scholarly journals Coherent lower and upper conditional previsions defined by Hausdorff inner and outer measures to represent the role of conscious and unconscious thought in human decision making

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Serena Doria
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Hausdorff Dimension ◽  
Partial Information ◽  
Conjunction Fallacy ◽  
Optimal Decision ◽  
Outer Measure ◽  
Unconscious Thought ◽  
Human Decision ◽  
Conditioning Event

AbstractThe model of coherent lower and upper conditional previsions, based on Hausdorff inner and outer measures, is proposed to represent the preference orderings and the equivalences, respectively assigned by the conscious and unconscious thought in human decision making under uncertainty. Complexity of partial information is represented by the Hausdorff dimension of the conditioning event. When the events, that describe the decision problem, are measurable is represented to the s-dimensional Hausdorff outer measure, where s is the Hausdorff dimension of the conditioning event, an optimal decision can be reached. The model is applied and discussed in Linda’s Problem and the conjunction fallacy is resolved.

Better tests of consciousness are needed, but skepticism about unconscious processes is unwarranted

2014 ◽  
Vol 37 (1) ◽  
pp. 36-37 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ryan Ogilvie ◽  
Peter Carruthers
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Iowa Gambling Task ◽  
Causal Role ◽  
Gambling Task ◽  
Unconscious Thought ◽  
Unconscious Processes

AbstractWhat people report is, at times, the best evidence we have for what they experience. Newell & Shanks (N&S) do a service for debates regarding the role of unconscious influences on decision making by offering some sound methodological recommendations. We doubt, however, that those recommendations go far enough. For even if people have knowledge of the factors that influence their decisions, it does not follow that such knowledge is conscious, and plays a causal role, at the time the decision is made. Moreover, N&S fail to demonstrate that unconscious thought plays no role at all in decision making. Indeed, such a claim is quite implausible. In making these points we comment on their discussion of the literature on expertise acquisition and the Iowa Gambling Task.

scholarly journals The role of time in human decision-making

2013 ◽  
Vol 13 (9) ◽  
pp. 305-305
Author(s):  
M. Popovic ◽  
M. Lengyel ◽  
J. Fiser
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Human Decision

scholarly journals Role of automatic, conscious, and unconscious thought processes in complex decision making

1970 ◽  
Vol 14 (1) ◽  
pp. 33-52
Author(s):  
Draženka Levačić ◽  
Mario Pandžić ◽  
Dragan Glavaš
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Careful Examination ◽  
Automatic Processes ◽  
Thought Processes ◽  
Unconscious Thought ◽  
Conscious Thought ◽  
Complex Decision Making ◽  
Complex Decision

A complex decision is any decision which includes choosing among options with numerous describing attributes. Certain decisions are fast, often guided with automatic processes of thought, while other decisions are made much slower with careful examination of all the factors. These processes can have a significant impact on the quality of decision making. The aim of this research was to investigate the effect of automatic, conscious and unconscious thought processes in the context of decision making. Participants were psychology students aged between 19 to 28 years. First experiment investigated the role of three different thought processes on choosing a subjectively best option, as well as TTB heuristic option. The second experiment investigated metacognitive aspects of decision making, precisely, to determine the differences in feeling of rightness (FOR) as well as the tendency to change the decision, depending on the activated thought processes. Different thought processes determined the choice of the subjectively best option. In the conscious thought condition, participants chose the subjectively best option more often than in the automatic or unconscious thought condition. However, there was no difference between conditions in choosing the TTB heuristic option. The feeling of rightness was significantly higher in conscious thought condition than in automatic or unconscious thought condition, but the two latter conditions did not differ in the judgment of feeling of rightness nor did they differ in the tendency to change the decision.

scholarly journals The Effects of Situational and Individual Factors on Algorithm Acceptance in COVID-19-Related Decision-Making: A Preregistered Online Experiment

2021 ◽  
Vol 3 ◽  
pp. 27-46
Author(s):  
Sonja Utz ◽  
Lara Wolfers ◽  
Anja Göritz
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Decision Makers ◽  
Individual Factors ◽  
Online Experiment ◽  
Human Decision ◽  
Attitudes And Knowledge

In times of the COVID-19 pandemic, difficult decisions such as the distribution of ventilators must be made. For many of these decisions, humans could team up with algorithms; however, people often prefer human decision-makers. We examined the role of situational (morality of the scenario; perspective) and individual factors (need for leadership; conventionalism) for algorithm preference in a preregistered online experiment with German adults (n = 1,127). As expected, algorithm preference was lowest in the most moral-laden scenario. The effect of perspective (i.e., decision-makers vs. decision targets) was only significant in the most moral scenario. Need for leadership predicted a stronger algorithm preference, whereas conventionalism was related to weaker algorithm preference. Exploratory analyses revealed that attitudes and knowledge also mattered, stressing the importance of individual factors.

The Role of Analogies in Crisis Decision Making

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
David Patrick Houghton
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Analogical Reasoning ◽  
Optimal Decision ◽  
Current Crisis ◽  
Current Case ◽  
Processing Information ◽  
Optimal Decision Making ◽  
Heuristic Devices ◽  
A Current

Analogical reasoning is a mode of thinking in which a current situation, person, or event is compared with something encountered in the past that appears “similar” to the analogizer. The 2020 Coronavirus crisis was often compared with the 1918 flu epidemic, for instance. In addition to reasoning across time, we can also reason across space, comparing a current case with something that has been encountered within a different geographical space. Sticking with the Coronavirus example, the management of the disease in one country was often compared with that in another, with favorable or unfavorable lessons being drawn. Analogical reasoning plays a major role in crisis decision-making, in large part because decisions made under such circumstances have to be taken in rapid (and, indeed, almost immediate) fashion. When this is the case, it is often tempting to conclude that “this time will resemble last time” or “this problem will resemble a situation confronted elsewhere.” But these analogies are drawn, and decisions are made, by individuals who must confront their own very human cognitive psychological limitations. Since analogies are essentially heuristic devices that cut short the process of informational search, they are usually seen as good enough but do not ensure optimal decision-making. Analogies are at a premium during crisis-like events, but their “bounded” nature means that their use will sometimes lead to errors in processing information. In particular, the drawing of an analogy often leads to an underestimation of ways in which the current crisis is “different” from the baseline event.

The Role of Executive Function in Shaping Reinforcement Learning

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Milena Rmus ◽  
Samuel McDougle ◽  
Anne Collins
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Reinforcement Learning ◽  
Instrumental Behavior ◽  
Complex Environments ◽  
Neural Computations ◽  
Human Decision ◽  
Brain And Behavior ◽  
And Behavior ◽  
The Brain

Reinforcement learning (RL) models have advanced our understanding of how animals learn and make decisions, and how the brain supports some aspects of learning. However, the neural computations that are explained by RL algorithms fall short of explaining many sophisticated aspects of human decision making, including the generalization of learned information, one-shot learning, and the synthesis of task information in complex environments. Instead, these aspects of instrumental behavior are assumed to be supported by the brain’s executive functions (EF). We review recent findings that highlight the importance of EF in learning. Specifically, we advance the theory that EF sets the stage for canonical RL computations in the brain, providing inputs that broaden their flexibility and applicability. Our theory has important implications for how to interpret RL computations in the brain and behavior.

Complexity, Bounded Rationality and Heuristic Search

2002 ◽  
Vol 1 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
W. Bentley MacLeod
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Rational Choice ◽  
Heuristic Search ◽  
Rational Choice Theory ◽  
Choice Theory ◽  
Heuristic Function ◽  
Heuristic Search Algorithms ◽  
Human Decision

Abstract This paper explores the use of heuristic search algorithms for modeling human decision making. It is shown that this algorithm is consistent with many observed behavioral regularities, and may help explain deviations from rational choice. The main insight is that the heuristic function can be viewed as formal implementation of one aspect of emotion as discussed in Descarte's Error by Antonio Damasio. Consistent with Damasio's observations, it is shown that the quality of decision making is very sensitive to the nature of the heuristic ("emotion"), and hence this may help us better understand the role of emotion in rational choice theory.

Tactical Considerations1

2020 ◽  
pp. 154-190
Author(s):  
Seth W. Stoughton ◽  
Jeffrey J. Noble ◽  
Geoffrey P. Alpert
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Use Of Force ◽  
Active Shooter ◽  
Community Members ◽  
Human Decision ◽  
Effects Of Stress ◽  
Police Tactics

Officers do not use force in a vacuum. It has long been recognized that a use of force is not the result of a single decision, but rather of “a contingent sequence of decisions and resulting behaviors—each increasing or decreasing the probability of an eventual use of … force.” How officers approach a situation, then, can affect whether and how they use force. Tactics are the techniques and procedures that officers use to protect themselves and community members. This chapter provides a framework for assessing police tactics, then offers an in-depth discussion of core tactical concepts. It explains why time is the single most important tactical consideration, details the effects of stress on human decision making, and illustrates how officers use tactical choices to “create time” and how they can use that time to minimize their need to use force. The chapter concludes by exploring the role of police tactics in three very different situations: arrests, crisis interventions, and active-shooter situations.

Emotions in Offender Decision Making

2017 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jean-Louis van Gelder
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Theoretical Framework ◽  
Cognitive Sciences ◽  
Offending Behavior ◽  
Human Decision ◽  
Understanding Emotions ◽  
Crime Causation

This chapter examines the influence of emotions on offender decision making. It reviews the empirical and theoretical criminological literature on the role of emotions in crime causation but also draws from other disciplines in the behavioral and cognitive sciences that have examined the influence of emotions on human decision making. Specific attention is devoted to appraisal theories of emotion, which, it is argued, provide a useful theoretical framework for studying and understanding emotions in criminal contexts. In doing so, it is shown that criminal decision-making research and theorizing may have so far failed to fully acknowledge the influence of emotions on offending behavior.

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