A sensitivity experiment for the removal of Arctic sea ice with the French spectral general circulation model

1990 ◽  
Vol 5 (1) ◽  
pp. 1-17 ◽  
Author(s):  
J. F. Royer ◽  
S. Planton ◽  
M. Déqué
Keyword(s):  
Sea Ice ◽  
General Circulation Model ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
Circulation Model ◽  
Arctic Sea Ice ◽  
Sensitivity Experiment ◽  
Arctic Sea

scholarly journals Simulated Atmospheric Response to Regional and Pan-Arctic Sea Ice Loss

2017 ◽  
Vol 30 (11) ◽  
pp. 3945-3962 ◽  
Author(s):  
James A. Screen
Keyword(s):  
Sea Ice ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Circulation Model ◽  
Arctic Sea Ice ◽  
Ecological Impacts ◽  
The Arctic ◽  
Stratospheric Polar Vortex ◽  
Arctic Sea ◽  
Arctic Sea Ice Loss

Abstract The loss of Arctic sea ice is already having profound environmental, societal, and ecological impacts locally. A highly uncertain area of scientific research, however, is whether such Arctic change has a tangible effect on weather and climate at lower latitudes. There is emerging evidence that the geographical location of sea ice loss is critically important in determining the large-scale atmospheric circulation response and associated midlatitude impacts. However, such regional dependencies have not been explored in a thorough and systematic manner. To make progress on this issue, this study analyzes ensemble simulations with an atmospheric general circulation model prescribed with sea ice loss separately in nine regions of the Arctic, to elucidate the distinct responses to regional sea ice loss. The results suggest that in some regions, sea ice loss triggers large-scale dynamical responses, whereas in other regions sea ice loss induces only local thermodynamical changes. Sea ice loss in the Barents–Kara Seas is unique in driving a weakening of the stratospheric polar vortex, followed in time by a tropospheric circulation response that resembles the North Atlantic Oscillation. For October–March, the largest spatial-scale responses are driven by sea ice loss in the Barents–Kara Seas and the Sea of Okhotsk; however, different regions assume greater importance in other seasons. The atmosphere responds very differently to regional sea ice losses than to pan-Arctic sea ice loss, and the response to pan-Arctic sea ice loss cannot be obtained by the linear addition of the responses to regional sea ice losses. The results imply that diversity in past studies of the simulated response to Arctic sea ice loss can be partly explained by the different spatial patterns of sea ice loss imposed.

Seasonal Forecasts of the Pan-Arctic Sea Ice Extent Using a GCM-Based Seasonal Prediction System

2013 ◽  
Vol 26 (16) ◽  
pp. 6092-6104 ◽  
Author(s):  
Matthieu Chevallier ◽  
David Salas y Mélia ◽  
Aurore Voldoire ◽  
Michel Déqué ◽  
Gilles Garric
Keyword(s):  
Sea Ice ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
Global Climate Model ◽  
Circulation Model ◽  
Ice Cover ◽  
Arctic Sea Ice ◽  
The Arctic ◽  
Seasonal Forecasts ◽  
Sea Ice Extent ◽  
Arctic Sea

Abstract An ocean–sea ice model reconstruction spanning the period 1990–2009 is used to initialize ensemble seasonal forecasts with the Centre National de Recherches Météorologiques Coupled Global Climate Model version 5.1 (CNRM-CM5.1) coupled atmosphere–ocean general circulation model. The aim of this study is to assess the skill of fully initialized September and March pan-Arctic sea ice forecasts in terms of climatology and interannual anomalies. The predictions are initialized using “full field initialization” of each component of the system. In spite of a drift due to radiative biases in the coupled model during the melt season, the full initialization of the sea ice cover on 1 May leads to skillful forecasts of the September sea ice extent (SIE) anomalies. The skill of the prediction is also significantly high when considering anomalies of the SIE relative to the long-term linear trend. It confirms that the anomaly of spring sea ice cover in itself plays a role in preconditioning a September SIE anomaly. The skill of predictions for March SIE initialized on 1 November is also encouraging, and it can be partly attributed to persistent features of the fall sea ice cover. The present study gives insight into the current ability of state-of-the-art coupled climate systems to perform operational seasonal forecasts of the Arctic sea ice cover up to 5 months in advance.

scholarly journals Sensitivity of an atmospheric general circulation model to the parameterization of leads in sea ice

1997 ◽  
Vol 25 ◽  
pp. 96-101 ◽  
Author(s):  
Gregory M. Flato ◽  
David Ramsden
Keyword(s):  
Sea Ice ◽  
General Circulation Model ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Atmospheric General Circulation Model ◽  
Circulation Model ◽  
Open Water ◽  
Arctic Sea Ice ◽  
Atmospheric General Circulation ◽  
Hemisphere Winter

Open-water leads in sea ice dominate the exchange of heat between the ocean and atmosphere in ice-covered regions, and so must be included in climate models. A parameterization of leads used in one such model is compared to observations and the results of a detailed Arctic sea-ice model. Such comparisons, however, are hampered by the errors in observed lead fraction, but the parameterization appears to compare better in winter than in summer. Simulations with an atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM), using prescribed sea-surface temperatures and ice extent, are used to illustrate the effect of parameterized lead fraction on atmospheric climate, and so provide some insight into the importance of improved lead-fraction parameterizations and observations. The effect of leads in the AGCM is largest in Northern Hemisphere winter, with zonal mean surface-air temperatures over ice increasing by up to 5 K when lead fraction is increased from 1% to near 5%. The effect of leads on sensible heat loss in winter is more important than the effect on radiative heat gain in summer. No significant effect on sea-level pressure, and hence on atmospheric circulation, is found, however. Indirect effects, due to feedbacks between the atmosphere and ice thickness and extent, were not included in these simulations, but could amplify the response.

scholarly journals Potential faster Arctic sea ice retreat triggered by snowflakes' greenhouse effect

2019 ◽  
Vol 13 (3) ◽  
pp. 969-980 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jui-Lin Frank Li ◽  
Mark Richardson ◽  
Wei-Liang Lee ◽  
Eric Fetzer ◽  
Graeme Stephens ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Sea Ice ◽  
Greenhouse Effect ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
Circulation Model ◽  
Arctic Sea Ice ◽  
Cmip5 Models ◽  
Radiative Effects ◽  
Arctic Sea ◽  
Ice Retreat ◽  
Sea Ice Retreat

Abstract. Recent Arctic sea ice retreat has been quicker than in most general circulation model (GCM) simulations. Internal variability may have amplified the observed retreat in recent years, but reliable attribution and projection requires accurate representation of relevant physics. Most current GCMs do not fully represent falling ice radiative effects (FIREs), and here we show that the small set of Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) models that include FIREs tend to show faster observed retreat. We investigate this using controlled simulations with the CESM1-CAM5 model. Under 1pctCO2 simulations, including FIREs results in the first occurrence of an “ice-free” Arctic (monthly mean extent <1×106 km2) at 550 ppm CO2, compared with 680 ppm otherwise. Over 60–90∘ N oceans, snowflakes reduce downward surface shortwave radiation and increase downward surface longwave radiation, improving agreement with the satellite-based CERES EBAF-Surface dataset. We propose that snowflakes' equivalent greenhouse effect reduces the mean sea ice thickness, resulting in a thinner pack whose retreat is more easily triggered by global warming. This is supported by the CESM1-CAM5 surface fluxes and a reduced initial thickness in perennial sea ice regions by approximately 0.3 m when FIREs are included. This explanation does not apply across the CMIP5 ensemble in which inter-model variation in the simulation of other processes likely dominates. Regardless, we show that FIRE can substantially change Arctic sea ice projections and propose that better including falling ice radiative effects in models is a high priority.

scholarly journals Sensitivity of an atmospheric general circulation model to the parameterization of leads in sea ice

1997 ◽  
Vol 25 ◽  
pp. 96-101 ◽  
Author(s):  
Gregory M. Flato ◽  
David Ramsden
Keyword(s):  
Sea Ice ◽  
General Circulation Model ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Atmospheric General Circulation Model ◽  
Circulation Model ◽  
Open Water ◽  
Arctic Sea Ice ◽  
Atmospheric General Circulation ◽  
Hemisphere Winter

Open-water leads in sea ice dominate the exchange of heat between the ocean and atmosphere in ice-covered regions, and so must be included in climate models. A parameterization of leads used in one such model is compared to observations and the results of a detailed Arctic sea-ice model. Such comparisons, however, are hampered by the errors in observed lead fraction, but the parameterization appears to compare better in winter than in summer. Simulations with an atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM), using prescribed sea-surface temperatures and ice extent, are used to illustrate the effect of parameterized lead fraction on atmospheric climate, and so provide some insight into the importance of improved lead-fraction parameterizations and observations. The effect of leads in the AGCM is largest in Northern Hemisphere winter, with zonal mean surface-air temperatures over ice increasing by up to 5 K when lead fraction is increased from 1% to near 5%. The effect of leads on sensible heat loss in winter is more important than the effect on radiative heat gain in summer. No significant effect on sea-level pressure, and hence on atmospheric circulation, is found, however. Indirect effects, due to feedbacks between the atmosphere and ice thickness and extent, were not included in these simulations, but could amplify the response.

Arctic Sea Ice: Observations and Global Climate Modelling

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Juilin Li ◽  
Mark Richardson ◽  
Wei-Liang Lee ◽  
Jonathan Jiang ◽  
Kuan-Man Xu ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Sea Ice ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Circulation Model ◽  
Arctic Sea Ice ◽  
Cmip5 Models ◽  
Climate Modelling ◽  
Arctic Sea ◽  
Ice Retreat ◽  
Sea Ice Retreat

&lt;p&gt;Recent Arctic sea ice retreat has been quicker than the projection in most general circulation model (GCM) simulations. Natural factors may have amplified this, but reliable attribution and projection requires accurate representation of relevant physical processes. In the meeting, we will present results indicating robust links between CloudSat-CALIPSO falling ice and Arctic sea ice melting from observations and global climate modelings.&amp;#160; Most current GCMs don&amp;#8217;t fully represent falling ice radiative effects (FIREs).&amp;#160; We find that a small set of Coupled Model Intercomparison Project, phase 5 (CMIP5) models that include FIREs tend to show a faster Arctic sea ice retreat. We investigate this using controlled simulation with the CESM1-CAM5 model both in present-day and 1%CO2 scenarios. With FIREs, CESM1-CAM5 simulates more realistic present-day annual and seasonal variations of radiation and skin temperatures and Arctic sea ice coverage and thickness. Over 60&amp;#8212;90 &amp;#176;N oceans, simulated radiative flux trends are similar but the current-day state differs substantially due to FIREs. Falling ice reduces downward shortwave and increase downward longwave, resulting in an improved agreement with the satellite-based CERES-EBAF surface dataset. Under 1pctCO2 simulations, including FIREs results in the first occurrence of an &amp;#8220;ice free&amp;#8221; Arctic (extent &lt; 1&amp;#215;10&lt;sup&gt;6&lt;/sup&gt; km&lt;sup&gt;2&lt;/sup&gt;) in year 64, compared with year 91 otherwise. We propose that the equivalent greenhouse effects from falling ice results in fewer safe spaces in which sea ice can thicken during winter, resulting in a thinner pack whose retreat is more easily triggered by global warming. However, this explanation does not apply across the CMIP5 ensemble members. Our results therefore only apply to one model but we have shown that this can have substantial implications for Arctic sea ice projection. Given that falling ice interaction with radiation in reality, we propose that including FIREs in models is a high priority.&lt;/p&gt;

scholarly journals Potential faster Arctic sea ice retreat triggered by snowflakes' greenhouse effect

2018 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jui-Lin Frank Li ◽  
Mark Richardson ◽  
Wei-Liang Lee ◽  
Yulan Hong ◽  
Jonathan Jiang ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Sea Ice ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
Coupled Model ◽  
Circulation Model ◽  
Arctic Sea Ice ◽  
Cmip5 Models ◽  
Arctic Sea ◽  
First Occurrence ◽  
Ice Retreat ◽  
Sea Ice Retreat

Abstract. Recent Arctic sea ice retreat has been quicker than in most general circulation model (GCM) simulations. Natural factors may have amplified this, but reliable attribution and projection requires accurate representation of relevant physics. Most current GCMs don’t fully represent falling ice radiative effects (FIRE), and here we show that the small set of Coupled Model Intercomparison Project, phase 5 (CMIP5) models that include FIRE tend to show faster observed retreat. We investigate this using controlled simulations with the CESM1-CAM5 model. Under 1pctCO2 simulations, including FIRE results in the first occurrence of an “ice free” Arctic (extent

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