scholarly journals ProZES: the methodology and software tool for assessment of assigned share of radiation in probability of cancer occurrence

2020 ◽  
Vol 59 (4) ◽  
pp. 601-629 ◽  
Author(s):  
Alexander Ulanowski ◽  
Elena Shemiakina ◽  
Denise Güthlin ◽  
Janine Becker ◽  
Dale Preston ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Lung Cancer ◽  
Atomic Bomb ◽  
Radiation Risk ◽  
Software Tool ◽  
Smoking Behaviour ◽  
Scientific Basis ◽  
Radiological Protection ◽  
Inference Models ◽  
Atomic Bomb Survivors ◽  
Cancer Occurrence

Abstract ProZES is a software tool for estimating the probability that a given cancer was caused by preceding exposure to ionising radiation. ProZES calculates this probability, the assigned share, for solid cancers and hematopoietic malignant diseases, in cases of exposures to low-LET radiation, and for lung cancer in cases of exposure to radon. User-specified inputs include birth year, sex, type of diagnosed cancer, age at diagnosis, radiation exposure history and characteristics, and smoking behaviour for lung cancer. Cancer risk models are an essential part of ProZES. Linking disease and exposure to radiation involves several methodological aspects, and assessment of uncertainties received particular attention. ProZES systematically uses the principle of multi-model inference. Models of radiation risk were either newly developed or critically re-evaluated for ProZES, including dedicated models for frequent types of cancer and, for less common diseases, models for groups of functionally similar cancer sites. The low-LET models originate mostly from the study of atomic bomb survivors in Hiroshima and Nagasaki. Risks predicted by these models are adjusted to be applicable to the population of Germany and to different time periods. Adjustment factors for low dose rates and for a reduced risk during the minimum latency time between exposure and cancer are also applied. The development of the methodology and software was initiated and supported by the German Federal Ministry for the Environment, Nature Conservation and Nuclear Safety (BMU) taking up advice by the German Commission on Radiological Protection (SSK, Strahlenschutzkommission). These provide the scientific basis to support decision making on compensation claims regarding malignancies following occupational exposure to radiation in Germany.

scholarly journals An update on effects of ionizing radiation exposure on the eye

2020 ◽  
Vol 93 (1115) ◽  
pp. 20190829 ◽  
Author(s):  
Nobuyuki Hamada ◽  
Tamara V. Azizova ◽  
Mark P. Little
Keyword(s):  
Dose Rate ◽  
Atomic Bomb ◽  
Scientific Evidence ◽  
Scientific Basis ◽  
Rate Effect ◽  
Radiological Protection ◽  
Epidemiological Evidence ◽  
Atomic Bomb Survivors ◽  
Cleanup Workers ◽  
Dose Rate Effect

The International Commission on Radiological Protection (ICRP) has considered for over 60 years that the lens of the eye is among the most radiosensitive tissues, and has recommended dose limits for the lens to prevent occurrence of vision impairing cataracts (VICs). Epidemiological evidence that doses much lower than previously thought produce cataracts led ICRP to recommend reducing dose threshold for VICs and reducing an occupational equivalent dose limit for the lens in 2011, when only a single threshold of 0.5 Gy was recommended. On the basis of epidemiological evidence, ICRP assumed progression of minor opacities into VICs and no dose rate effect. This contrasts with previously recommended separate thresholds for minor opacities and VICs, and for different exposure scenarios. Progression was assumed based on similar risks of cataracts and cataract surgery in Japanese atomic bomb survivors. The absence of dose rate effect derived from the observed similar thresholds for protracted exposures in Chernobyl cleanup workers and in atomic bomb survivors. Since 2011, there has been an increasing body of epidemiological evidence relating to cataracts and other ocular diseases (i.e. glaucoma and macular degeneration), particularly at low doses and low dose rates. This review paper gives an overview of the scientific basis of the 2011 ICRP recommendation, discusses the plausibility of these two assumptions in the light of emerging scientific evidence, and considers the radiosensitivity of the lens among ocular structures.

scholarly journals Radiation Risks of Uterine Cancer in Atomic Bomb Survivors: 1958–2009

2018 ◽  
Vol 2 (4) ◽  
Author(s):  
Mai Utada ◽  
Alina V Brenner ◽  
Dale L Preston ◽  
John B Cologne ◽  
Ritsu Sakata ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Cervical Cancer ◽  
Radiation Exposure ◽  
Radiation Effect ◽  
Atomic Bomb ◽  
Uterine Cancer ◽  
Radiation Risk ◽  
Atomic Bomb Survivors ◽  
Exposure Age ◽  
Modifying Effect ◽  
Effect Of Age

Abstract Background Ionizing radiation is known to be capable of causing cancer of many organs, but its relationship with uterine cancer has not been well characterized. Methods We studied incidence of uterine cancer during 1958–2009 among 62 534 female atomic bomb survivors. Using Poisson regression analysis, we fitted excess relative risk (ERR) models to uterine cancer rates adjusted for several lifestyle and reproductive factors. Person-years at risk were also adjusted for the probability of prior hysterectomy, because it could affect the subsequent risk of uterine cancer. We assessed the modifying effect of age and other factors on the radiation risk. For analysis of the modifying effect of age at radiation exposure around menarche, we compared the radiation risk for several exposure-age categories as well as using parametric models. Results There were 224 uterine corpus cancers and 982 cervical cancers. We found a significant association between radiation dose and risk of corpus cancer (ERR per Gray [ERR/Gy] = 0.73, 95% confidence interval [CI] = 0.03 to 1.87) but not for cervical cancer (ERR/Gy = 0.00, 95% CI = −0.22 to 0.31). For corpus cancer, we found statistically significant heterogeneity in ERR/Gy by age (Pheterogeneity = .001) with elevated risk for women exposed to radiation between ages 11 and 15 years (ERR/Gy = 4.10, 95% CI = 1.47 to 8.42) and no indication of a radiation effect for exposures before or after this exposure-age range. Conclusions The current data suggest that uterine corpus is especially sensitive to the carcinogenic effect of radiation exposure occurring during the mid-pubertal period preceding menarche. There is little evidence for a radiation effect on cervical cancer risk.

Radiation risk of individual multifactorial diseases in offspring of the atomic-bomb survivors: a clinical health study

2013 ◽  
Vol 33 (2) ◽  
pp. 281-293 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yoshimi Tatsukawa ◽  
John B Cologne ◽  
Wan-Ling Hsu ◽  
Michiko Yamada ◽  
Waka Ohishi ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Atomic Bomb ◽  
Radiation Risk ◽  
Health Study ◽  
Multifactorial Diseases ◽  
Atomic Bomb Survivors

scholarly journals Dose-responses for mortality from cerebrovascular and heart diseases in atomic bomb survivors: 1950–2003

2017 ◽  
Vol 57 (1) ◽  
pp. 17-29 ◽  
Author(s):  
Helmut Schöllnberger ◽  
Markus Eidemüller ◽  
Harry M. Cullings ◽  
Cristoforo Simonetto ◽  
Frauke Neff ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Dose Response ◽  
Atomic Bomb ◽  
Heart Diseases ◽  
Threshold Model ◽  
Accurate Determination ◽  
Radiation Risk ◽  
Response Curves ◽  
Response Models ◽  
Atomic Bomb Survivors ◽  
Lnt Model

Abstract The scientific community faces important discussions on the validity of the linear no-threshold (LNT) model for radiation-associated cardiovascular diseases at low and moderate doses. In the present study, mortalities from cerebrovascular diseases (CeVD) and heart diseases from the latest data on atomic bomb survivors were analyzed. The analysis was performed with several radio-biologically motivated linear and nonlinear dose–response models. For each detrimental health outcome one set of models was identified that all fitted the data about equally well. This set was used for multi-model inference (MMI), a statistical method of superposing different models to allow risk estimates to be based on several plausible dose–response models rather than just relying on a single model of choice. MMI provides a more accurate determination of the dose response and a more comprehensive characterization of uncertainties. It was found that for CeVD, the dose–response curve from MMI is located below the linear no-threshold model at low and medium doses (0–1.4 Gy). At higher doses MMI predicts a higher risk compared to the LNT model. A sublinear dose–response was also found for heart diseases (0–3 Gy). The analyses provide no conclusive answer to the question whether there is a radiation risk below 0.75 Gy for CeVD and 2.6 Gy for heart diseases. MMI suggests that the dose–response curves for CeVD and heart diseases in the Lifespan Study are sublinear at low and moderate doses. This has relevance for radiotherapy treatment planning and for international radiation protection practices in general.

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