Pneumonia Incidence Rate Predictive Model of Nonlinear Time Series Based on Dynamic Learning Rate BP Neural Network

2010 ◽  
pp. 739-749 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ma Liang-liang ◽  
Tian Fu-peng
Keyword(s):  
Neural Network ◽  
Time Series ◽  
Predictive Model ◽  
Incidence Rate ◽  
Bp Neural Network ◽  
Nonlinear Time Series ◽  
Learning Rate ◽  
Dynamic Learning

Nonlinear Time Series Prediction Using High Precision Neural Network

2011 ◽  
Vol 48-49 ◽  
pp. 745-748
Author(s):  
Jie Hua Zhou ◽  
Xia Fu Peng ◽  
Li Sang Liu
Keyword(s):  
Neural Network ◽  
Time Series ◽  
Correlation Analysis ◽  
High Precision ◽  
Bp Neural Network ◽  
Prediction Accuracy ◽  
Nonlinear Time Series ◽  
Good Prediction ◽  
Correlation Degree ◽  
Hidden Node

A new type of high precision back propagation (BP) neural network model was proposed and applied to nonlinear time series for improving its prediction accuracy. In order to optimize the neural network structure, it uses the correlation analysis to select the number of input node for BP neural network at first. Second, it uses grey clustering method to select the initial number of hidden node for BP neural network, then using the grey correlation analysis method to analyze the correlation degree between hidden node output and network output and according to the size of correlation degree to delete the redundant hidden nodes. Meanwhile, in order to improve model prediction accuracy, it increases the direct connection between the input layer and output layer. Finally, prediction results show that the proposed model has good prediction capability.

Research on Improved BP Learning Algorithm of BP Neural Network

2013 ◽  
Vol 765-767 ◽  
pp. 1644-1647 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jian Li Chu ◽  
Hong Yan Li ◽  
Xiao Ji Chen
Keyword(s):  
Neural Network ◽  
Conjugate Gradient ◽  
Bp Neural Network ◽  
Learning Algorithm ◽  
Error Function ◽  
Learning Rate ◽  
Good Effect ◽  
Dynamic Learning ◽  
Neural Network Learning ◽  
Hidden Layer

Aiming at the existence of the BP neural network learning algorithm in the slow learning speed, the possibility of failure is large, poor generalization ability, there are multiple issues, extreme value point and network structure are difficult to determine, in this paper, we study algorithm improvement methods. Explain the algorithm principle, on the basis of three improved methods are studied, respectively is dynamic learning rate, conjugate gradient, improved error function. Among them, the dynamic learning rate, it reaches the learning rate of the hidden layer and output layer; Conjugate gradient, this paper gives three calculating formula; Improved error function, to solve different problems are also given in three types of error function. BP learning algorithm in this paper, the research contents, make the convergence stability, convergence speed, initial value sensitivity, it has good effect, which has large significant in terms of academic and applied significance.

scholarly journals Nonlinear Time-Series Analysis of Pulsation of Post-AGB Stars by Genetic Algorithm/Neural Network Hybrid Systems

2000 ◽  
Vol 176 ◽  
pp. 135-136
Author(s):  
Toshiki Aikawa
Keyword(s):  
Neural Network ◽  
Genetic Algorithm ◽  
Neural Networks ◽  
Time Series ◽  
Artificial Neural Networks ◽  
Hybrid System ◽  
Nonlinear Time Series ◽  
Photometric Data ◽  
Nonlinear Time Series Analysis ◽  
Agb Stars

AbstractSome pulsating post-AGB stars have been observed with an Automatic Photometry Telescope (APT) and a considerable amount of precise photometric data has been accumulated for these stars. The datasets, however, are still sparse, and this is a problem for applying nonlinear time series: for instance, modeling of attractors by the artificial neural networks (NN) to the datasets. We propose the optimization of data interpolations with the genetic algorithm (GA) and the hybrid system combined with NN. We apply this system to the Mackey–Glass equation, and attempt an analysis of the photometric data of post-AGB variables.

scholarly journals An Air Quality Predictive Model of Licang of Qingdao City Based on BP Neural Network

2013 ◽  
Vol 756-759 ◽  
pp. 3366-3371 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ruo Bo Xin ◽  
Zhi Fang Jiang ◽  
Ning Li ◽  
Lu Jian Hou
Keyword(s):  
Neural Network ◽  
Air Quality ◽  
Predictive Model ◽  
Bp Neural Network ◽  
Ambient Air ◽  
Monitoring Site ◽  
Ambient Air Quality ◽  
Bp Network ◽  
Air Quality Forecast ◽  
Qingdao City

In order to obtain high precision results of urban air quality forecast, we propose a short-term predictive model of air quality in this paper, which is on the basis of the ambient air quality monitoring data and relevant meteorological data of a monitoring site in Licang district of Qingdao city in recent three years. The predictive model is based on BP neural network and used to predict the ambient air quality in the next some day or within a certain period of hours. In the design of the predictive model, we apply LM algorithm, Simulated Annealing algorithm and Early Stopping algorithm into BP network, and use a reasonable method to extract the historical data of two years as the training samples, which are the main reasons why the prediction results are better both in speed and in accuracy. And when predicting within a certain period of hours, we also adopt an average and equivalent idea to reduce the error accuracy, which brings us good results.

scholarly journals Research on GDP Forecast Analysis Combining BP Neural Network and ARIMA Model

2021 ◽  
Vol 2021 ◽  
pp. 1-10
Author(s):  
Shaobo Lu
Keyword(s):  
Neural Network ◽  
Time Series ◽  
Prediction Model ◽  
Error Correction ◽  
Relative Error ◽  
Bp Neural Network ◽  
Arima Model ◽  
Forecast Model ◽  
Price Prediction ◽  
The Neural Network

Based on the BP neural network and the ARIMA model, this paper predicts the nonlinear residual of GDP and adds the predicted values of the two models to obtain the final predicted value of the model. First, the focus is on the ARMA model in the univariate time series. However, in real life, forecasts are often affected by many factors, so the following introduces the ARIMAX model in the multivariate time series. In the prediction process, the network structure and various parameters of the neural network are not given in a systematic way, so the operation of the neural network is affected by many factors. Each forecasting method has its scope of application and also has its own weaknesses caused by the characteristics of its own model. Secondly, this paper proposes an effective combination method according to the GDP characteristics and builds an improved algorithm BP neural network price prediction model, the research on the combination of GDP prediction model is currently mostly focused on the weighted form, and this article proposes another combination, namely, error correction. According to the price characteristics, we determine the appropriate number of hidden layer nodes and build a BP neural network price prediction model based on the improved algorithm. Validation of examples shows that the error-corrected GDP forecast model is also better than the weighted GDP forecast model, which shows that error correction is also a better combination of forecasting methods. The forecast results of BP neural network have lower errors and monthly prices. The relative error of prediction is about 2.5%. Through comparison with the prediction results of the ARIMA model, in the daily price prediction, the relative error of the BP neural network prediction is 1.5%, which is lower than the relative error of the ARIMA model of 2%.

Time Series Forecasting of Tunnel Surrounding Rock Displacement

2011 ◽  
Vol 261-263 ◽  
pp. 1789-1793 ◽  
Author(s):  
Guang Xiang Mao ◽  
Yuan You Xia ◽  
Ling Wei Liu
Keyword(s):  
Neural Network ◽  
Time Series ◽  
Bp Neural Network ◽  
Time Series Prediction ◽  
Surrounding Rock ◽  
Tunnel Construction ◽  
Rock Stress ◽  
Rock Types ◽  
Network Time ◽  
Tunnel Depth

In the process of tunnel construction, because the rock stress redistribute, the vault and the two groups will generate displacement constantly. This paper adopts the genetic algorithm to optimize the weight and threshold of BP neural network, taking the tunnel depth, rock types and part measured values of displacement as input parameters to construct a neural network time series prediction model of tunnel surrounding rock displacement. The method proposed in the paper has been applied in the Ma Tou Tang tunnel construction successfully, and the results show that the model can predict the displacement of the surrounding rock quickly and accurately.

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