AbstractNatural gas hydrate (NGH) has been widely considered as an alternative to conventional oil and gas resources in the future energy resource supply since Trofimuk’s first resource assessment in 1973. At least 29 global estimates have been published from various studies so far, among which 24 estimates are greater than the total conventional gas resources. If drawn in chronological order, the 29 historical resource estimates show a clear downward trend, reflecting the changes in our perception with respect to its resource potential with increasing our knowledge on the NGH with time. A time series of the 29 estimates was used to establish a statistical model for predict the future trend. The model produces an expected resource value of 41.46 × 1012 m3 at the year of 2050. The statistical trend projected future gas hydrate resource is only about 10% of total natural gas resource in conventional reservoir, consistent with estimates of global technically recoverable resources (TRR) in gas hydrate from Monte Carlo technique based on volumetric and material balance approaches. Considering the technical challenges and high cost in commercial production and the lack of competitive advantages compared with rapid growing unconventional and renewable resources, only those on the very top of the gas hydrate resource pyramid will be added to future energy supply. It is unlikely that the NGH will be the major energy source in the future.
A novel mathematical method for evaluating the wellbore deformation of a diagenetic natural gas hydrate reservoir considering the effect of natural gas hydrate decomposition