Using Multi Level Modeling Techniques as an AVM Tool: Isolating the Effects of Earthquake Risk from Other Price Determinants

2017 ◽  
pp. 209-223
Author(s):  
Richard Dunning ◽  
Berna Keskin ◽  
Craig Watkins
Keyword(s):  
Earthquake Risk ◽  
Modeling Techniques ◽  
Multi Level ◽  
Price Determinants

scholarly journals Modelling the impact of earthquake activity on real estate values: a multi-level approach

2017 ◽  
Vol 10 (1) ◽  
pp. 73-90 ◽  
Author(s):  
Berna Keskin ◽  
Richard Dunning ◽  
Craig Watkins
Keyword(s):  
Real Estate ◽  
Perceived Risk ◽  
House Prices ◽  
Insurance Companies ◽  
Earthquake Risk ◽  
Earthquake Activity ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Multi Level ◽  
Environmental Events ◽  
The Impact

Purpose This paper aims to explore the impact of a recent earthquake activity on house prices and their spatial distribution in the Istanbul housing market. Design/methodology/approach The paper uses a multi-level approach within an event study framework to model changes in the pattern of house prices in Istanbul. The model allows the isolation of the effects of earthquake risk and explores the differential impact in different submarkets in two study periods – one before (2007) and one after (2012) recent earthquake activity in the Van region, which although in Eastern Turkey served to alter the perceptions of risk through the wider geographic region. Findings The analysis shows that there are variations in the size of price discounts in submarkets resulting from the differential influence of a recent earthquake activity on perceived risk of damage. The model results show that the spatial impacts of these changes are not transmitted evenly across the study area. Rather it is clear that submarkets at the cheaper end of the market have proportionately larger negative impacts on real estate values. Research limitations/implications The robustness of the models would be enhanced by the addition of further spatial levels and larger data sets. Practical implications The methods introduced in this study can be used by real estate agents, valuers and insurance companies to help them more accurately assess the likely impacts of changes in the perceived risk of earthquake activity (or other environmental events such as flooding) on the formation of house prices in different market segments. Social implications The application of these methods is intended to inform a fairer approach to setting insurance premiums and a better basis for determining policy interventions and public investment designed to mitigate potential earthquake risk. Originality/value The paper represents an attempt to develop a novel extension of the standard use of hedonic models in event studies to investigate the impact of natural disasters on real estate values. The value of the approach is that it is able to better capture the granularity of the spatial effects of environmental events than the standard approach.

Modeling of Dislocations in an Epitaxial Island Structure

2001 ◽  
Vol 673 ◽  
Author(s):  
X. H. Liu ◽  
F. M. Ross ◽  
K. W. Schwarz
Keyword(s):  
Dislocation Loop ◽  
Lattice Mismatch ◽  
Growth Behavior ◽  
Dislocation Dynamics ◽  
Stress Fields ◽  
Island Structure ◽  
Modeling Techniques ◽  
Multi Level ◽  
Good Agreement

ABSTRACTWe present calculations of dislocations in CoSi2 islands grown by reactive epitaxy on a Si(111) substrate. The stress fields due to the lattice mismatch are calculated with standard FEM techniques, and are converted into a structured, multi-level and multi-grid stress table that is imported into the PARANOID code to study the dislocation dynamics. Single and multiple dislocations in the island have been simulated, and the predicted patterns are strikingly similar to those observed experimentally. By looking at the growth behavior of very small loops we also find that dislocation-loop nucleation becomes easier as the islands become larger, and that thick islands are dislocated at smaller sizes than thin ones. These results are also in good agreement with experimental observations. We conclude that current modeling techniques are sufficient to treat this type of problem at a useful level of accuracy.

Preserving Multi-level Semantics in Conventional Two-Level Modeling Techniques

2019 ◽  
Author(s):  
Joao Paulo A. Almeida ◽  
Fernando A. Musso ◽  
Victorio A. Carvalho ◽  
Claudenir M. Fonseca ◽  
Giancarlo Guizzardi
Keyword(s):  
Modeling Techniques ◽  
Multi Level

Modeling Techniques for Multi-level Abstraction

2011 ◽  
pp. 68-92 ◽  
Author(s):  
Bernd Neumayr ◽  
Michael Schrefl ◽  
Bernhard Thalheim
Keyword(s):  
Modeling Techniques ◽  
Multi Level

scholarly journals HEDONIC ANALYSIS OF PRICE IN THE ISTANBUL HOUSING MARKET

2008 ◽  
Vol 12 (2) ◽  
pp. 125-138 ◽  
Author(s):  
Berna Keskin
Keyword(s):  
Housing Prices ◽  
Housing Price ◽  
Urban Housing ◽  
Earthquake Risk ◽  
Hedonic Price ◽  
Modelling Framework ◽  
Price Determinants ◽  
Housing Submarket ◽  
Living Area ◽  
Storey Building

The purpose of this paper is to explore the factors that affect housing prices in Istanbul. A hedonic price model is employed in order to examine housing price determinants with respect to property characteristics, socio‐economic characteristics, neighbourhood quality characteristics, and locational factors. The results reveal that housing prices are affected by these factors: living area size, being in a low storey building, being in a secured site (with swimming pool and garage), and age of the building. In addition to these determinants, the length of time the inhabitants have lived in Istanbul, the average income of the household, neighbour satisfaction and earthquake risk of the area have effects on the residential prices in Istanbul. Further research is suggested by constructing a second model that includes neighbourhood dummy variables as a proxy for submarkets, and a multi‐level modelling framework will be employed in order to analyse the urban housing submarket system. Santrauka Šiame darbe siekiama išnagrinėti veiksnius, kurie daro įtaką būsto kainoms Stambule. Pa si tel kus hedoninį kainų modelį, tyrinėjami būsto kainas lemiantys veiksniai, atsižvelgiant į nekilnojamojo turto charakteristikas, socialinius-ekonominius veiksnius, apylinkių kokybės bruožus ir vietos veiksnius. Rezultatai rodo, kad būsto kainoms įtaką daro tokie veiksniai: gy ve namosios teritorijos dydis, pastato aukštingumas, buvimas sklype ir pastato amžius. Be šių veiksnių, būsto kainas Stambule veikia ir laikas gyventas mieste, vidutinės namų ūkio pajamos, patinkantys kaimynai bei žemės drebėjimų rizika toje terito ri jo je. Siūloma atlikti tolesnius tyrimus, suformuojant antrą fi ktyviuosius apylinkių kintamuosius apimantį modelį, kuris bus taikomas kaip subrinkų pakaitalas, o naudojant daugialypę modeliavimo struktūrą bus siekiama išanalizuoti miesto būsto subrinkos sistemą.

Verlaufsanalyse wöchentlicher Selbst- und Fremdeinschätzungen in der Langzeittherapie suchtkranker Jugendlicher

2019 ◽  
Vol 47 (2) ◽  
pp. 126-137
Author(s):  
Ferdinand Keller ◽  
Tatjana Stadnitski ◽  
Jakob Nützel ◽  
Renate Schepker
Keyword(s):  
Allen Vier ◽  
Multi Level

Zusammenfassung. Fragestellung: Über Veränderungen in der emotionalen Befindlichkeit von Jugendlichen während einer Suchttherapie ist wenig bekannt. Methode: Die Jugendlichen füllten wöchentlich einen entsprechenden Fragebogen aus, analog ihre Bezugsbetreuer eine parallelisierte Kurzfassung. Von 42 Jugendlichen liegen insgesamt 853 Bogen und von den Bezugsbetreuern 708 Bogen vor. Die Fragebogen wurden zunächst faktorenanalytisch hinsichtlich ihrer Dimensionalität ausgewertet, anschließend wurden gruppenbezogene Verlaufsanalysen (Multi-Level-Modelle) und Abhängigkeitsanalysen auf Einzelfallebene (Zeitreihenanalysen) durchgeführt. Ergebnisse: Im Jugendlichenfragebogen ergaben sich vier Faktoren: negative Befindlichkeit, Wertschätzung von Therapie/Betreuung, Motivation und Suchtdynamik. Die Übereinstimmung zwischen den Jugendlichen- und der (einfaktoriellen) Betreuereinschätzung fiel insgesamt niedrig bis mäßig aus, brachte aber auf Einzelfallebene differenziertere Ergebnisse. Im Verlauf nahmen die Werte auf allen vier Jugendlichenskalen ab. Einzig der Verlauf der Wertschätzung in der Eingewöhnungsphase war prädiktiv für den späteren Abbruch der Maßnahme: Bei den Abbrechern nahm die Wertschätzung ab, während sie bei den Beendern initial stieg. Schlussfolgerungen: Der bedeutsamste Faktor in Bezug auf die Therapiebeendigung suchtkranker Jugendlicher scheint die Wertschätzung von Therapie/Betreuung zu sein, während die Motivation jugendtypische Schwankungen aufweist. Der Suchtdynamik kam eine deutlich weniger bedeutende Rolle zu als allgemein angenommen. Programme in der Langzeittherapie sollten die Wertschätzung von Therapie/Betreuung künftig mehr fokussieren als die Suchtdynamik.

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