500-year Winter Temperature and Precipitation Variability over the Mediterranean Area and its Connection to the Large-scale Atmospheric Circulation

2003 ◽  
pp. 133-153 ◽  
Author(s):  
J. Luterbacher ◽  
E. Xoplaki
Keyword(s):  
Atmospheric Circulation ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Mediterranean Area ◽  
Precipitation Variability ◽  
Winter Temperature ◽  
Temperature And Precipitation ◽  
The Mediterranean ◽  
Large Scale Atmospheric Circulation

The main features of large-scale atmospheric circulation in the context of analyzing the consensus forecast of air temperature and precipitation for the 2020 Northern Eurasia summer

2021 ◽  
pp. 20-35
Author(s):  
R.M. Vilfand ◽  
◽  
K.A. Sumerova , ◽  
V.A. Tishchenko ◽  
V.M. Khan ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Atmospheric Circulation ◽  
Air Temperature ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Precipitation Forecast ◽  
Northern Eurasia ◽  
Temperature And Precipitation ◽  
Skill Scores ◽  
Circulation Indices ◽  
Arctic Ice ◽  
Large Scale Atmospheric Circulation

The main results of the analysis of the Northern Hemisphere large-scale atmospheric circulation features are presented for the 2020 summer. Skill scores of the consensus forecast for the 2020 Northern Eurasia summer are discussed in the context of analyzing the large-scale atmospheric circulation. The prognostic potential of the trend component in forecasting seasonal anomalies of air temperature and precipitation is noted. Keywords: air temperature, precipitation, forecast skill, trends, large-scale atmospheric circulation, sea surface temperature, NEACOF, circulation indices, Arctic ice

Precipitation variability in the Meuse basin in relation to atmospheric circulation

2005 ◽  
Vol 51 (5) ◽  
pp. 5-14 ◽  
Author(s):  
M. Tu ◽  
P.J.M. de Laat ◽  
M.J. Hall ◽  
M.J.M. de Wit
Keyword(s):  
Statistical Analysis ◽  
Atmospheric Circulation ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Precipitation Variability ◽  
Past Century ◽  
The Past ◽  
Winter Half ◽  
Summer Half ◽  
Large Scale Atmospheric Circulation ◽  
Precipitation Events

The distribution of precipitation events in the Meuse basin during the past century has been found to reflect the large-scale atmospheric circulation, as characterised by the Grosswetterlagen system. Statistical analysis of the long observation records (1911–2002) for the basin showed that although the annual (November to October) and winter half-year (November to April) frequencies of wet days (≥1 mm/day) were nearly stable, the associated precipitation amounts have significantly increased since 1980. From 1980 onwards, the very wet days (≥10 mm/day) in the winter half-year have become more frequent. No obvious change was identified for the summer half-year (May to October) very wet days. Both the precipitation amounts of wet and very wet days in the winter half-year and the occurrence of associated atmospheric circulation of the types/sub-types west cyclone, southwest cyclone and northwest cyclone showed a significant increase around 1980.

Climatic features of the 2020/2021 winter season and the air temperature and precipitation outlook for the summer of 2021 over Northern Eurasia

2021 ◽  
Vol 2 ◽  
pp. 6-19
Author(s):  
V.M. Khan ◽  
◽  
R.M. Vilfand ◽  
E.V. Emelina ◽  
E.S. Kaverina ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Atmospheric Circulation ◽  
Air Temperature ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Winter Season ◽  
Northern Eurasia ◽  
Consensus Forecasts ◽  
Temperature And Precipitation ◽  
Skill Scores ◽  
Large Scale Atmospheric Circulation ◽  
Climatic Features

Climatic features of the 2020/2021 winter season and the air temperature and precipitation outlook for the summer of 2021 over Northern Eurasia / Khan V.M., Vilfand R.M., Emelina E.V., Kaverina E.S., Kulikova I.A., Sumerova K.A., Tischenko V.A. // Hydrometeorological Research and Forecasting, 2021, no. 2 (380), pp. 6-19. The main features of the Northern Hemisphere large-scale atmospheric circulation are analyzed for the past 2020/2021 winter. The accuracy of consensus forecasts of air temperature and precipitation compiled during the work of the 19th session of the North Eurasian Climate Outlook Forum (NEACOF-19) is presented, with the skill scores of consensus forecasts for Northern Eurasia. The main features of the thermal state of the ocean and large-scale atmospheric circulation for the coming summer of 2021 are considered and analyzed. A forecast of surface air temperature and precipitation anomalies for the summer of 2021 agreed with the NEACOF-20 experts is formulated. Keywords: North Eurasian Climate Outlook Forum, North Eurasian Climate Center, consensus forecast, air temperature, precipitation, large-scale atmospheric circulation, hydrodynamic models, sea surface temperature

scholarly journals Evidence of climate shift for temperature and precipitation extremes across Gansu Province in China

2019 ◽  
Vol 139 (3-4) ◽  
pp. 1137-1149 ◽  
Author(s):  
Dong An ◽  
Yiheng Du ◽  
Ronny Berndtsson ◽  
Zuirong Niu ◽  
Linus Zhang ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Atmospheric Circulation ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Extreme Temperature ◽  
Gansu Province ◽  
Precipitation Extremes ◽  
Climate Shift ◽  
Extreme Climate ◽  
Temperature And Precipitation ◽  
Large Scale Atmospheric Circulation ◽  
Extreme Indices

AbstractTemperature and precipitation extremes are the dominant causes of natural disasters. In this study, seven indices of extreme temperature and precipitation events in Gansu Province, China, were analysed for the period 1961–2017. An abrupt climate shift was recorded during 1980–1981. Thus, the study period was divided into a preshift (before the climate shift) period 1961–1980 and an aftshift (after the climate shift) period 1981–2017. Comparison of mean extreme indices for preshift and aftshift periods was performed for the purpose of exploring possible increasing/decreasing patterns. Generalized extreme value (GEV) distribution was applied spatially to fit the extreme indices with return periods up to 100 years for preshift/aftshift periods. Singular value decomposition (SVD) was adopted to investigate possible correlation between the extreme climate events and indices of large-scale atmospheric circulation. The results indicate that changes in mean and return levels between the preshift and aftshift periods vary significantly in time and space for different extreme indices. Increase in extreme temperature regarding magnitude and frequency for the aftshift period as compared with the preshift period suggests a change to a warmer and more extreme climate during recent years. Changes in precipitation extremes were different in southern and northern parts of Gansu. The precipitation extremes in the north have increased that can result in more serious floods and droughts in the future. SVD analyses revealed a complex pattern of correlation between climate extremes and indices of large-scale atmospheric circulation. Strengthening of westerlies and weakening of the south summer monsoon contribute to the complex changing patterns of precipitation extremes. Results in this study will contribute to disaster risk prevention and better water management in this area.

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