H. Langland ◽  
Nancy L. Baker ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
North American ◽  
Forecast Error ◽  
Error Variance ◽  
Observation Error ◽  
Atmospheric Rivers ◽  
Atmospheric River ◽  
The North ◽  
Beneficial Impact ◽  
Observation Impact ◽  
The Impact

Abstract Atmospheric rivers, often associated with impactful weather along the west coast of North America, can be a challenge to forecast even on short time scales. This is attributed, at least in part, to the scarcity of eastern Pacific in situ observations. We examine the impact of assimilating dropsonde observations collected during the Atmospheric River (AR) Reconnaissance 2018 field program on the Navy Global Environmental Model (NAVGEM) analyses and forecasts. We compare NAVGEM’s representation of the ARs to the observations, and examine whether the observation–background difference statistics are similar to the observation error variance specified in the data assimilation system. Forecast sensitivity observation impact is determined for each dropsonde variable, and compared to the impacts of the North American radiosonde network. We find that the reconnaissance soundings have significant beneficial impact, with per observation impact more than double that of the North American radiosonde network. Temperature and wind observations have larger total and per observation impact than moisture observations. In our experiment, the 24-h global forecast error reduction from the reconnaissance soundings can be comparable to the reduction from the North American radiosonde network for the field program dates that include at least two flights.

scholarly journals Using Adjoint-Based Forecast Sensitivity Method to Evaluate TAMDAR Data Impacts on Regional Forecasts

2015 ◽  
Vol 2015 ◽  
pp. 1-13 ◽  
Author(s):  
Xiaoyan Zhang ◽  
Hongli Wang ◽  
Xiang-Yu Huang ◽  
Feng Gao ◽  
Neil A. Jacobs
Keyword(s):  
Forecast Error ◽  
Meteorological Data ◽  
Distinct Advantage ◽  
Observation System ◽  
Observation Report ◽  
Observation Impact ◽  
Synoptic Observations ◽  
Sensitivity Method ◽  
Regional Forecasts ◽  
The Impact

This study evaluates the impact of Tropospheric Airborne Meteorological Data Reporting (TAMDAR) observations on regional 24-hour forecast error reduction over the Continental United States (CONUS) domain using adjoint-based forecast sensitivity to observation (FSO) method as the diagnostic tool. The relative impact of TAMDAR observations on reducing the forecast error was assessed by conducting the WRFDA FSO experiments for two two-week-long periods, one in January and one in June 2010. These experiments assimilated operational TAMDAR data and other conventional observations, as well as GPS refractivity (GPSREF). FSO results show that rawinsonde soundings (SOUND) and TAMDAR exhibit the largest observation impact on 24 h WRF forecast, followed by GeoAMV, aviation routine weather reports (METAR), GPSREF, and synoptic observations (SYNOP). At 0000 and 1200 UTC, TAMDAR has an equivalent impact to SOUND in reducing the 24-hour forecast error. However, at 1800 UTC, TAMDAR has a distinct advantage over SOUND, which has the sparse observation report at these times. In addition, TAMDAR humidity observations at lower levels of the atmosphere (700 and 850 hPa) have a significant impact on 24 h forecast error reductions. TAMDAR and SOUND observations present a qualitatively similar observation impact between FSO and Observation System Experiments (OSEs).

scholarly journals Effect of Enhanced Satellite-Derived Atmospheric Motion Vectors on Numerical Weather Prediction in East Asia Using an Adjoint-Based Observation Impact Method

2017 ◽  
Vol 32 (2) ◽  
pp. 579-594 ◽  
Author(s):  
Myunghwan Kim ◽  
Hyun Mee Kim ◽  
JinWoong Kim ◽  
Sung-Min Kim ◽  
Christopher Velden ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Numerical Weather Prediction ◽  
Forecast Error ◽  
Weather Prediction ◽  
Motion Vectors ◽  
Numerical Weather ◽  
Atmospheric Motion ◽  
Observation Impact ◽  
Total Observation ◽  
Atmospheric Motion Vectors ◽  
The Impact

Abstract When producing forecasts by integrating a numerical weather prediction model from an analysis, not all observations assimilated into the analysis improve the forecast. Therefore, the impact of particular observations on the forecast needs to be evaluated quantitatively to provide relevant information about the impact of the observing system. One way to assess the observation impact is to use an adjoint-based method that estimates the impact of each assimilated observation on reducing the error of the forecast. In this study, the Weather Research and Forecasting Model and its adjoint are used to evaluate the impact of several types of observations, including enhanced satellite-derived atmospheric motion vectors (AMVs) that were made available during observation campaigns for two typhoons: Sinlaku and Jangmi, which both formed in the western North Pacific during September 2008. Without the assimilation of enhanced AMV data, radiosonde observations and satellite radiances show the highest total observation impact on forecasts. When enhanced AMVs are included in the assimilation, the observation impact of AMVs is increased and the impact of radiances is decreased. The highest ratio of beneficial observations comes from GPS Precipitable Water (GPSPW) without the assimilation of enhanced AMVs. Most observations express a ratio of approximately 60%. Enhanced AMVs improve forecast fields when tracking the typhoon centers of Sinlaku and Jangmi. Both the model background and the analysis are improved by the continuous cycling of enhanced AMVs, with a greater reduction in forecast error along the background trajectory than the analysis trajectory. Thus, while the analysis–forecast system is improved by assimilating these observations, the total observation impact is smaller as a result of the improvement.

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