The Ecology of Pathogen Spillover and Disease Emergence at the Human-Wildlife-Environment Interface

AbstractLevels and seasonal patterns of parasite challenge to livestock are likely to be affected by climate change, through direct effects on life cycle stages outside the definitive host and through alterations in management that affect exposure and susceptibility. Net effects and options for adapting to them will depend very strongly on details of the system under consideration. This short paper is not a comprehensive review of climate change effects on parasites, but rather seeks to identify key areas in which detail is important and arguably under-recognized in supporting farmer adaptation. I argue that useful predictions should take fuller account of system-specific properties that influence disease emergence, and not just the effects of climatic variables on parasite biology. At the same time, excessive complexity is ill-suited to useful farm-level decision support. Dealing effectively with the ‘devil of detail’ in this area will depend on finding the right balance, and will determine our success in applying science to climate change adaptation by farmers.

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Wildlife Trade and Global Disease Emergence

Emerging Infectious Diseases ◽

10.3201/eid1107.050194 ◽

2005 ◽

Vol 11 (7) ◽

pp. 1000-1002 ◽

Cited By ~ 237

Author(s):

William B. Karesh ◽

Robert A. Cook ◽

Elizabeth L. Bennett ◽

James Newcomb

Keyword(s):

Wildlife Trade ◽

Disease Emergence

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Insurance and Epidemics: SARS, West Nile Virus and Nipah Virus

Journal of Insurance Medicine ◽

10.17849/insm-49-1-37-45.1 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 49 (1) ◽

pp. 37-45

Author(s):

Jan von Overbeck

Keyword(s):

Global Economy ◽

Insurance Industry ◽

Nipah Virus ◽

Major Contributor ◽

Human History ◽

Disease Emergence ◽

Economic Stability ◽

Societal Impacts ◽

The Right ◽

Highly Virulent

Severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) reminds us that sudden disease emergence is a permanent part of our world—and should be anticipated in our planning. Historically the emergence of new diseases has had little or no impact beyond a small, localized cluster of infections. However, given just the right conditions, a highly virulent pathogen can suddenly spread across time and space with massive consequences, as has occurred on several occasions in human history. In the wake of the SARS outbreak, we are now forced to confront the unpleasant fact that human activities are increasing the frequency and severity of these kinds of emergences. The idea of more frequent biological ‘‘invasions’’ with economic and societal impacts comparable to SARS, presents stakeholders in the global economy with unprecedented new risks, challenges and even opportunities. As a major contributor to economic stability, the insurance industry must follow these trends very closely and develop scenarios to anticipate these events.

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Host Range Evolution of Potyviruses: A Global Phylogenetic Analysis

Viruses ◽

10.3390/v12010111 ◽

2020 ◽

Vol 12 (1) ◽

pp. 111 ◽

Cited By ~ 2

Author(s):

Benoît Moury ◽

Cécile Desbiez

Keyword(s):

Phylogenetic Analysis ◽

Host Range ◽

Plant Species ◽

Control Strategies ◽

Ecological Factors ◽

Plant Viruses ◽

Range Data ◽

Disease Emergence ◽

Host Range Evolution ◽

Ecological Mechanisms

Virus host range, i.e., the number and diversity of host species of viruses, is an important determinant of disease emergence and of the efficiency of disease control strategies. However, for plant viruses, little is known about the genetic or ecological factors involved in the evolution of host range. Using available genome sequences and host range data, we performed a phylogenetic analysis of host range evolution in the genus Potyvirus, a large group of plant RNA viruses that has undergone a radiative evolution circa 7000 years ago, contemporaneously with agriculture intensification in mid Holocene. Maximum likelihood inference based on a set of 59 potyviruses and 38 plant species showed frequent host range changes during potyvirus evolution, with 4.6 changes per plant species on average, including 3.1 host gains and 1.5 host loss. These changes were quite recent, 74% of them being inferred on the terminal branches of the potyvirus tree. The most striking result was the high frequency of correlated host gains occurring repeatedly in different branches of the potyvirus tree, which raises the question of the dependence of the molecular and/or ecological mechanisms involved in adaptation to different plant species.

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Anticipating the emergence of infectious diseases

Journal of The Royal Society Interface ◽

10.1098/rsif.2017.0115 ◽

2017 ◽

Vol 14 (132) ◽

pp. 20170115 ◽

Cited By ~ 22

Author(s):

Tobias S. Brett ◽

John M. Drake ◽

Pejman Rohani

Keyword(s):

Large Scale ◽

Simulated Data ◽

Disease Emergence ◽

General Applicability ◽

Slowing Down ◽

Animal Populations ◽

Theoretical Predictions ◽

Parameter Values ◽

Model Structures ◽

Good Support

In spite of medical breakthroughs, the emergence of pathogens continues to pose threats to both human and animal populations. We present candidate approaches for anticipating disease emergence prior to large-scale outbreaks. Through use of ideas from the theories of dynamical systems and stochastic processes we develop approaches which are not specific to a particular disease system or model, but instead have general applicability. The indicators of disease emergence detailed in this paper can be classified into two parallel approaches: a set of early-warning signals based around the theory of critical slowing down and a likelihood-based approach. To test the reliability of these two approaches we contrast theoretical predictions with simulated data. We find good support for our methods across a range of different model structures and parameter values.

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A qualitative study of zoonotic risk factors among rural communities in southern China

International Health ◽

10.1093/inthealth/ihaa001 ◽

2020 ◽

Vol 12 (2) ◽

pp. 77-85 ◽

Cited By ~ 7

Author(s):

Hong-Ying Li ◽

Guang-Jian Zhu ◽

Yun-Zhi Zhang ◽

Li-Biao Zhang ◽

Emily A Hagan ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Risk Factors ◽

Rural Communities ◽

Risk Mitigation ◽

Southern China ◽

Zoonotic Disease ◽

Local Communities ◽

Mitigation Strategies ◽

Disease Emergence ◽

Ethnographic Interviews ◽

Zoonotic Risk

Abstract Background Strategies are urgently needed to mitigate the risk of zoonotic disease emergence in southern China, where pathogens with zoonotic potential are known to circulate in wild animal populations. However, the risk factors leading to emergence are poorly understood, which presents a challenge in developing appropriate mitigation strategies for local communities. Methods Residents in rural communities of Yunnan, Guangxi and Guangdong provinces were recruited and enrolled in this study. Data were collected through ethnographic interviews and field observations, and thematically coded and analysed to identify both risk and protective factors for zoonotic disease emergence at the individual, community and policy levels. Results Eighty-eight ethnographic interviews and 55 field observations were conducted at nine selected sites. Frequent human–animal interactions and low levels of environmental biosecurity in local communities were identified as risks for zoonotic disease emergence. Policies and programmes existing in the communities provide opportunities for zoonotic risk mitigation. Conclusions This study explored the relationship among zoonotic risk and human behaviour, environment and policies in rural communities in southern China. It identifies key behavioural risk factors that can be targeted for development of tailored risk-mitigation strategies to reduce the threat of novel zoonoses.

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