Shifts in migration phenology under climate change: temperature vs. abundance effects in birds

2020 ◽  
Vol 159 (2) ◽  
pp. 177-194 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jaroslav Koleček ◽  
Peter Adamík ◽  
Jiří Reif
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Migration Phenology ◽  
Change Temperature

scholarly journals A framework for evaluating regional hydrologic sensitivity to climate change using archetypal watershed modeling

2013 ◽  
Vol 17 (8) ◽  
pp. 3077-3094 ◽  
Author(s):  
S. R. Lopez ◽  
T. S. Hogue ◽  
E. D. Stein
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Watershed Modeling ◽  
Suspended Sediments ◽  
Precipitation Variability ◽  
Sediment Flux ◽  
Urban Systems ◽  
Climate Scenarios ◽  
Hydrologic Simulation ◽  
Change Temperature ◽  
Land Covers

Abstract. The current study focuses on the development of a regional framework to evaluate hydrologic and sediment sensitivity, at various stages of urban development, due to predicted future climate variability. We develop archetypal watersheds, which are regional representations of observed physiographic features (i.e., geomorphology, land cover patterns, etc.) with a synthetic basin size and reach network. Each of the three regional archetypes (urban, vegetated and mixed urban/vegetated land covers) simulates satisfactory regional hydrologic and sediment behavior compared to historical observations prior to a climate sensitivity analysis. Climate scenarios considered a range of increasing temperatures, as estimated by the IPCC, and precipitation variability based on historical observations and expectations. Archetypal watersheds are modeled using the Environmental Protection Agency's Hydrologic Simulation Program–Fortran model (EPA HSPF) and relative changes to streamflow and sediment flux are evaluated. Results indicate that the variability and extent of vegetation play a key role in watershed sensitivity to predicted climate change. Temperature increase alone causes a decrease in annual flow and an increase in sediment flux within the vegetated archetypal watershed only, and these effects are partially mitigated by the presence of impervious surfaces within the urban and mixed archetypal watersheds. Depending on the extent of precipitation variability, urban and moderately urban systems can expect the largest alteration in flow regimes where high-flow events increase in frequency and magnitude. As a result, enhanced wash-off of suspended sediments from available pervious surfaces is expected.

scholarly journals Climate change effects on migration phenology may mismatch brood parasitic cuckoos and their hosts

2009 ◽  
Vol 5 (4) ◽  
pp. 539-541 ◽  
Author(s):  
Nicola Saino ◽  
Diego Rubolini ◽  
Esa Lehikoinen ◽  
Leonid V. Sokolov ◽  
Andrea Bonisoli-Alquati ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Short Distance ◽  
Life Cycles ◽  
Trophic Levels ◽  
Negative Consequences ◽  
Long Distance ◽  
Climate Change Effects ◽  
Parasitism Rates ◽  
Migration Phenology ◽  
Spring Arrival

Phenological responses to climate change vary among taxa and across trophic levels. This can lead to a mismatch between the life cycles of ecologically interrelated populations (e.g. predators and prey), with negative consequences for population dynamics of some of the interacting species. Here we provide, to our knowledge, the first evidence that climate change might disrupt the association between the life cycles of the common cuckoo ( Cuculus canorus ), a migratory brood parasitic bird, and its hosts. We investigated changes in timing of spring arrival of the cuckoo and its hosts throughout Europe over six decades, and found that short-distance, but not long-distance, migratory hosts have advanced their arrival more than the cuckoo. Hence, cuckoos may keep track of phenological changes of long-distance, but not short-distance migrant hosts, with potential consequences for breeding of both cuckoo and hosts. The mismatch to some of the important hosts may contribute to the decline of cuckoo populations and explain some of the observed local changes in parasitism rates of migratory hosts.

The impact of temperature on population and community dynamics

2020 ◽  
pp. 243-262
Author(s):  
David A. Vasseur
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Carrying Capacity ◽  
Environmental Variables ◽  
Community Dynamics ◽  
Thermal Sensitivity ◽  
Theoretical Work ◽  
Vital Rates ◽  
Change Temperature ◽  
Population And Community Dynamics ◽  
The Impact

Of the myriad of environmental variables that are currently in flux due to anthropogenic climate change, temperature is one of the most ubiquitous and well-studied. Temperature directly influences the vital rates and ecological thresholds that determine how quickly populations grow or decline and many studies have sought to determine how these influences culminate at the population and community level. This chapter surveys the theoretical work in this area and details how our growing understanding of the relationships between temperature and vital rates and thresholds has led to new insights and challenges. The latter sections of the chapter reveal a key principle to guide the ongoing debate about the temperature-dependence of a key parameter underlying nearly all population and community models: the carrying capacity. From this, a simple model is used to demonstrate how linkages between the thermal sensitivity of population growth and carrying capacity determine dynamics and the propensity for extinction in warming environments.

scholarly journals Extinction in Eden: identifying the role of climate change in the decline of the koala in south-eastern NSW

2014 ◽  
Vol 41 (1) ◽  
pp. 22 ◽  
Author(s):  
Daniel Lunney ◽  
Eleanor Stalenberg ◽  
Truly Santika ◽  
Jonathan R. Rhodes
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Survey Data ◽  
Habitat Loss ◽  
Human Population ◽  
Human Impacts ◽  
Population Analysis ◽  
Community Survey ◽  
South Eastern ◽  
South Wales ◽  
Change Temperature

Context Reviews of climate change in Australia have identified that it is imposing additional stresses on biodiversity, which is already under threat from multiple human impacts. Aims The present study aimed to determine the contributions of several factors to the demise of the koala in the Eden region in south-eastern New South Wales and, in particular, to establish to what extent climate change may have exacerbated the decline. Methods The study built on several community-based koala surveys in the Eden region since 1986, verified through interviews with survey respondents. Historical records as far back as the late 19th century, wildlife databases and field-based surveys were used to independently validate the community survey data and form a reliable picture of changes in the Eden koala population. Analysis of the community survey data used a logistic model to assess the contribution of known threats to koalas, including habitat loss measured as changes in foliage projective cover, fire, increases in the human population and climate change in the form of changes in temperature and rainfall, to the regional decline of this species. Key results We found a marked, long-term shrinkage in the distribution of the koala across the Eden region. Our modelling demonstrated that a succession of multiple threats to koalas from land use (human population growth and habitat loss) and environmental change (temperature increase and drought) were significant contributors to this decline. Conclusions Climate change, particularly drought and rising temperatures, has been a hitherto hidden factor that has been a major driver of the decline of the koala in the Eden region. Implications Development of strategies to help fauna adapt to the changing climate is of paramount importance, particularly at a local scale.

scholarly journals Effects of Temperature and Precipitation on Breeding Migrations of Amphibian Species in Southeastern Norway

Scientifica ◽  
2016 ◽  
Vol 2016 ◽  
pp. 1-8 ◽  
Author(s):  
Børre K. Dervo ◽  
Kim Magnus Bærum ◽  
Jostein Skurdal ◽  
Jon Museth
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Mixed Model ◽  
Linear Mixed Model ◽  
Survival Rates ◽  
General Context ◽  
Amphibian Species ◽  
Temperature And Precipitation ◽  
Migration Phenology ◽  
Effects Of Temperature ◽  
Southern Norway

To reveal the effects of climate, a generalized linear mixed model was used to explore the variation in onset of spawning migration for the two newt speciesT. cristatusandL. vulgarisin southern Norway. Amphibians are highly influenced by the physical environment, such as temperature and rainfall. The first migrating newts were observed subsequently to the three first consecutive days with mean temperature close to or above 4°C. Further, migration ofL. vulgariswas facilitated at lower temperatures compared toT. cristatus, but the migration was dependent on higher precipitation levels. Northern populations ofT. cristatusandL. vulgarismay already benefit from a warmer climate due to increased recruitment and juvenile survival. However, an offset in the migration phenology due to climate change might further alter the recruitment and survival rates with either positive or negative outcome. Thus, variations in migration phenology for newts due to climate change may have implications for management and protection status in many systems. In a general context, we should increase emphasis on protecting newts and support increased populations and distribution.

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