Optimal Intertemporal Pricing of Resource Stocks: The Case of Fossil Fuel Extraction and Atmospheric CO2 Deposits

2003 ◽  
pp. 291-314
Author(s):  
Klaus Conrad
Keyword(s):  
Fossil Fuel ◽  
Atmospheric Co2 ◽  
Intertemporal Pricing

scholarly journals What can be learned about carbon cycle climate feedbacks from the CO<sub>2</sub> airborne fraction?

2010 ◽  
Vol 10 (16) ◽  
pp. 7739-7751 ◽  
Author(s):  
M. Gloor ◽  
J. L. Sarmiento ◽  
N. Gruber
Keyword(s):  
Land Use ◽  
Fossil Fuel ◽  
Carbon Sink ◽  
Volcanic Eruptions ◽  
Atmospheric Co2 ◽  
Anthropogenic Emissions ◽  
Term Trend ◽  
Decadal Scale ◽  
Long Term Trend

Abstract. The ratio of CO2 accumulating in the atmosphere to the CO2 flux into the atmosphere due to human activity, the airborne fraction AF, is central to predict changes in earth's surface temperature due to greenhouse gas induced warming. This ratio has remained remarkably constant in the past five decades, but recent studies have reported an apparent increasing trend and interpreted it as an indication for a decrease in the efficiency of the combined sinks by the ocean and terrestrial biosphere. We investigate here whether this interpretation is correct by analyzing the processes that control long-term trends and decadal-scale variations in the AF. To this end, we use simplified linear models for describing the time evolution of an atmospheric CO2 perturbation. We find firstly that the spin-up time of the system for the AF to converge to a constant value is on the order of 200–300 years and differs depending on whether exponentially increasing fossil fuel emissions only or the sum of fossil fuel and land use emissions are used. We find secondly that the primary control on the decadal time-scale variations of the AF is variations in the relative growth rate of the total anthropogenic CO2 emissions. Changes in sink efficiencies tend to leave a smaller imprint. Therefore, before interpreting trends in the AF as an indication of weakening carbon sink efficiency, it is necessary to account for trends and variations in AF stemming from anthropogenic emissions and other extrinsic forcing events, such as volcanic eruptions. Using atmospheric CO2 data and emission estimates for the period 1959 through 2006, and our simple predictive models for the AF, we find that likely omissions in the reported emissions from land use change and extrinsic forcing events are sufficient to explain the observed long-term trend in AF. Therefore, claims for a decreasing long-term trend in the carbon sink efficiency over the last few decades are currently not supported by atmospheric CO2 data and anthropogenic emissions estimates.

scholarly journals Global to local impacts on atmospheric CO2 caused by COVID-19 lockdown

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ning Zeng
Keyword(s):  
Fossil Fuel ◽  
Transport Model ◽  
Atmospheric Transport ◽  
Carbon Sink ◽  
Co2 Concentration ◽  
Atmospheric Co2 ◽  
Monitoring Systems ◽  
Carbon Cycle Model ◽  
Safe Level ◽  
Small Change

&lt;p&gt;&lt;span&gt;The world-wide lockdown in response to the COVID-19 pandemic in year 2020 led to economic slowdown and large reduction of fossil fuel CO2 emissions 1,2, but it is unclear how much it would reduce atmospheric CO2 concentration, the main driver of climate change, and whether it can be observed. We estimated that a 7.9% reduction in emissions for 4 months would result in a 0.25 ppm decrease in the Northern Hemisphere CO2, an increment that is within the capability of current CO2 analyzers, but is a few times smaller than natural CO2 variabilities caused by weather and the biosphere such as El Nino. We used a state-of-the-art atmospheric transport model to simulate CO2, driven by a new daily fossil fuel emissions dataset and hourly biospheric fluxes from a carbon cycle model forced with observed climate variability. Our results show a 0.13 ppm decrease in atmospheric column CO2 anomaly averaged over 50S-50N for the period February-April 2020 relative to a 10-year climatology. A similar decrease was observed by the carbon satellite GOSAT3. Using model sensitivity experiments, we further found that COVID, the biosphere and weather contributed 54%, 23%, and 23% respectively. In May 2020, the CO2 anomaly continued to decrease and was 0.36 ppm below climatology, mostly due to the COVID reduction and a biosphere that turned from a relative carbon source to carbon sink, while weather impact fluctuated. This seemingly small change stands out as the largest sub-annual anomaly in the last 10 years. Measurements from global ground stations were analyzed. At city scale, on-road CO2 enhancement measured in Beijing shows reduction of 20-30 ppm, consistent with drastically reduced traffic during the lockdown, while station data suggest that the expected COVID signal of 5-10 ppm was swamped by weather-driven variability on multi-day time scales. The ability of our current carbon monitoring systems in detecting the small and short-lasting COVID signal on the background of fossil fuel CO2 accumulated over the last two centuries is encouraging. The COVID-19 pandemic is an unintended experiment whose impact suggests that to keep atmospheric CO2 at a climate-safe level will require sustained effort of similar magnitude and improved accuracy and expanded spatiotemporal coverage of our monitoring systems.&lt;/span&gt;&lt;/p&gt;

scholarly journals Spatiotemporal patterns of the fossil-fuel CO<sub>2</sub> signal in central Europe: Results from a high-resolution atmospheric transport model

2017 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yu Liu ◽  
Nicolas Gruber ◽  
Dominik Brunner
Keyword(s):  
High Resolution ◽  
Central Europe ◽  
Western Europe ◽  
Fossil Fuel ◽  
Transport Model ◽  
Atmospheric Transport ◽  
Temporal Variations ◽  
Atmospheric Co2 ◽  
Fuel Component ◽  
Atmospheric Transport Model

Abstract. The emission of CO2 from the burning of fossil fuel is a prime determinant of variations in atmospheric CO2. Here, we simulate this fossil fuel signal together with the natural and background components with a regional high-resolution atmospheric transport model for central and southern Europe considering separately the emissions from different sectors and countries on the basis of emission inventories and hourly emission time functions. The simulated variations in atmospheric CO2 agree very well with observation-based estimates, although the observed variance is slightly underestimated, particularly for the fossil fuel component. Despite relatively rapid atmospheric mixing, the simulated fossil fuel signal reveals distinct annual mean structures deep into the troposphere reflecting the spatially dense aggregation of most emissions. The fossil fuel signal accounts for more than half of the total (fossil fuel + biospheric + background) temporal variations in atmospheric CO2 in most areas of northern and western central Europe, with the largest variations occurring on diurnal timescales owing to the combination of diurnal variations in emissions and atmospheric mixing/transport out of the surface layer. Their co-variance leads to a fossil-fuel diurnal rectifier effect with a magnitude as large as 9 ppm compared to a case with time-constant emissions. The spatial pattern of CO2 from the different sectors largely reflects the distribution and relative magnitude of the corresponding emissions, with power plant emissions leaving the most distinguished mark. An exception is southern and western Europe, where the emissions from the transportation sector dominate the fossil fuel signal. Most of the fossil fuel CO2 remains within the country responsible for the emission, although in smaller countries, up to 80 % of the fossil fuel signal can come from abroad. A fossil fuel emission reduction of 30 % is clearly detectable for a surface-based observing system for atmospheric CO2, while it is beyond the edge of detectability for the current generation of satellites with the exception of a few hotspot sites. Changes in variability in atmospheric CO2 might open an additional door for the monitoring and verification of changes in fossil fuel emissions, primarily for surface based systems.

scholarly journals Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide Variability in the Community Earth System Model: Evaluation and Transient Dynamics during the Twentieth and Twenty-First Centuries

2013 ◽  
Vol 26 (13) ◽  
pp. 4447-4475 ◽  
Author(s):  
Gretchen Keppel-Aleks ◽  
James T. Randerson ◽  
Keith Lindsay ◽  
Britton B. Stephens ◽  
J. Keith Moore ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Northern Hemisphere ◽  
Fossil Fuel ◽  
First Century ◽  
Atmospheric Co2 ◽  
System Model ◽  
Historical Period ◽  
Community Earth System Model ◽  
The Mean ◽  
Twenty First Century ◽  
Fossil Fuel Emissions

Abstract Changes in atmospheric CO2 variability during the twenty-first century may provide insight about ecosystem responses to climate change and have implications for the design of carbon monitoring programs. This paper describes changes in the three-dimensional structure of atmospheric CO2 for several representative concentration pathways (RCPs 4.5 and 8.5) using the Community Earth System Model–Biogeochemistry (CESM1-BGC). CO2 simulated for the historical period was first compared to surface, aircraft, and column observations. In a second step, the evolution of spatial and temporal gradients during the twenty-first century was examined. The mean annual cycle in atmospheric CO2 was underestimated for the historical period throughout the Northern Hemisphere, suggesting that the growing season net flux in the Community Land Model (the land component of CESM) was too weak. Consistent with weak summer drawdown in Northern Hemisphere high latitudes, simulated CO2 showed correspondingly weak north–south and vertical gradients during the summer. In the simulations of the twenty-first century, CESM predicted increases in the mean annual cycle of atmospheric CO2 and larger horizontal gradients. Not only did the mean north–south gradient increase due to fossil fuel emissions, but east–west contrasts in CO2 also strengthened because of changing patterns in fossil fuel emissions and terrestrial carbon exchange. In the RCP8.5 simulation, where CO2 increased to 1150 ppm by 2100, the CESM predicted increases in interannual variability in the Northern Hemisphere midlatitudes of up to 60% relative to present variability for time series filtered with a 2–10-yr bandpass. Such an increase in variability may impact detection of changing surface fluxes from atmospheric observations.

scholarly journals Los Angeles megacity: a high-resolution land–atmosphere modelling system for urban CO<sub>2</sub> emissions

2016 ◽  
Vol 16 (14) ◽  
pp. 9019-9045 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sha Feng ◽  
Thomas Lauvaux ◽  
Sally Newman ◽  
Preeti Rao ◽  
Ravan Ahmadov ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
High Resolution ◽  
Los Angeles ◽  
Co2 Emission ◽  
Fossil Fuel ◽  
Meteorological Data ◽  
Atmospheric Co2 ◽  
Co2 Concentrations ◽  
Emissions Modelling ◽  
Atmospheric Co2 Concentrations ◽  
Modelling System

Abstract. Megacities are major sources of anthropogenic fossil fuel CO2 (FFCO2) emissions. The spatial extents of these large urban systems cover areas of 10 000 km2 or more with complex topography and changing landscapes. We present a high-resolution land–atmosphere modelling system for urban CO2 emissions over the Los Angeles (LA) megacity area. The Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF)-Chem model was coupled to a very high-resolution FFCO2 emission product, Hestia-LA, to simulate atmospheric CO2 concentrations across the LA megacity at spatial resolutions as fine as  ∼  1 km. We evaluated multiple WRF configurations, selecting one that minimized errors in wind speed, wind direction, and boundary layer height as evaluated by its performance against meteorological data collected during the CalNex-LA campaign (May–June 2010). Our results show no significant difference between moderate-resolution (4 km) and high-resolution (1.3 km) simulations when evaluated against surface meteorological data, but the high-resolution configurations better resolved planetary boundary layer heights and vertical gradients in the horizontal mean winds. We coupled our WRF configuration with the Vulcan 2.2 (10 km resolution) and Hestia-LA (1.3 km resolution) fossil fuel CO2 emission products to evaluate the impact of the spatial resolution of the CO2 emission products and the meteorological transport model on the representation of spatiotemporal variability in simulated atmospheric CO2 concentrations. We find that high spatial resolution in the fossil fuel CO2 emissions is more important than in the atmospheric model to capture CO2 concentration variability across the LA megacity. Finally, we present a novel approach that employs simultaneous correlations of the simulated atmospheric CO2 fields to qualitatively evaluate the greenhouse gas measurement network over the LA megacity. Spatial correlations in the atmospheric CO2 fields reflect the coverage of individual measurement sites when a statistically significant number of sites observe emissions from a specific source or location. We conclude that elevated atmospheric CO2 concentrations over the LA megacity are composed of multiple fine-scale plumes rather than a single homogenous urban dome. Furthermore, we conclude that FFCO2 emissions monitoring in the LA megacity requires FFCO2 emissions modelling with  ∼  1 km resolution because coarser-resolution emissions modelling tends to overestimate the observational constraints on the emissions estimates.

Radiocarbon observations in atmospheric CO2: Determining fossil fuel CO2 over Europe using Jungfraujoch observations as background

2008 ◽  
Vol 391 (2-3) ◽  
pp. 211-216 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ingeborg Levin ◽  
Samuel Hammer ◽  
Bernd Kromer ◽  
Frank Meinhardt
Keyword(s):  
Fossil Fuel ◽  
Atmospheric Co2

scholarly journals Re-evaluating the 1940s CO<sub>2</sub> plateau

2016 ◽  
Vol 13 (17) ◽  
pp. 4877-4897 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ana Bastos ◽  
Philippe Ciais ◽  
Jonathan Barichivich ◽  
Laurent Bopp ◽  
Victor Brovkin ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Land Use ◽  
Growth Rate ◽  
El Niño ◽  
Carbon Budget ◽  
Fossil Fuel ◽  
El Nino ◽  
Carbon Sink ◽  
Atmospheric Co2 ◽  
Ocean Carbon ◽  
Fossil Fuel Emissions

Abstract. The high-resolution CO2 record from Law Dome ice core reveals that atmospheric CO2 concentration stalled during the 1940s (so-called CO2 plateau). Since the fossil-fuel emissions did not decrease during the period, this stalling implies the persistence of a strong sink, perhaps sustained for as long as a decade or more. Double-deconvolution analyses have attributed this sink to the ocean, conceivably as a response to the very strong El Niño event in 1940–1942. However, this explanation is questionable, as recent ocean CO2 data indicate that the range of variability in the ocean sink has been rather modest in recent decades, and El Niño events have generally led to higher growth rates of atmospheric CO2 due to the offsetting terrestrial response. Here, we use the most up-to-date information on the different terms of the carbon budget: fossil-fuel emissions, four estimates of land-use change (LUC) emissions, ocean uptake from two different reconstructions, and the terrestrial sink modelled by the TRENDY project to identify the most likely causes of the 1940s plateau. We find that they greatly overestimate atmospheric CO2 growth rate during the plateau period, as well as in the 1960s, in spite of giving a plausible explanation for most of the 20th century carbon budget, especially from 1970 onwards. The mismatch between reconstructions and observations during the CO2 plateau epoch of 1940–1950 ranges between 0.9 and 2.0 Pg C yr−1, depending on the LUC dataset considered. This mismatch may be explained by (i) decadal variability in the ocean carbon sink not accounted for in the reconstructions we used, (ii) a further terrestrial sink currently missing in the estimates by land-surface models, or (iii) LUC processes not included in the current datasets. Ocean carbon models from CMIP5 indicate that natural variability in the ocean carbon sink could explain an additional 0.5 Pg C yr−1 uptake, but it is unlikely to be higher. The impact of the 1940–1942 El Niño on the observed stabilization of atmospheric CO2 cannot be confirmed nor discarded, as TRENDY models do not reproduce the expected concurrent strong decrease in terrestrial uptake. Nevertheless, this would further increase the mismatch between observed and modelled CO2 growth rate during the CO2 plateau epoch. Tests performed using the OSCAR (v2.2) model indicate that changes in land use not correctly accounted for during the period (coinciding with drastic socioeconomic changes during the Second World War) could contribute to the additional sink required. Thus, the previously proposed ocean hypothesis for the 1940s plateau cannot be confirmed by independent data. Further efforts are required to reduce uncertainty in the different terms of the carbon budget during the first half of the 20th century and to better understand the long-term variability of the ocean and terrestrial CO2 sinks.

scholarly journals Radiocarbon method in monitoring of fossil fuel emission

2011 ◽  
Vol 38 (4) ◽  
pp. 314-324 ◽  
Author(s):  
Andrzej Rakowski
Keyword(s):  
Isotopic Composition ◽  
Fossil Fuels ◽  
Fossil Fuel ◽  
Isotope Composition ◽  
Carbon Isotopic Composition ◽  
Co2 Concentration ◽  
Atmospheric Co2 ◽  
Fossil Carbon ◽  
Fossil Fuel Emission ◽  
Urbanized Areas

AbstractThe traditional radiocarbon method widely used in archaeology and geology for chronological purposes can also be used in environmental studies. Combustion of fossil fuels like coal, natural gas, petroleum, etc., in industrial and/or heavily urbanized areas, has increased the concentration of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere. The addition of fossil carbon caused changes of carbon isotopic composition, in particular, a definite decrease of 14C concentration in atmospheric CO2 and other carbon reservoirs (ocean and terrestrial biosphere), known as the Suess effect. Tree rings, leaves, as well as other annual growing plants reflected the changes of radiocarbon concentration in the atmosphere due to processes of photosynthesis and assimilation of carbon from the air. By measuring radiocarbon concentration directly in atmospheric CO2 samples and/or biospheric material growing in industrial and/or highly urbanized areas where high emission of dead carbon is expected, it is possible to estimate the total emission of dead CO2. Based on equations of mass balance for CO2 concentration, stable isotopic composition of carbon and radiocarbon concentration it is possible to calculate CO2 con-centration associated with fossil fuel emission into the atmosphere. The procedure use differences between the radiocarbon concentration and stable isotope composition of carbon observed in clean areas and industrial or/and highly urbanized areas.

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