Future forest dynamics under climate change, land use change, and harvest in subtropical forests in Southern China

2019 ◽  
Vol 34 (4) ◽  
pp. 843-863 ◽  
Author(s):  
Zhuo Wu ◽  
Erfu Dai ◽  
Zhifeng Wu ◽  
Meizhen Lin
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Land Use ◽  
Land Use Change ◽  
Forest Dynamics ◽  
Southern China ◽  
Subtropical Forests

scholarly journals Impacts of Land Use Change on the Regional Climate: A Structural Equation Modeling Study in Southern China

2015 ◽  
Vol 2015 ◽  
pp. 1-10 ◽  
Author(s):  
Zhanqi Wang ◽  
Bingqing Li ◽  
Jun Yang
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Land Use ◽  
Land Use Change ◽  
Structural Equation ◽  
Southern China ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Regional Climate Change ◽  
Equation Modeling ◽  
Surrounding Area ◽  
Rapid Urbanization

With the frequent human activities operating on the earth, the impacts of land use change on the regional climate are increasingly perceptible. Under the background of the rapid urbanization, understanding the impacts of land use change on the regional climate change is vital and significant. In this study, we investigated the relationships between land use change and regional climate change through a structural equation model. Southern China was selected as the study area for its rapid urbanization and different structure of land use among its counties. The results indicate that the path coefficients of “vegetation,” “Urban and surrounding area,” and “other” to “climate” are −0.42, 0.20, and 0.46, respectively. Adding vegetation area is the main method to mitigate regional climate change. Urban and surrounding area and other areas influence regional climate by increasing temperature and precipitation to a certain extent. Adding grassland and forestry, restraining sprawl of built-up area, and making the most use of unused land are efficient ways to mitigate the regional climate change in Southern China. The results can provide feasible recommendations to land use policy maker.

scholarly journals Relative Importance of Land Use and Climate Change on Hydrology in Agricultural Watershed of Southern China

2020 ◽  
Vol 12 (16) ◽  
pp. 6423
Author(s):  
Lanhua Luo ◽  
Qing Zhou ◽  
Hong S. He ◽  
Liangxia Duan ◽  
Gaoling Zhang ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Land Use ◽  
Land Use Change ◽  
River Basin ◽  
Laboratory Experiments ◽  
Southern China ◽  
Swat Model ◽  
Efficiency Coefficient ◽  
Soil Database ◽  
The Impact

Quantitative assessment of the impact of land use and climate change on hydrological processes is of great importance to water resources planning and management. The main objective of this study was to quantitatively assess the response of runoff to land use and climate change in the Zhengshui River Basin of Southern China, a heavily used agricultural basin. The Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) was used to simulate the river runoff for the Zhengshui River Basin. Specifically, a soil database was constructed based on field work and laboratory experiments as input data for the SWAT model. Following SWAT calibration, simulated results were compared with observed runoff data for the period 2006 to 2013. The Nash-Sutcliffe Efficiency Coefficient (NSE) and the correlation coefficient (R2) for the comparisons were greater than 0.80, indicating close agreement. The calibrated models were applied to simulate monthly runoff in 1990 and 2010 for four scenarios with different land use and climate conditions. Climate change played a dominant role affecting runoff of this basin, with climate change decreasing simulated runoff by −100.22% in 2010 compared to that of 1990, land use change increasing runoff in this basin by 0.20% and the combination of climate change and land use change decreasing runoff by 60.8m3/s. The decrease of forestland area and the corresponding increase of developed land and cultivated land area led to the small increase in runoff associated with land use change. The influence of precipitation on runoff was greater than temperature. The soil database used to model runoff with the SWAT model for the basin was constructed using a combination of field investigation and laboratory experiments, and simulations of runoff based on that new soil database more closely matched observations of runoff than simulations based on the generic Harmonized World Soil Database (HWSD). This study may provide an important reference to guide management decisions for this and similar watersheds.

scholarly journals Dynamics of soil organic carbon in the steppes of Russia and Kazakhstan under past and future climate and land use

2021 ◽  
Vol 21 (3) ◽  
Author(s):  
Susanne Rolinski ◽  
Alexander V. Prishchepov ◽  
Georg Guggenberger ◽  
Norbert Bischoff ◽  
Irina Kurganova ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Land Use ◽  
Organic Carbon ◽  
Land Use Change ◽  
Soil Organic Carbon ◽  
Arable Land ◽  
Future Climate ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Climate Scenarios ◽  
The Impact

AbstractChanges in land use and climate are the main drivers of change in soil organic matter contents. We investigated the impact of the largest policy-induced land conversion to arable land, the Virgin Lands Campaign (VLC), from 1954 to 1963, of the massive cropland abandonment after 1990 and of climate change on soil organic carbon (SOC) stocks in steppes of Russia and Kazakhstan. We simulated carbon budgets from the pre-VLC period (1900) until 2100 using a dynamic vegetation model to assess the impacts of observed land-use change as well as future climate and land-use change scenarios. The simulations suggest for the entire VLC region (266 million hectares) that the historic cropland expansion resulted in emissions of 1.6⋅ 1015 g (= 1.6 Pg) carbon between 1950 and 1965 compared to 0.6 Pg in a scenario without the expansion. From 1990 to 2100, climate change alone is projected to cause emissions of about 1.8 (± 1.1) Pg carbon. Hypothetical recultivation of the cropland that has been abandoned after the fall of the Soviet Union until 2050 may cause emissions of 3.5 (± 0.9) Pg carbon until 2100, whereas the abandonment of all cropland until 2050 would lead to sequestration of 1.8 (± 1.2) Pg carbon. For the climate scenarios based on SRES (Special Report on Emission Scenarios) emission pathways, SOC declined only moderately for constant land use but substantially with further cropland expansion. The variation of SOC in response to the climate scenarios was smaller than that in response to the land-use scenarios. This suggests that the effects of land-use change on SOC dynamics may become as relevant as those of future climate change in the Eurasian steppes.

scholarly journals Governing the global commons: an ethical-legal framework

2017 ◽  
Vol 13 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Prue Taylor
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Land Use ◽  
Land Use Change ◽  
Ocean Acidification ◽  
Greenhouse Gas Emissions ◽  
Greenhouse Gas ◽  
Legal Framework ◽  
State System ◽  
Global Commons ◽  
Global Challenges

Governance of the Earth’s global ecological commons creates unprecedented challenges for humanity. Our traditional Westphalian state system was not designed to respond to these global challenges and thus far it has failed to transform. Climate change is the current headline issue; 30 years on and we still swing between hope and despair about our collective ability to radically reduce greenhouse gas emissions. Related issues are beginning to vie for our response: ocean acidification, mass species extinction, land use change and freshwater scarcity. 

scholarly journals Modeling Urban Futures: Data-Driven Scenarios of Climate Change and Vulnerability in Cities

2021 ◽  
pp. 129-144
Author(s):  
L. Ortiz ◽  
A. Mustafa ◽  
B. Rosenzweig ◽  
Timon McPhearson
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Land Use ◽  
Cellular Automata ◽  
Land Use Change ◽  
Numerical Models ◽  
Flood Hazards ◽  
Ancillary Data ◽  
Road Systems ◽  
Urban Futures ◽  
Land Use Development

AbstractCities are complex systems where social, ecological, and technological processes are deeply coupled. This coupling complicates urban planning and land use development, as changing one facet of the urban fabric will likely impact the others. As cities grapple with climate change, there is a growing need to envision urban futures that not only address more frequent and intense severe weather events but also improve day-to-day livability. Here we examine climate risks as functions of the local land use with numerical models. These models leverage a wide array of data sources, from satellite imagery to tax assessments and land cover. We then present a machine-learning cellular automata approach to combine historical land use change with local coproduced urban future scenarios. The cellular automata model uses historical and ancillary data like existing road systems and natural features to develop a set of probabilistic land use change rules, which are then modified according to stakeholder priorities. The resulting land use scenarios are evaluated against historical flood hazards, showcasing how they perform against stakeholder expectations. Our work shows that coproduced scenarios, when grounded with historical and emerging data, can provide paths that increase resilience to weather hazards as well as enhancing ecosystem services provided to citizens.

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