The Identification of Low-risk Gambling Limits for Specific Gambling Activities

This study derived a set of Australian low-risk gambling limits and explored the relative and absolute risk associated with exceeding these limits. Secondary analysis of population-representative Tasmanian and Australian Capital Territory (ACT) cross-sectional (11,597 respondents) and longitudinal studies (2027 respondents) was conducted. Balancing sensitivity and specificity, the limits were: gambling frequency of 20–30 times per year; gambling expenditure of AUD $380–$615 per year (USD $240–$388 per year); gambling expenditure comprising 0.83–1.68% of gross personal income; and two types of gambling activities per year. All limits, except number of activities, predicted subsequent harm, with limits related to gambling expenditure consistently the best-performing. Exceeding the limits generally conferred a higher degree of relative and absolute risk, with gamblers exceeding the limits being 3–20 times more likely to experience harm than those who do not, and having a 5–17% risk of experiencing harm. Only 7–12% of gamblers exceeding the limits actually experienced harm. Gambling consumption lower than the limits also conferred a considerable amount of harm. Using a relative risk method, this study derived similar limits from disparate Australian states and territories. These limits can serve as working guidelines for the consideration of researchers, clinicians, and policy makers, but need to be subject to further rigorous empirical investigation.

Download Full-text

The total volume of gambling and the prevalence of gambling problems

Setting Limits ◽

10.1093/oso/9780198817321.003.0006 ◽

2018 ◽

pp. 71-86

Author(s):

Pekka Sulkunen ◽

Thomas F. Babor ◽

Jenny Cisneros Örnberg ◽

Michael Egerer ◽

Matilda Hellman ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Large Fraction ◽

Low Risk ◽

Gambling Problems ◽

Adaptation Theory ◽

Total Consumption ◽

Excessive Gambling ◽

Consumption Model ◽

Total Consumption Model ◽

Gambling Activities ◽

Gambling Expenditures

The total consumption model (TCM) implies that only a small fraction of gamblers account for a very large fraction of all gambling activities and of all gambling expenditures. This does not necessarily mean that every gambler with high gambling expenses has problems, but the probability increases with increasing intensity. Ironically, heavy gamblers are influenced by the activities of those who participate only moderately: the more people take up gambling, the more likely vulnerable individuals will be recruited as well. The importance of total volume of gambling in society is reinforced by the fact that the accumulated harm caused by low-risk gamblers in fact exceeds the harm caused by excessive gambling. Although adaptation theory suggests that harmful consequences recede once the novelty of innovation subsides, every increase in consumption increases the risk of harm.

Download Full-text

Canadian Low Risk Gambling Limits: New Evidence and Limitations

The Canadian Journal of Addiction ◽

10.1097/02024458-200912000-00088 ◽

2009 ◽

Vol 1 (1) ◽

pp. 38

Author(s):

Shawn Currie

Keyword(s):

Low Risk ◽

New Evidence ◽

Risk Gambling

Download Full-text

Predicting Future Harm from Gambling over a Five-Year period in a General Population Sample: A Survival Analysis

10.21203/rs.3.rs-42471/v3 ◽

2020 ◽

Author(s):

Shawn Currie ◽

David Hodgins ◽

Robert Williams ◽

Kirsten Fiest

Keyword(s):

Risk Factors ◽

Problem Gambling ◽

Life Events ◽

Stressful Life Events ◽

Low Risk ◽

Modifiable Risk Factors ◽

Electronic Gaming Machines ◽

Risk Gambling ◽

Gaming Machines ◽

Over Time

Abstract Background. There is little longitudinal evidence on the cumulative risk of harm from gambling associated with excess spending and frequency of play. The present study sought to assess the risk of gambling problems over a five-year period in adults who exceed previously derived low-risk gambling limits compared to those who remain within the limits after controlling for other modifiable risk factors. Methods. Participants were adults (N = 4212) drawn from two independent Canadian longitudinal cohort studies who reported gambling in the past year and were free of problem gambling at time 1. Multivariate Cox regression was employed to assess the impact over time of gambling above low-risk gambling thresholds (frequency ≥ 8 times per month; expenditure ≥ 75CAD per month; percent of household income spent on gambling ≥ 1.7%) on developing moderate harm and problem gambling. Covariates included presence of a DSM5 addiction or mental health disorder at time 1, irrational gambling beliefs, number of stressful life events in past 12 months, number of game types played each year, and playing electronic gaming machines or casino games. Results. In both samples, exceeding the low-risk gambling limits at time 1 significantly increased the risk of moderate harm (defined as ≥ 2 consequences on the Problem Gambling Severity Index [PGSI]) within five years after controlling for other modifiable risk factors. Other significant predictors of harm were presence of a mental disorder at time 1, cognitive distortions about gambling, stressful life events, and playing electronic gaming machines or casino games. In one sample, the five-year cumulative survival rate for moderate harm among individuals who stayed below all the low-risk limits was 95% compared to 83% among gamblers who exceeded all limits. Each additional low-risk limit exceeded increased the cumulative probability of harm by 30%. Similar results were found in models when the outcome was problem gambling.Conclusions. Level of gambling involvement represents a highly modifiable risk factor for later harm. Staying below empirically derived safe gambling thresholds reduces the risk of harm over time.

Download Full-text

A research plan to define Canada’s first low-risk gambling guidelines

Health Promotion International ◽

10.1093/heapro/day074 ◽

2018 ◽

Vol 34 (6) ◽

pp. 1207-1217 ◽

Cited By ~ 2

Author(s):

Shawn R Currie ◽

Shawn Currie ◽

Marie-Claire Flores-Pajot ◽

David Hodgins ◽

Louise Nadeau ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Public Health ◽

Emotional Health ◽

Large Population ◽

Population Data ◽

Low Risk ◽

Public Health Perspective ◽

Cross Sectional ◽

Similar Dose ◽

Nationally Representative ◽

Risk Gambling

AbstractFrom a public health perspective, gambling shares many of the same characteristics as alcohol. Notably, excessive gambling is associated with many physical and emotional health harms, including depression, suicidal ideation, substance use and addiction and greater utilization of health care resources. Gambling also demonstrates a similar ‘dose-response’ relationship as alcohol—the more one gambles, the greater the likelihood of harm. Using the same collaborative, evidence-informed approach that produced Canada’s Low-Risk Alcohol Drinking and Lower Risk Cannabis Use Guidelines, a research team is leading the development of the first national Low-Risk Gambling Guidelines (LRGGs) that will include quantitative thresholds for safe gambling. This paper describes the research methodology and the decision-making process for the project. The guidelines will be derived through secondary analyses of several large population datasets from Canada and other countries, including both cross-sectional and longitudinal data on over 50 000 adults. A scientific committee will pool the results and put forward recommendations for LRGGs to a nationally representative, multi-agency advisory committee for endorsement. To our knowledge, this is the first systematic attempt to generate a workable set of LRGGs from population data. Once validated, the guidelines inform public health policy and prevention initiatives and will be disseminated to addiction professionals, policy makers, regulators, communication experts and the gambling industry. The availability of the LRGGs will help the general public make well-informed decisions about their gambling activities and reduce the harms associated with gambling.

Download Full-text

Predicting Future Harm from Gambling over a Five-Year period in a General Population Sample: A Survival Analysis

10.21203/rs.3.rs-42471/v2 ◽

2020 ◽

Author(s):

Shawn Currie ◽

David Hodgins ◽

Robert Williams ◽

Kirsten Fiest

Keyword(s):

Risk Factors ◽

Problem Gambling ◽

Life Events ◽

Stressful Life Events ◽

Low Risk ◽

Modifiable Risk Factors ◽

Electronic Gaming Machines ◽

Risk Gambling ◽

Gaming Machines ◽

Over Time

Abstract Background. There is little longitudinal evidence on the cumulative risk of harm from gambling associated with excess spending and frequency of play. The present study sought to assess the risk of gambling problems over a five-year period in adults who exceed previously derived low-risk gambling limits compared to those who remain within the limits after controlling for other modifiable risk factors. Methods. Participants were adults (N = 4212) drawn from two independent Canadian longitudinal cohort studies who reported gambling in the past year and were free of problem gambling at time 1. Multivariate Cox regression was employed to assess the impact over time of gambling above low-risk gambling thresholds (frequency ≥ 8 times per month; expenditure ≥ $75CAN per month; percent of household income spent on gambling ≥ 1.7%) on developing moderate harm and problem gambling. Covariates included presence of a DSM5 addiction or mental health disorder at time 1, irrational gambling beliefs, number of stressful life events in past 12 months, number of game types played each year, and playing electronic gaming machines or casino games. Results. In both samples, exceeding the low-risk gambling limits at time 1 significantly increased the risk of moderate harm (defined as ≥ 2 consequences on the Problem Gambling Severity Index [PGSI]) within five years after controlling for other modifiable risk factors. Other significant predictors of harm were presence of a mental disorder at time 1, cognitive distortions about gambling, stressful life events, and playing electronic gaming machines or casino games. In one sample, the five-year cumulative survival rate for moderate harm among individuals who stayed below all the low-risk limits was 95% compared to 83% among gamblers who exceeded all limits. Each additional low-risk limit exceeded increased the cumulative probability of harm by 30%. Similar results were found in models when the outcome was problem gambling.Conclusions. Level of gambling involvement represents a highly modifiable risk factor for later harm. Staying below empirically derived safe gambling thresholds reduces the risk of harm over time.

Download Full-text

Commentary on Currie et al . (2017): Low-risk gambling limits-a bridge too far?

Addiction ◽

10.1111/add.14017 ◽

2017 ◽

Vol 112 (11) ◽

pp. 2021-2022 ◽

Cited By ~ 1

Author(s):

Max W. Abbott

Keyword(s):

Low Risk ◽

Risk Gambling

Download Full-text

Examining the predictive validity of low-risk gambling limits with longitudinal data

Addiction ◽

10.1111/j.1360-0443.2011.03622.x ◽

2011 ◽

Vol 107 (2) ◽

pp. 400-406 ◽

Cited By ~ 31

Author(s):

Shawn R. Currie ◽

David C. Hodgins ◽

David M. Casey ◽

Nady el-Guebaly ◽

Garry J. Smith ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Longitudinal Data ◽

Predictive Validity ◽

Low Risk ◽

Risk Gambling

Download Full-text

Predicting Future Harm from Gambling over a Five-Year period in a General Population Sample: A Survival Analysis

10.21203/rs.3.rs-42471/v1 ◽

2020 ◽

Author(s):

Shawn Currie ◽

David Hodgins ◽

Robert Williams ◽

Kirsten Fiest

Keyword(s):

Risk Factors ◽

Life Events ◽

Stressful Life Events ◽

Low Risk ◽

Stressful Life ◽

Gambling Problems ◽

Electronic Gaming Machines ◽

Risk Gambling ◽

Gaming Machines ◽

Over Time

Abstract Background There is little longitudinal evidence on the cumulative risk of harm from gambling associated with excess spending and frequency of play. The present study sought to assess over a five-year period the risk of gambling problems in adults who exceed previously derived low-risk gambling limits compared to those who remain within the limits after controlling for other modifiable psychosocial risk factors. Methods Participants were adults (N = 4212) drawn from two independent Canadian longitudinal cohort studies (Quinte Longitudinal Study and Leisure, Lifestyle, and Lifecycle Project) who reported gambling in the past year and were free of problem gambling at time 1. Multivariate Cox regression was employed to assess the impact of gambling above low-risk gambling thresholds (frequency ≥ 8 times per month; expenditure ≥ $75CAN per month; percent of household income spent on gambling ≥ 1.7%) on developing gambling problems over time. Covariates included presence of a DSM 5 addiction or mental health disorder at time 1, irrational gambling beliefs, number of stressful life events in past 12 months, number of game types played each year, and playing electronic gaming machines or casino games. Results In both samples, exceeding the low-risk gambling limits at time 1 significantly increased the risk of moderate harm within five years after controlling for other modifiable risk factors. Other significant predictors of harm were presence of a mental disorder at time 1, cognitive distortions about gambling, stressful life events, and playing electronic gaming machines or casino games. In the QLS sample, the five-year cumulative survival rate among individuals who stayed below all the low-risk limits was 95% compared to 83% among gamblers who exceeded all limits. Each additional low-risk limit exceeded increased the cumulative probability of harm by 30%. Conclusions Level of gambling involvement represents a highly modifiable risk factor for later harm. Staying below empirically derived safe gambling thresholds reduces the risk of harm over time.

Download Full-text