Hybrid Response Surface Function-Based Metamodeling of Response Approximation for Reliability Analysis

2019 ◽  
pp. 567-577
Author(s):  
Sounak Kabasi ◽  
Subrata Chakraborty
Keyword(s):  
Reliability Analysis ◽  
Response Surface ◽  
Response Surface Function

Time-dependent reliability analysis of the motor hanger for EMU based on stochastic process

2019 ◽  
Vol 11 (3) ◽  
pp. 453-469 ◽  
Author(s):  
Pengpeng Zhi ◽  
Yue Xu ◽  
Bingzhi Chen
Keyword(s):  
Stochastic Process ◽  
Reliability Analysis ◽  
Response Surface ◽  
Structural Design ◽  
Time Dependent ◽  
Structural Stress ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Structural Resistance ◽  
Uncertainty Parameters ◽  
Response Surface Function

Purpose Most of the previous work on reliability analysis was based on the traditional reliability theory. The calculated results can only reflect the reliability of components at a specific time, which neglects the uncertainty of load and resistance over time. The purpose of this paper is to develop a time-dependent reliability analysis approach based on stochastic process to deal with the problem and apply it to the structural design of railway vehicle components. Design/methodology/approach First, the parametric model of motor hanger for electric multiple unit (EMU) is established by ANSYS parametric design language, and its structural stress is analyzed according to relevant standards. The Latin hypercube method is used to analyze the sensitivity of the structure, and the uncertainty parameters (sizes and loads) which have great influence on the structural strength are determined. The D-optimal experimental design is carried out to establish the polynomial response surface function, which characterizes the relationship between uncertainty parameters and structural stress. Second, the Poisson stochastic process is adopted to describe the number of loads acting, and the Monte Carlo method is used to obtain the load acting history according to its probability distribution characteristics. The load history is introduced into the response surface function and the uncertainty of other parameters is considered at the same time, and the stress history of the motor hanger is obtained. Finally, the degradation process of structural resistance is described by a Gamma stochastic process, and the time-dependent reliability of the motor hanger is calculated based on the reliability theory. Findings Time and the uncertainties of parameters have great impact on reliability. The results of reliability decrease with time fluctuation are more reasonable, stable and credible than traditional methods. Practical implications In this paper, the proposed method is applied to the structural design of the motor hanger for EMU, which has a good guiding significance for accurately evaluating whether if the design meets the reliability requirements. Originality/value The value of this paper is that the method takes both the randomness of load over time and the uncertainty of structural parameters in the design and manufactures process into consideration, and describes the monotonous degradation characteristics of structural resistance. At the same time, the time-dependent reliability of mechanical components is calculated by a response surface method. It not only improves the accuracy of reliability analysis, but also improves the analysis efficiency and solves the problem that the traditional reliability analysis method can only reflect the static reliability of components.

An Approach to Reliability Analysis Using the Response Surface Method and Monte Carlo Simulation

1999 ◽  
Author(s):  
Irfan Kaymaz ◽  
Chris A. McMahon
Keyword(s):  
Monte Carlo Simulation ◽  
Monte Carlo ◽  
Reliability Analysis ◽  
Response Surface ◽  
Response Surface Method ◽  
Actual Performance ◽  
Surface Method ◽  
Analysis System ◽  
Different Response ◽  
Response Surface Function

Abstract It is important in reliability evaluation to take an approach in which the required calculations can be performed efficiently in terms of time and cost. In this study, an approach is proposed whereby reliability analysis is carried out by means of Monte Carlo simulation in which the actual performance function is replaced by a function obtained using the response surface method (RSM). The common approach in the conventional RSM is to use a second-degree polynomial for the response surface function, but in many reliability problems this may not be the best choice. This paper first reviews the approaches and limitations of reliability methods, and then goes on to discuss a method of modelling error when using the response surface method for reliability analysis. It shows the errors obtained for different response functions under different circumstances, and then describes the application of a network-based analysis system to reliability problems.

scholarly journals Application of Probabilistic and Nonprobabilistic Hybrid Reliability Analysis Based on Dynamic Substructural Extremum Response Surface Decoupling Method for a Blisk of the Aeroengine

2017 ◽  
Vol 2017 ◽  
pp. 1-11 ◽  
Author(s):  
Bin Bai ◽  
Wei Zhang ◽  
Botong Li ◽  
Chao Li ◽  
Guangchen Bai
Keyword(s):  
Reliability Analysis ◽  
Response Surface ◽  
Probabilistic Analysis ◽  
Random Variables ◽  
Practical Significance ◽  
Decoupling Method ◽  
The Monte Carlo Method ◽  
Interval Variables ◽  
Hybrid Reliability ◽  
Response Surface Function

For the nondeterministic factors of an aeroengine blisk, including both factors with sufficient and insufficient statistical data, based on the dynamic substructural method of determinate analysis, the extremum response surface method of probabilistic analysis, and the interval method of nonprobabilistic analysis, a methodology called the probabilistic and nonprobabilistic hybrid reliability analysis based on dynamic substructural extremum response surface decoupling method (P-NP-HRA-DS-ERSDM) is proposed. The model includes random variables and interval variables to determine the interval failure probability and the interval reliability index. The extremum response surface function and its flow chart of mixed reliability analysis are given. The interval analysis is embedded in the most likely failure point in the iterative process. The probabilistic analysis and nonprobabilistic analysis are investigated alternately. Tuned and mistuned blisks are studied in a complicated environment, and the results are compared with the Monte Carlo method (MCM) and the multilevel nested algorithm (MLNA) to verify that the hybrid model can better handle reliability problems concurrently containing random variables and interval variables; meanwhile, it manifests that the computational efficiency of this method is superior and more reasonable for analysing and designing a mistuned blisk. Therefore, this methodology has very important practical significance.

scholarly journals Creep-Based Reliability Evaluation of Turbine Blade-Tip Clearance with Novel Neural Network Regression

Materials ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 12 (21) ◽  
pp. 3552 ◽  
Author(s):  
Chun-Yi Zhang ◽  
Jing-Shan Wei ◽  
Ze Wang ◽  
Zhe-Shan Yuan ◽  
Cheng-Wei Fei ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Neural Network ◽  
High Pressure ◽  
Reliability Analysis ◽  
Response Surface ◽  
Response Surface Method ◽  
Tip Clearance ◽  
Strong Nonlinearity ◽  
Surface Method ◽  
Blade Tip ◽  
Blade Tip Clearance

To reveal the effect of high-temperature creep on the blade-tip radial running clearance of aeroengine high-pressure turbines, a distributed collaborative generalized regression extremum neural network is proposed by absorbing the heuristic thoughts of distributed collaborative response surface method and the generalized extremum neural network, in order to improve the reliability analysis of blade-tip clearance with creep behavior in terms of modeling precision and simulation efficiency. In this method, the generalized extremum neural network was used to handle the transients by simplifying the response process as one extremum and to address the strong nonlinearity by means of its nonlinear mapping ability. The distributed collaborative response surface method was applied to handle multi-object multi-discipline analysis, by decomposing one “big” model with hyperparameters and high nonlinearity into a series of “small” sub-models with few parameters and low nonlinearity. Based on the developed method, the blade-tip clearance reliability analysis of an aeroengine high-pressure turbine was performed subject to the creep behaviors of structural materials, by considering the randomness of influencing parameters such as gas temperature, rotational speed, material parameters, convective heat transfer coefficient, and so forth. It was found that the reliability degree of the clearance is 0.9909 when the allowable value is 2.2 mm, and the creep deformation of the clearance presents a normal distribution with a mean of 1.9829 mm and a standard deviation of 0.07539 mm. Based on a comparison of the methods, it is demonstrated that the proposed method requires a computing time of 1.201 s and has a computational accuracy of 99.929% over 104 simulations, which are improvements of 70.5% and 1.23%, respectively, relative to the distributed collaborative response surface method. Meanwhile, the high efficiency and high precision of the presented approach become more obvious with the increasing simulations. The efforts of this study provide a promising approach to improve the dynamic reliability analysis of complex structures.

ANN-Based Structure Optimization with Fatigue Reliability Constrains

2012 ◽  
Vol 204-208 ◽  
pp. 3128-3131
Author(s):  
Li Rong Sha ◽  
Yue Yang
Keyword(s):  
Structural Optimization ◽  
Objective Function ◽  
Reliability Analysis ◽  
Response Surface ◽  
Minimum Weight ◽  
Structure Optimization ◽  
Fatigue Reliability ◽  
Ann Model ◽  
Surface Method ◽  
The Relationship

The ANN-based optimization for considering fatigue reliability requirements in structural optimization was proposed. The ANN-based response surface method was employed for performing fatigue reliability analysis. The fatigue reliability requirements were considered as constraints while the weight as the objective function, the ANN model was adopted to establish the relationship between the fatigue reliability and geometry dimension of the structure, the optimal results of the structure with a minimum weight was reached.

scholarly journals Reliability-Based Topology Optimization Using Stochastic Response Surface Method with Sparse Grid Design

2015 ◽  
Vol 2015 ◽  
pp. 1-13 ◽  
Author(s):  
Qinghai Zhao ◽  
Xiaokai Chen ◽  
Zheng-Dong Ma ◽  
Yi Lin
Keyword(s):  
Topology Optimization ◽  
Reliability Analysis ◽  
Response Surface ◽  
Response Surface Method ◽  
Computational Efficiency ◽  
Sparse Grid ◽  
Stochastic Response ◽  
Stochastic Response Surface Method ◽  
Surface Method ◽  
Grid Design

A mathematical framework is developed which integrates the reliability concept into topology optimization to solve reliability-based topology optimization (RBTO) problems under uncertainty. Two typical methodologies have been presented and implemented, including the performance measure approach (PMA) and the sequential optimization and reliability assessment (SORA). To enhance the computational efficiency of reliability analysis, stochastic response surface method (SRSM) is applied to approximate the true limit state function with respect to the normalized random variables, combined with the reasonable design of experiments generated by sparse grid design, which was proven to be an effective and special discretization technique. The uncertainties such as material property and external loads are considered on three numerical examples: a cantilever beam, a loaded knee structure, and a heat conduction problem. Monte-Carlo simulations are also performed to verify the accuracy of the failure probabilities computed by the proposed approach. Based on the results, it is demonstrated that application of SRSM with SGD can produce an efficient reliability analysis in RBTO which enables a more reliable design than that obtained by DTO. It is also found that, under identical accuracy, SORA is superior to PMA in view of computational efficiency.

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