Effect of altered Arctic sea ice and Greenland ice sheet cover on the climate of the GENESIS general circulation model

1994 ◽  
Vol 9 (3-4) ◽  
pp. 275-288 ◽  
Author(s):  
Thomas J. Crowley ◽  
Kuor-Jier Joseph Yip ◽  
Steven K. Baum
Keyword(s):  
Sea Ice ◽  
General Circulation Model ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
Ice Sheet ◽  
Greenland Ice Sheet ◽  
Circulation Model ◽  
Arctic Sea Ice ◽  
Arctic Sea

scholarly journals The response of the Greenland ice sheet to climate changes in the 21st century by interactive coupling of an AOGCM with a thermomechanical ice-sheet model

2002 ◽  
Vol 35 ◽  
pp. 409-415 ◽  
Author(s):  
Philippe Huybrechts ◽  
Ives Janssens ◽  
Chantal Poncin ◽  
Thierry Fichefet
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Sea Ice ◽  
Sea Level Rise ◽  
Sea Level ◽  
Fresh Water ◽  
General Circulation Model ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
Ice Sheet ◽  
Greenland Ice Sheet ◽  
Circulation Model

AbstractWe present results from a greenhouse warming experiment obtained from an atmosphere–ocean–sea-ice general circulation model that is interactively coupled with a three-dimensional model of the Greenland ice sheet. the experiment covers the period 1970–2099 and is driven by the mid-range Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change SRESB2 scenario. the Greenland model is a thermomechanical high-resolution (20 km) model coupled with a viscoelastic bedrock model. the melt-and-runoff model is based on the positive degree-day method and includes meltwater retention in the snowpack and the formation of superimposed ice. the atmospheric–oceanic general circulation model (AOGCM) is a coarse-resolution model without flux correction based on the Laboratoire de Météorologie Dynamique (Paris) LMD 5.3 atmospheric model coupled with a primitive-equation, free-surface oceanic component incorporating sea ice (coupled large-scale ice–ocean (CLIO)). By 2100, average Greenland annual temperature is found to rise by about 4.5˚C and mean precipitation by about 35%. the total fresh-water flux approximately doubles over this period due to increased runoff from the ice sheet and the ice-free land, but the calving rate is found to decrease by 25%. the ice sheet shrinks equivalent to 4 cm of sea-level rise. the contribution from the background evolution is not more than 5% of the total predicted sea-level rise. We did not find significant changes in the patterns of climate change over the North Atlantic region compared with a climate-change run without Greenland fresh-water feedback.

scholarly journals Simulated Atmospheric Response to Regional and Pan-Arctic Sea Ice Loss

2017 ◽  
Vol 30 (11) ◽  
pp. 3945-3962 ◽  
Author(s):  
James A. Screen
Keyword(s):  
Sea Ice ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Circulation Model ◽  
Arctic Sea Ice ◽  
Ecological Impacts ◽  
The Arctic ◽  
Stratospheric Polar Vortex ◽  
Arctic Sea ◽  
Arctic Sea Ice Loss

Abstract The loss of Arctic sea ice is already having profound environmental, societal, and ecological impacts locally. A highly uncertain area of scientific research, however, is whether such Arctic change has a tangible effect on weather and climate at lower latitudes. There is emerging evidence that the geographical location of sea ice loss is critically important in determining the large-scale atmospheric circulation response and associated midlatitude impacts. However, such regional dependencies have not been explored in a thorough and systematic manner. To make progress on this issue, this study analyzes ensemble simulations with an atmospheric general circulation model prescribed with sea ice loss separately in nine regions of the Arctic, to elucidate the distinct responses to regional sea ice loss. The results suggest that in some regions, sea ice loss triggers large-scale dynamical responses, whereas in other regions sea ice loss induces only local thermodynamical changes. Sea ice loss in the Barents–Kara Seas is unique in driving a weakening of the stratospheric polar vortex, followed in time by a tropospheric circulation response that resembles the North Atlantic Oscillation. For October–March, the largest spatial-scale responses are driven by sea ice loss in the Barents–Kara Seas and the Sea of Okhotsk; however, different regions assume greater importance in other seasons. The atmosphere responds very differently to regional sea ice losses than to pan-Arctic sea ice loss, and the response to pan-Arctic sea ice loss cannot be obtained by the linear addition of the responses to regional sea ice losses. The results imply that diversity in past studies of the simulated response to Arctic sea ice loss can be partly explained by the different spatial patterns of sea ice loss imposed.

Seasonal Forecasts of the Pan-Arctic Sea Ice Extent Using a GCM-Based Seasonal Prediction System

2013 ◽  
Vol 26 (16) ◽  
pp. 6092-6104 ◽  
Author(s):  
Matthieu Chevallier ◽  
David Salas y Mélia ◽  
Aurore Voldoire ◽  
Michel Déqué ◽  
Gilles Garric
Keyword(s):  
Sea Ice ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
Global Climate Model ◽  
Circulation Model ◽  
Ice Cover ◽  
Arctic Sea Ice ◽  
The Arctic ◽  
Seasonal Forecasts ◽  
Sea Ice Extent ◽  
Arctic Sea

Abstract An ocean–sea ice model reconstruction spanning the period 1990–2009 is used to initialize ensemble seasonal forecasts with the Centre National de Recherches Météorologiques Coupled Global Climate Model version 5.1 (CNRM-CM5.1) coupled atmosphere–ocean general circulation model. The aim of this study is to assess the skill of fully initialized September and March pan-Arctic sea ice forecasts in terms of climatology and interannual anomalies. The predictions are initialized using “full field initialization” of each component of the system. In spite of a drift due to radiative biases in the coupled model during the melt season, the full initialization of the sea ice cover on 1 May leads to skillful forecasts of the September sea ice extent (SIE) anomalies. The skill of the prediction is also significantly high when considering anomalies of the SIE relative to the long-term linear trend. It confirms that the anomaly of spring sea ice cover in itself plays a role in preconditioning a September SIE anomaly. The skill of predictions for March SIE initialized on 1 November is also encouraging, and it can be partly attributed to persistent features of the fall sea ice cover. The present study gives insight into the current ability of state-of-the-art coupled climate systems to perform operational seasonal forecasts of the Arctic sea ice cover up to 5 months in advance.

scholarly journals Sensitivity of an atmospheric general circulation model to the parameterization of leads in sea ice

1997 ◽  
Vol 25 ◽  
pp. 96-101 ◽  
Author(s):  
Gregory M. Flato ◽  
David Ramsden
Keyword(s):  
Sea Ice ◽  
General Circulation Model ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Atmospheric General Circulation Model ◽  
Circulation Model ◽  
Open Water ◽  
Arctic Sea Ice ◽  
Atmospheric General Circulation ◽  
Hemisphere Winter

Open-water leads in sea ice dominate the exchange of heat between the ocean and atmosphere in ice-covered regions, and so must be included in climate models. A parameterization of leads used in one such model is compared to observations and the results of a detailed Arctic sea-ice model. Such comparisons, however, are hampered by the errors in observed lead fraction, but the parameterization appears to compare better in winter than in summer. Simulations with an atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM), using prescribed sea-surface temperatures and ice extent, are used to illustrate the effect of parameterized lead fraction on atmospheric climate, and so provide some insight into the importance of improved lead-fraction parameterizations and observations. The effect of leads in the AGCM is largest in Northern Hemisphere winter, with zonal mean surface-air temperatures over ice increasing by up to 5 K when lead fraction is increased from 1% to near 5%. The effect of leads on sensible heat loss in winter is more important than the effect on radiative heat gain in summer. No significant effect on sea-level pressure, and hence on atmospheric circulation, is found, however. Indirect effects, due to feedbacks between the atmosphere and ice thickness and extent, were not included in these simulations, but could amplify the response.

scholarly journals Influence of Arctic sea-ice loss on the Greenland ice sheet climate

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Raymond Sellevold ◽  
Jan T. M. Lenaerts ◽  
Miren Vizcaino
Keyword(s):  
Sea Ice ◽  
Ice Sheet ◽  
Greenland Ice Sheet ◽  
Arctic Sea Ice ◽  
The Arctic ◽  
Humid Atmosphere ◽  
Baffin Bay ◽  
Arctic Sea ◽  
Surface Melt ◽  
The Impact

AbstractThe Arctic is the region on Earth that is warming the fastest. At the same time, Arctic sea ice is reducing while the Greenland ice sheet (GrIS) is losing mass at an accelerated pace. Here, we study the seasonal impact of reduced Arctic sea ice on GrIS surface mass balance (SMB), using the Community Earth System Model version 2.1 (CESM2), which features an advanced, interactive calculation of SMB. Addressing the impact of sea-ice reductions on the GrIS SMB from observations is difficult due to the short observational records. Also, signals detected using transient climate simulations may be aliases of other forcings. Here, we analyze dedicated simulations from the Polar Amplification Model Intercomparison Project with reduced Arctic sea ice and compare them with preindustrial sea ice simulations while keeping all other forcings constant. In response to reduced sea ice, the GrIS SMB increases in winter due to increased precipitation, driven by the more humid atmosphere and increasing cyclones. In summer, surface melt increases due to a warmer, more humid atmosphere providing increased energy transfer to the surface through the sensible and latent heat fluxes, which triggers the melt-albedo feedback. Further, warming occurs throughout the entire troposphere over Baffin Bay. This deep warming results in regional enhancement of the 500 hPa geopotential heights over the Baffin Bay and Greenland, increasing blocking and heat advection over the GrIS’ surface. This anomalous circulation pattern has been linked to recent increases in the surface melt of the GrIS.

Earth's ice imbalance

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Thomas Slater ◽  
Isobel Lawrence ◽  
Inès Otosaka ◽  
Andrew Shepherd ◽  
Noel Gourmelen ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Sea Ice ◽  
Numerical Models ◽  
Ice Sheet ◽  
Greenland Ice Sheet ◽  
Arctic Sea Ice ◽  
Ice Shelf ◽  
Ice Shelves ◽  
Mountain Glaciers ◽  
Arctic Sea ◽  
The Antarctic

<p><span>Satellite observations are the best method for tracking ice loss, because the cryosphere is vast and remote. Using these, and some numerical models, we </span>show that Earth lost 28 trillion tonnes of ice between 1994 and 2017. Arctic sea ice (7.6 trillion tonnes), Antarctic ice shelves (6.5 trillion tonnes), mountain glaciers (6.1 trillion tonnes), the Greenland ice sheet (3.8 trillion tonnes), the Antarctic ice sheet (2.5 trillion tonnes), and Southern Ocean sea ice (0.9 trillion tonnes) have all decreased in mass. Just over half (58 %) of the ice loss was from the northern hemisphere, and the remainder (42 %) was from the southern hemisphere. The rate of ice loss has risen by 57 % since the 1990s – from 0.8 to 1.2 trillion tonnes per year – owing to increased losses from mountain glaciers, Antarctica, Greenland, and from Antarctic ice shelves. During the same period, the loss of grounded ice from the Antarctic and Greenland ice sheets and mountain glaciers raised the global sea level by 34.6 ± 3.1 mm. The majority of all ice losses were driven by atmospheric melting (68 % from Arctic sea ice, mountain glaciers ice shelf calving and ice sheet surface mass balance), with the remaining losses (32 % from ice sheet discharge and ice shelf thinning) being driven by oceanic melting. Altogether, these elements of the cryosphere have taken up 3.2 % of the global energy imbalance.</p>

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