scholarly journals Modelling the impact of earthquake activity on real estate values: a multi-level approach

2017 ◽  
Vol 10 (1) ◽  
pp. 73-90 ◽  
Author(s):  
Berna Keskin ◽  
Richard Dunning ◽  
Craig Watkins
Keyword(s):  
Real Estate ◽  
Perceived Risk ◽  
House Prices ◽  
Insurance Companies ◽  
Earthquake Risk ◽  
Earthquake Activity ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Multi Level ◽  
Environmental Events ◽  
The Impact

Purpose This paper aims to explore the impact of a recent earthquake activity on house prices and their spatial distribution in the Istanbul housing market. Design/methodology/approach The paper uses a multi-level approach within an event study framework to model changes in the pattern of house prices in Istanbul. The model allows the isolation of the effects of earthquake risk and explores the differential impact in different submarkets in two study periods – one before (2007) and one after (2012) recent earthquake activity in the Van region, which although in Eastern Turkey served to alter the perceptions of risk through the wider geographic region. Findings The analysis shows that there are variations in the size of price discounts in submarkets resulting from the differential influence of a recent earthquake activity on perceived risk of damage. The model results show that the spatial impacts of these changes are not transmitted evenly across the study area. Rather it is clear that submarkets at the cheaper end of the market have proportionately larger negative impacts on real estate values. Research limitations/implications The robustness of the models would be enhanced by the addition of further spatial levels and larger data sets. Practical implications The methods introduced in this study can be used by real estate agents, valuers and insurance companies to help them more accurately assess the likely impacts of changes in the perceived risk of earthquake activity (or other environmental events such as flooding) on the formation of house prices in different market segments. Social implications The application of these methods is intended to inform a fairer approach to setting insurance premiums and a better basis for determining policy interventions and public investment designed to mitigate potential earthquake risk. Originality/value The paper represents an attempt to develop a novel extension of the standard use of hedonic models in event studies to investigate the impact of natural disasters on real estate values. The value of the approach is that it is able to better capture the granularity of the spatial effects of environmental events than the standard approach.

Foreign investment in Australian residential properties

2019 ◽  
Vol 12 (2) ◽  
pp. 166-180 ◽  
Author(s):  
Hassan F. Gholipour ◽  
Hooi Hooi Lean ◽  
Reza Tajaddini ◽  
Anh Khoi Pham
Keyword(s):  
Real Estate ◽  
Foreign Investment ◽  
House Prices ◽  
Real Estate Market ◽  
Housing Development ◽  
Housing Construction ◽  
Annual Data ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Residential Properties ◽  
The Impact

Purpose The purpose of this study is to examine the impact that foreign investment in existing houses and new housing development has on residential house prices and the growth of the housing construction sector. Design/methodology/approach The analysis is based on a panel cointegration method, estimated using annual data for all Australian states and territories spanning the period of 1990-2013. Findings The results indicate that increases in foreign investment in existing houses do not significantly lead to increases in house prices. On the other hand, a 10 per cent increase in foreign investment for housing development decreases house prices by 1.95 per cent. We also find that foreign real estate investments have a positive impact on housing construction activities in the long run. Originality/value Existing studies used aggregate foreign real estate investment in their analyses. As foreign investment in existing houses and foreign investment for housing development have different impacts on the demand and supply sides of housing market, it is crucial that the analysis of the effects of foreign investment in residential properties on real estate market is conducted for each type differently.

scholarly journals Making sense of increased synchronization in global house prices

2020 ◽  
Vol 13 (1) ◽  
pp. 5-16
Author(s):  
John V. Duca
Keyword(s):  
Real Estate ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
House Prices ◽  
House Price ◽  
Substitution Effects ◽  
Content Type ◽  
International Portfolio Diversification ◽  
Gateway Cities ◽  
The Impact ◽  
International House

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to provide perspective on whether and why global metro house prices have become more synchronized, and perspective on the limited implications of this for investing in international real estate. Design/methodology/approach This paper reviews main findings from the literature on house price determination, reviews the emerging literature on global synchronization, and provides graphs to illustrate main points and trends. Findings House prices have become somewhat more synchronized likely reflecting greater correlation in long-term interest rates and macroeconomic cycles related to trends in globalization and international portfolio diversification. Nevertheless, this trend has not been continuous, reflecting that house prices depend on other fundamentals, which are not uniform across areas. Theory and evidence indicate that the more common are fundamentals, the more synchronized are house price cycles and the more substitution effects may matter. Also, real estate markets that are open to immigration and foreign investment have become more sensitive to shifts in the international demand for property by migrants or investors. Research limitations/implications Changes in international house price synchronization stem from variation in two categories of key drivers of house prices. The first are traditional supply and demand fundamentals. The second include international capital flows and immigration. Both sets of factors are sensitive to the economic environment and public policy. Increased synchronization of business cycles, the Euro currency union, and more common monetary policy strategies and tactics have fostered greater correlation of real interest rates across countries, which tend to increase house price synchronization. These effects can be amplified by the tendency for property owners to use extrapolative expectations of future house prices. Practical implications Shifts in prospective returns and the synchronization of international property returns not only on arbitrage of general property price differentials but also on underlying factors driving those differentials. Investors need to be mindful of the risks that metro prices sometimes reflect bubble-builder dynamics that can give rise to over-shooting of house prices. Observing simple correlations and changes in those correlations does not do away with the need for careful analysis of property investment, and if anything, warrant analysis of both how and why one may observe changes in the extent to which international house prices is synchronized. Social implications Despite the rise of globalization and of new technologies, the author has seen substantial divergences in house prices emerge across gateway cities and metros in less vibrant areas within countries. These reflect not only the impact of stronger income and population in more tech, educated and global oriented cities but also changes in the demand for amenities toward more culturally appealing cities, often – but not exclusively in – warmer or coastal areas where the supply elasticity of housing is often limited. Further complicating investment decisions are potential shifts in housing or immigration policy that can notably affect the demand for housing. Originality/value The paper provides practical perspective on why different groups of international cities have seen their house prices become more sychronized. Nevertheless, increased synchronization has occurred within an elite set of major cities, but in an environment house prices have diverged across gateway cities and metros in less vibrant areas within countries. The paper helps investors make sense of some recent patterns and recent prospects for investing in international real estate.

Energy performance certificates in the Turin real estate market

2017 ◽  
Vol 10 (2) ◽  
pp. 149-169 ◽  
Author(s):  
Elena Fregonara ◽  
Diana Rolando ◽  
Patrizia Semeraro
Keyword(s):  
Real Estate ◽  
House Prices ◽  
Energy Performance ◽  
Real Estate Market ◽  
Market Liquidity ◽  
Hedonic Model ◽  
Price Variation ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Time On The Market ◽  
The Impact

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to assess the impact of the Energy Performance Certificate (EPC) on the Italian real estate market, focusing on old buildings. The contribution of EPC labels to house prices and to market liquidity was measured to analyze different aspects of the selling process. Design/methodology/approach A traditional hedonic model was used to explain the variables of listing price, transaction price, time on the market and bargaining outcome. In addition to EPC labels, the building construction period and the main features of apartments were included in the model. A sample of 879 transactions of old properties in Turin in 2011-2014 was considered. Findings A first hedonic model let us suppose that low EPC labels (E, F and G) were priced in the market although EPC labels explained only 6-8 per cent of price variation. A second full hedonic model, which included apartment characteristics, revealed that EPC labels had no impact on prices. Originality/value In Italy EPC has been mandatory for house transactions since 2009, so there are few studies on the effect of EPC on the Italian real estate market at least to our knowledge. Furthermore, unusually for the Italian context, in this paper also transaction prices were analyzed, in addition to the more frequently used listing prices.

CEO behavior and sustainability performance: the moderating role of corporate governance

2021 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Amel Kouaib ◽  
Asma Bouzouitina ◽  
Anis Jarboui
Keyword(s):  
Corporate Governance ◽  
Real Estate ◽  
Corporate Sustainability ◽  
Least Square ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Sustainability Performance ◽  
Corporate Sustainability Performance ◽  
Good Corporate Governance ◽  
Governance Practices ◽  
The Impact

PurposeThis paper explores how the tension between a firm's CEO overconfidence feature and externally observable hubris attribute may determine the level of corporate sustainability performance. This work also contemplates the impact of the moderator “corporate governance practices.”Design/methodology/approachThis study uses a sample of 658 firm-year-observations using a sample of European real estate firms indexed on Stoxx Europe 600 Index from 2006 to 2019. To test the developed hypotheses, feasible generalized least square (FGLS) regression is applied.FindingsFindings suggest that a good corporate governance score strengthens the positive effect of the psychological bias (CEO overconfidence) on corporate sustainability performance while it fails to attenuate the negative effect of the cognitive bias (CEO hubris).Research limitations/implicationsThe research provides an overview of the impact of CEO personality traits on the corporate sustainability performance level in the European real estate sup-sector. As corporate governance can have a major impact to control these traits, the authors recommend European real estate companies to improve their corporate governance practices.Originality/valueThis study contributes to the existent literature this gap with two empirical novelties: (1) providing a novel insight into sustainability involvement using a sample of European real estate sup-sector and (2) investigating the moderating effect on the link between CEO psychological and cognitive biases and sustainability performance. This study provides empirical evidence that entrenchment problems arising from CEO hubris would not be mitigated by a good corporate governance practice.

scholarly journals Examining the spatial relationship between environmental health factors and house prices

2018 ◽  
Vol 11 (3) ◽  
pp. 353-398 ◽  
Author(s):  
Michael J. McCord ◽  
Sean MacIntyre ◽  
Paul Bidanset ◽  
Daniel Lo ◽  
Peadar Davis
Keyword(s):  
Air Quality ◽  
Environmental Quality ◽  
House Prices ◽  
Management Strategies ◽  
Noise Pollution ◽  
Well Being ◽  
Spatial Modelling ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Health And Well Being

Purpose Air quality, noise and proximity to urban infrastructure can arguably have an important impact on the quality of life. Environmental quality (the price of good health) has become a central tenet for consumer choice in urban locales when deciding on a residential neighbourhood. Unlike the market for most tangible goods, the market for environmental quality does not yield an observable per unit price effect. As no explicit price exists for a unit of environmental quality, this paper aims to use the housing market to derive its implicit price and test whether these constituent elements of health and well-being are indeed capitalised into property prices and thus implicitly priced in the market place. Design/methodology/approach A considerable number of studies have used hedonic pricing models by incorporating spatial effects to assess the impact of air quality, noise and proximity to noise pollutants on property market pricing. This study presents a spatial analysis of air quality and noise pollution and their association with house prices, using 2,501 sale transactions for the period 2013. To assess the impact of the pollutants, three different spatial modelling approaches are used, namely, ordinary least squares using spatial dummies, a geographically weighted regression (GWR) and a spatial lag model (SLM). Findings The findings suggest that air quality pollutants have an adverse impact on house prices, which fluctuate across the urban area. The analysis suggests that the noise level does matter, although this varies significantly over the urban setting and varies by source. Originality/value Air quality and environmental noise pollution are important concerns for health and well-being. Noise impact seems to depend not only on the noise intensity to which dwellings are exposed but also on the nature of the noise source. This may suggest the presence of other externalities that arouse social aversion. This research presents an original study utilising advanced spatial modelling approaches. The research has value in further understanding the market impact of environmental factors and in providing findings to support local air zone management strategies, noise abatement and management strategies and is of value to the wider urban planning and public health disciplines.

scholarly journals Reading on and between the lines: risk identification in collaborative and adversarial buyer–supplier relationships

2018 ◽  
Vol 23 (4) ◽  
pp. 351-376 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yiyi Fan ◽  
Mark Stevenson
Keyword(s):  
Social Capital ◽  
Supply Chain ◽  
Risk Identification ◽  
Social Capital Theory ◽  
Future Research ◽  
Supplier Relationships ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Signalling Theory ◽  
Multi Level ◽  
The Impact

Purpose This paper aims to investigate how supply chain risks can be identified in both collaborative and adversarial buyer–supplier relationships (BSRs). Design/methodology/approach This research includes a multiple-case study involving ten Chinese manufacturers with two informants per organisation. Data have been interpreted from a multi-level social capital perspective (i.e. from both an individual and organisational level), supplemented by signalling theory. Findings Buyers use different risk identification strategies or apply the same strategy in different ways according to the BSR type. The impact of organisational social capital on risk identification is contingent upon the degree to which individual social capital is deployed in a way that benefits an individual’s own agenda versus that of the organisation. Signalling theory generally complements social capital theory and helps further understand how buyers can identify risks, especially in adversarial BSRs, e.g. by using indirect signals from suppliers or other supply chain actors to “read between the lines” and anticipate risks. Research limitations/implications Data collection is focussed on China and is from the buyer side only. Future research could explore other contexts and include the supplier perspective. Practical implications The types of relationships that are developed by buyers with their supply chain partners at an organisational and an individual level have implications for risk exposure and how risks can be identified. The multi-level analysis highlights how strategies such as employee rotation and retention can be deployed to support risk identification. Originality/value Much of the extant literature on supply chain risk management is focussed on risk mitigation, whereas risk identification is under-represented. A unique case-based insight is provided into risk identification in different types of BSRs by using a multi-level social capital approach complemented by signalling theory.

scholarly journals Cap rates and risk: a spatial analysis of commercial real estate

2018 ◽  
Vol 35 (1) ◽  
pp. 25-43
Author(s):  
Florian Unbehaun ◽  
Franz Fuerst
Keyword(s):  
Real Estate ◽  
Risk Perceptions ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Risk Premia ◽  
Real Estate Market ◽  
Commercial Real Estate ◽  
Data Series ◽  
Large Set ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Impact

Purpose This study aims to assess the impact of location on capitalization rates and risk premia. Design/methodology/approach Using a transaction-based data series for the five largest office markets in Germany from 2005 to 2015, regression analysis is performed to account for a large set of asset-level drivers such as location, age and size and time-varying macro-level drivers. Findings Location is found to be a key determinant of cap rates and risk premia. CBD locations are found to attract lower cap rates and lower risk premia in three of the five largest markets in Germany. Interestingly, this effect is not found in the non-CBD locations of these markets, suggesting that the lower perceived risk associated with these large markets is restricted to a relatively small area within these markets that are reputed to be safe investments. Research limitations/implications The findings imply that investors view properties in peripheral urban locations as imperfect substitutes for CBD properties. Further analysis also shows that these risk premia are not uniformly applied across real estate asset types. The CBD risk effect is particularly pronounced for office and retail assets, apparently considered “prime” investments within the central locations. Originality/value This is one of the first empirical studies of the risk implications of peripheral commercial real estate locations. It is also one of the first large-scale cap rate analyses of the German commercial real estate market. The results demonstrate that risk perceptions of investors have a distinct spatial dimension.

Real estate development in the city of Athens during the financial crisis

2021 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Maria Nikitidou ◽  
Fragiskos Archontakis ◽  
Athanasios Tagkalakis
Keyword(s):  
Financial Crisis ◽  
Real Estate ◽  
Structural Characteristics ◽  
House Prices ◽  
Real Estate Market ◽  
Structural Factors ◽  
Data Set ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Capital Financing ◽  
The City

Purpose This study aims to determine how the prices of residential properties in the Greek real estate sector are affected by their structural characteristics and by the prevailing economic factors during recession. Design/methodology/approach Based on 13,835 valuation reports for the city of Athens, covering a period of 11 years (2006–2016), this study develops a series of econometric models, taking into account both structural characteristics of the property market and the macroeconomic relevant variables. Finally, the city of Athens is divided into sub-regions and the different effects of the structural factors in each area are investigated via spatial analysis confirming the validity of the baseline model. Findings Findings show that the size, age, level, parking and storage space can explain the property price movements. Moreover, the authors find evidence that it is primarily house demand variables (e.g. the annual average wage, the unemployment rate, the user cost of capital, financing constraints and expectations about the future course of the house market) that affect house prices in a statistically significant manner and with the correct sign. Finally, using a difference-in-differences approach, this study finds that an increase in house demand (on account of net migration) led to higher house prices in smaller and older than in larger and younger apartments in areas with high concentration of immigrants. Originality/value This study uses a novel data set to help entities, individuals and policy-makers to understand how the recent economic and financial crisis has affected the real estate market in Athens.

Real estate risk, yield modelling and market sentiment: the impact on pricing in European office markets

2021 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Tony McGough ◽  
Jim Berry
Keyword(s):  
Real Estate ◽  
International Capital ◽  
Content Type ◽  
International Capital Markets ◽  
Real Estate Markets ◽  
Market Sentiment ◽  
Office Markets ◽  
Risk Pricing ◽  
Changes In Risk ◽  
The Impact

PurposeThe financial and economic turmoil that resulted from the Global Financial Crisis (GFC), included a marked increase in the volatility in real estate markets. Property asset prices were impacted by the real economy and market sentiment, particularly concerning the determination of risk. In an economic downturn, the perception of investment risk becomes increasingly important relative to overall total returns, and thus impacts on yields and performance of assets. In a recovery phase, and particularly within an environment of historically low government bonds, risk and return compete for importance. The aim of this paper is to assess the interrelationships and impacts on pricing between real estate risk, yield modelling outcomes and market sentiment in selective European city office markets.Design/methodology/approachThis paper specifically considers the modelling of commercial property pricing in relation to the appetite for risk in the financial markets. The paper expands on previous work by determining a specific measure of risk pricing in relationship to changing financial market sentiment. The methodology underpinning the research specifically examines the scope for using national and international risk pricing within specific real estate markets in Europe.FindingsThis paper addresses whether there is a difference between the impact of risk on the pricing of real estate in international versus regional cities in Europe. The analysis, therefore, determines which city centre office markets in Europe have been most impacted by globalisation including the magnitude on real estate prices and market volatility. The outcome of the paper provides important insights into how changes in risk preferences in the international capital markets have driven and continues to drive yield movements under different market conditions.Research limitations/implicationsThe paper considers the driving forces which have led to the volatile movements of yields, emanating from the GFC.Practical implicationsThis paper considers the property market effects on pricing of commercial real estate and the drivers in selected European cities.Originality/valueThe outcome of the paper provides important insights into how changes in risk preferences in the international capital markets have driven and continue to drive the yield movements in different real estate markets in Europe.

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