Impacts of Climate Change Over the Eastern Mediterranean and Middle East Region Using the Hadley Centre PRECIS RCM

Abstract. Recent and future changes in temperature and precipitation climate extremes are estimated using the Hadley Centre PRECIS climate model for the Eastern Mediterranean and Middle East region. The area of interest is considered vulnerable to extreme climate events as there is evidence for a temperature rise while precipitation tends to decline, suggesting likely effects on vital socioeconomic sectors in the region. Observations have been obtained for the recent period (1961–1990) and used to evaluate the model output. The spatial distribution of recent temporal trends in temperature indicates strong increasing in minimum temperature over the eastern Balkan Peninsula, Turkey and the Arabian Peninsula. The rate of warming reaches 0.4–0.5 °C decade−1 in a large part of the domain, while warming is expected to be strongest in summer (0.6–0.7 °C decade−1) in the E-Balkans and W-Turkey. The trends in annual and summer maximum temperature are estimated at approximately 0.5 and 0.6 °C decade−1. Recent estimates do not indicate statistically significant trends in precipitation except for individual sub-regions. Results indicate a future warming trend for the study area over the last 30 yr of the 21st century. Trends are estimated to be positive and statistically significant in nearly the entire region. The annual trend patterns for both minimum and maximum temperature show warming rates of approximately 0.4–0.6 °C decade−1, with pronounced warming over the Middle Eastern countries. Summer temperatures reveal a gradual warming (0.5–0.9 °C decade−1) over much of the region. The model projects drying trends by 5–30% in annual precipitation towards the end of the 21st century, with the number of wet days decreasing at the rate of 10–30 days yr−1, while heavy precipitation is likely to decrease in the high-elevation areas by 15 days yr−1.

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Impacts of Climate Change on the Eastern Mediterranean and the Middle East and North Africa Region and the Water–Energy Nexus

Atmosphere ◽

10.3390/atmos10080455 ◽

2019 ◽

Vol 10 (8) ◽

pp. 455 ◽

Cited By ~ 2

Author(s):

Manfred A. Lange

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Middle East ◽

North Africa ◽

Heat Waves ◽

Eastern Mediterranean ◽

Mena Region ◽

Large Variability ◽

Mitigation And Adaptation ◽

Water Energy Nexus ◽

Impacts Of Climate Change

The present paper aims to elucidate impacts of climate change on the availability and security of water and energy in the Middle East and North Africa region (MENA region; including the Eastern Mediterranean) in the context of the water–energy nexus. It largely builds on existing knowledge and understanding and aims to present a review of existing information on this topic. The region is particularly challenged by a number of factors, including the large variability of bio-geographical characteristics, extreme population growth over the last few decades, and substantial societal and economical transitions, as well as armed conflicts in some of the countries in the region. Anticipated changes in climate conditions will exacerbate the challenges regarding water and energy security in the region. Major impacts of climate change include a significant increase in summer temperatures, which will lead to a growing number of heat waves, primarily in urban structures. A general decrease in precipitation in many of the MENA countries is foreseen, resulting in enhanced droughts and a growing number of dry spells. In addressing energy and water scarcities and their mutual interrelationships, an integrated water–energy nexus concept offers promising prospects to improve environmental, climate, human, and political security. However, only very few countries in the MENA region have presently implemented such a concept. Mitigation and adaptation strategies addressing water and energy scarcity include enhanced efficiency of resource use, integrated technology assessments regarding electricity generation, and a stronger reliance on renewable/solar technologies. While looking at the MENA region as a whole, some emphasis will be given to Cyprus and the Eastern Mediterranean.

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Middle East

Tourism Economics ◽

10.1177/135481669800400307 ◽

1998 ◽

Vol 4 (3) ◽

pp. 285-296 ◽

Cited By ~ 1

Author(s):

Raphael Raymond Bar-On

Keyword(s):

Middle East ◽

Eastern Mediterranean ◽

Northern Africa ◽

International Tourism ◽

East Region ◽

International Tourist ◽

The World ◽

World Tourism Organization ◽

Tourism Organization ◽

Middle East Region

The World Tourism Organization (WTO) reported 14.8 million international tourist arrivals (excluding day-visits) in its Middle East region in 1997, 4.9% above 1996, and 36.0 million in its ‘Expanded Middle East’ region (including Eastern Mediterranean and Northern Africa). Receipts reported from international tourism in the Middle East region totalled US$10 billion, 13% above 1996 (in current US$, including receipts from day-visitors, excluding International Fares) and US$24 billion in the ‘Expanded Middle East’ region. Tourist arrivals, receipts and hotel capacity are presented for 13 countries of the Middle East region and 9 related countries.

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An evaluation of Climate Change and Water Scarcity as a causative factor of Political Instability in the Middle East Region: The Case of Syria

International Journal of Social Science and Human Research ◽

10.47191/ijsshr/v4-i7-39 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 04 (07) ◽

Author(s):

Abraham Lubem, Abado ◽

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Middle East ◽

Water Scarcity ◽

Political Instability ◽

Causative Factor ◽

East Region ◽

Causative Factors ◽

Almost All ◽

The Arab Spring ◽

Middle East Region

The Middle East region has been thrown into a theatre of conflicts in recent decades, with almost all the countries in the region been affected by one conflict or the other. Notable among them conflicts is the Arab spring, which saw the toppling of most dictatorial regimes in the region, others include the conflicts in Yemen, Iraq, Libya, Syria, Palestine, among others. The true causative factors of these conflicts and political upheavals in the Middle East region have still been debated. It is predicating on this background that this paper seeks to; trace the root(s) of the conflicts in the Middle East Region. The paper links the exacerbating effects of climate change, and water scarcity to the political instability in Syria, and the Middle East in general. The paper traces the genesis of the conflict to the worst global faming in 100 years, which drove food crises, especially bread to an all-time high. The situation is identified to have resulted to a water scarcity, as well as forced both crop and animals’ farmers out of their source of living in Syria.

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Thermo-Tectonic History of the Eastern Mediterranean-Middle East Region, Based on Geohistory Analysis

AAPG Bulletin ◽

10.1306/d9cb5237-1715-11d7-8645000102c1865d ◽

1993 ◽

Vol 77 ◽

Author(s):

BISHOP, RICHARD S., and PETER P. Mc

Keyword(s):

Middle East ◽

Eastern Mediterranean ◽

Tectonic History ◽

East Region ◽

History Of ◽

Middle East Region

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Spatio-temporal patterns of recent and future climate extremes in the eastern Mediterranean and Middle East region

Natural Hazards and Earth System Science ◽

10.5194/nhess-14-1565-2014 ◽

2014 ◽

Vol 14 (6) ◽

pp. 1565-1577 ◽

Cited By ~ 23

Author(s):

E. Kostopoulou ◽

C. Giannakopoulos ◽

M. Hatzaki ◽

A. Karali ◽

P. Hadjinicolaou ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Middle East ◽

21St Century ◽

Eastern Mediterranean ◽

Temporal Trends ◽

Climate Extremes ◽

Maximum Temperature ◽

Western Turkey ◽

Area Of Interest ◽

East Region ◽

Middle East Region

Abstract. Recent and future changes in temperature and precipitation climate extremes are estimated using the Hadley Centre PRECIS ("Providing REgional Climates for Impacts Studies") climate model for the eastern Mediterranean and Middle East region. The area of interest is considered vulnerable to extreme climate events as there is evidence for a temperature rise while precipitation tends to decline, suggesting likely effects on vital socioeconomic sectors in the region. Observations have been obtained for the recent period (1961–1990) and used to evaluate the model output. The spatial distribution of recent temporal trends in temperature indicates strong increasing in minimum temperature over the eastern Balkan Peninsula, Turkey and the Arabian Peninsula. The rate of warming reaches 0.4–0.5 °C decade−1 in a large part of the domain, while warming is expected to be strongest in summer (0.6–0.7 °C decade−1) in the eastern Balkans and western Turkey. The trends in annual and summer maximum temperature are estimated at approximately 0.5 and 0.6 °C decade−1 respectively. Recent estimates do not indicate statistically significant trends in precipitation except for individual sub-regions. Results indicate a future warming trend for the study area over the last 30 years of the 21st century. Trends are estimated to be positive and statistically significant in nearly the entire region. The annual trend patterns for both minimum and maximum temperature show warming rates of approximately 0.4–0.6 °C decade−1, with pronounced warming over the Middle Eastern countries. Summer temperatures reveal a gradual warming (0.5–0.9 °C decade−1) over much of the region. The model projects drying trends by 5–30% in annual precipitation towards the end of the 21st century, with the number of wet days decreasing at the rate of 10–30 days year−1, while heavy precipitation is likely to decrease in the high-elevation areas by 15 days year−1.

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