scholarly journals Relative Importance of Land Use and Climate Change on Hydrology in Agricultural Watershed of Southern China

2020 ◽  
Vol 12 (16) ◽  
pp. 6423
Author(s):  
Lanhua Luo ◽  
Qing Zhou ◽  
Hong S. He ◽  
Liangxia Duan ◽  
Gaoling Zhang ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Land Use ◽  
Land Use Change ◽  
River Basin ◽  
Laboratory Experiments ◽  
Southern China ◽  
Swat Model ◽  
Efficiency Coefficient ◽  
Soil Database ◽  
The Impact

Quantitative assessment of the impact of land use and climate change on hydrological processes is of great importance to water resources planning and management. The main objective of this study was to quantitatively assess the response of runoff to land use and climate change in the Zhengshui River Basin of Southern China, a heavily used agricultural basin. The Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) was used to simulate the river runoff for the Zhengshui River Basin. Specifically, a soil database was constructed based on field work and laboratory experiments as input data for the SWAT model. Following SWAT calibration, simulated results were compared with observed runoff data for the period 2006 to 2013. The Nash-Sutcliffe Efficiency Coefficient (NSE) and the correlation coefficient (R2) for the comparisons were greater than 0.80, indicating close agreement. The calibrated models were applied to simulate monthly runoff in 1990 and 2010 for four scenarios with different land use and climate conditions. Climate change played a dominant role affecting runoff of this basin, with climate change decreasing simulated runoff by −100.22% in 2010 compared to that of 1990, land use change increasing runoff in this basin by 0.20% and the combination of climate change and land use change decreasing runoff by 60.8m3/s. The decrease of forestland area and the corresponding increase of developed land and cultivated land area led to the small increase in runoff associated with land use change. The influence of precipitation on runoff was greater than temperature. The soil database used to model runoff with the SWAT model for the basin was constructed using a combination of field investigation and laboratory experiments, and simulations of runoff based on that new soil database more closely matched observations of runoff than simulations based on the generic Harmonized World Soil Database (HWSD). This study may provide an important reference to guide management decisions for this and similar watersheds.

scholarly journals Impact of changes in land use and climate on the Runoff in the coastal areas of South China—A case study of the Nanliujiang catchment

2018 ◽  
Vol 246 ◽  
pp. 02001
Author(s):  
Mingzhi Yang ◽  
Weihua Xiao ◽  
Yong Zhao ◽  
Ya Huang ◽  
Baoqi Li ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Land Use ◽  
Land Use Change ◽  
South China ◽  
Coastal Area ◽  
Swat Model ◽  
Efficiency Coefficient ◽  
Annual Average ◽  
Runoff Depth ◽  
The Impact

The intense climate changes and human activities have a great impact on the variation of the runoff of the coastal area of South China. In this work, the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) is used to quantify the impact of land use and climate change of the Nanliujiang catchment on the runoff by setting 4 scenarios of land-use and climate change. The results show the runoff of the simulated and measured values had a similar trend. The value of relevant coefficient is above 0.8, and the value of Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency coefficient is about 0.8, which indicate that the SWAT model is fit for the study area. The annual average runoff depth during the period from 1995 to 2013 has increased by 53.5mm, of which the land use change resulted in 13.0mm increase on the annual average runoff depth while the climate change resulted in 40.9mm increase on the annual average runoff depth, therefore, the climate change has greater effect then the land use change. This work will delineate some helpful information for the water resources management as well as ecological protection in the coastal area of South China.

scholarly journals Analyzing the impacts of climate and land use changes on the water quality in the 3S river basin

2019 ◽  
Vol 2 (2) ◽  
pp. 125-131
Author(s):  
Loi Thi Pham ◽  
Khoi Nguyen Dao
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Water Quality ◽  
Land Use ◽  
Water Resources ◽  
Land Use Change ◽  
River Basin ◽  
Water Resource Management ◽  
Hydrological Modeling ◽  
Swat Model ◽  
The Impact

Assessing water resources under the influence of environmental change have gained attentions of scientists. The objective of this study was to analyze the impacts of land use change and climate change on water resources in terms quantity and quality in the 3S basin in the period 1981–2008 by using hydrological modeling (SWAT model). The results showed that streamflow and water quality (TSS, T-N, and T-P) tend to increase under individual and combined effects of climate change and land use change. In addition, the impact of land use change on the flow was smaller than the climate change impact. However, water balance components and water quality were equally affected by two factors of climate change and land use change. In general, the results of this study could serve as a reference for water resource management and planning in the river basin.

scholarly journals Attribution of Runoff Reduction in the Juma River Basin to Climate Variation, Direct Human Intervention, and Land Use Change

Water ◽  
2018 ◽  
Vol 10 (12) ◽  
pp. 1775 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jingyi Bu ◽  
Chunxia Lu ◽  
Jun Niu ◽  
Yanchun Gao
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Land Use ◽  
Land Use Change ◽  
River Basin ◽  
Human Activities ◽  
Climate Variation ◽  
Stochastic Methods ◽  
Human Intervention ◽  
Runoff Reduction ◽  
The Impact

Juma River, located in the Midwest of the Haihe River basin, is an important source of water supply to Beijing and Hebei. Over the past decades, the region has been seriously threatened by water shortages owing to complex climate conditions and intensive human activities. This study investigated the runoff characteristics of the Juma River by employing the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) and stochastic methods for the period of 1961–2013. Accordingly, the runoff changes attributed to the climate variation and different types of anthropogenic activities (land use change and direct human intervention) were estimated, respectively, in conjunction with the improved quantitative response analysis. The results indicated that the annual runoff of both Zijingguan station and Zhangfang station has decreased significantly at the 0.001 significance level, and reduction rates were −0.054 billion m3 and −0.10 billion m3, respectively. Moreover, the persistency of this trend has been shown for decades (Hurst coefficient > 0.50). The SWAT model was calibrated and validated during the baseline period of 1961–1978. Significant rising temperatures and declining precipitation were the main reasons for runoff reduction, especially during the two periods of 1998–2002 and 2003–2008. Additionally, water withdrawal of Wuyi canal aggravated the runoff reduction and water scarcity conditions in the region. After 2009, the effects of direct human intervention exceeded those of climate change. However, the impact of land use change can be seen as negligible during the study period. Climate change had a greater effect on runoff reduction in winter, while the impact of human activities was more dramatic in summer.

scholarly journals Effects of climate change and human activities on runoff in the Nenjiang River Basin, Northeast China

2012 ◽  
Vol 9 (10) ◽  
pp. 11521-11549 ◽  
Author(s):  
L. Q. Dong ◽  
G. X. Zhang ◽  
Y. J. Xu
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Land Use ◽  
Land Use Change ◽  
River Basin ◽  
Human Activities ◽  
Northeast China ◽  
Dominant Factor ◽  
Runoff Reduction ◽  
Nenjiang River Basin ◽  
The Impact

Abstract. The Nenjiang River Basin (NRB) is an important grain-production region with abundant wetlands in Northeast China. Climate change and anthropogenic activities have dramatically altered the spatial and temporal distribution of regional stream discharge and water resources, which poses a serious threat to wetland ecosystems and sustainable agriculture. In this study, we analyzed 55-yr (1956–2010) rainfall and runoff patterns in the river basin to quantitatively evaluate the impact of human activities on regional hydrology. The long-term hydrologic series were divided into two periods: period I (1956–1974), during which minimum land use change occurred, and period II (1975–2010), during which land use change intensified. Kendall's rank correlation test, non-parametric Pettitt test and precipitation-runoff double cumulative curve (DCC) methods were utilized to identify the trends and thresholds of the annual runoff in the upstream, midstream, and downstream basin areas. Our results showed that the runoff in the NRB has continuously declined in the past 55 yr, and that the effects of climate change and human activities on the runoff reduction varied in the upstream, midstream and downstream area over different time scales. For the entire study period, climate change has been the dominant factor, accounting for 69.6–80.3% of the reduction in the total basin runoff. However, the impact of human activities has been increasing from 19.7% during the 1950s–1970s to 30.4% in the present time. Spatially, the runoff reduction became higher from the upstream to the downstream areas, revealing an increasing threat of water availability to the large wetland ecosystem in the lower river basin. Furthermore, the sustainable development of irrigated agriculture in the NRB will be a threat to the survival of the wetlands.

scholarly journals Interactive influence of climate variability and land-use change on blue and green water resources: a case study from the Ganjiang River Basin, China

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Wenting Li ◽  
Xiaoli Yang ◽  
Liliang Ren ◽  
Qianguo Lin ◽  
Xiong Zhou ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Land Use ◽  
Water Resources ◽  
Land Use Change ◽  
River Basin ◽  
Swat Model ◽  
Green Water ◽  
Maximum Temperature ◽  
Blue Water ◽  
Ganjiang River Basin

Abstract The response of blue and green water to climate and land-use change in the Ganjiang River Basin (GRB) is evaluated, via the SWAT model that combines three scenarios (the land-use/land-cover (LULC), climate change, and integrated climate and LULC change scenarios) in the 2040s (2031–2050) and 2060s (2051–2070). The results indicate that, for the GRB, cropland, woodland, and grassland show a decreasing trend, while build-up and water areas show an increasing trend in terms of future land-use change. The climatic conditions projected using NORESM1-M model data under the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios suggest, respectively, increases in precipitation (31.17 and 27.24 mm), maximum temperature (2.25 and 2.69 °C), and minimum temperature (1.96 and 2.58 °C). Under climate change conditions, blue water is estimated to decrease by up to 16.89 and 21.4 mm under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, while green water is estimated to increase up to 19.14 and 20.22 mm, respectively. Under the LULC changes, blue water is projected to increase by up to 5.50 and 7.57 mm, while green water shows decreases of 4.05 and 7.80 mm for the LULC2035 and LULC2055 scenarios, respectively. Under the four combined LULC and climate change conditions (RCP4.5_2040s, RCP4.5_2060s, RCP8.5_2040s, and RCP8.5_2060s), blue water tends to decrease by 0.67, 7.47, 7.28, and 9.99 mm, while green water increases by 19.24, 20.8, 13.87, and 22.30 mm. The influence of climate variation on blue and green water resources is comparatively higher than that of the integrated impacts of climate and land-use changes. The results of this study offer a scientific reference for the water resources management and planning department responsible for scheduling water resource management plan in the GRB.

Impacts and uncertainties of climate change on streamflow of the Johor River Basin, Malaysia using a CMIP5 General Circulation Model ensemble

2014 ◽  
Vol 5 (4) ◽  
pp. 676-695 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mou Leong Tan ◽  
Darren L. Ficklin ◽  
Ab Latif Ibrahim ◽  
Zulkifli Yusop
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
River Basin ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
Swat Model ◽  
Circulation Model ◽  
Climate Projections ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Efficiency Coefficient ◽  
Monthly Streamflow ◽  
The Impact

The impact of climate change and uncertainty of climate projections from general circulation models (GCMs) from phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) on streamflow in the Johor River Basin, Malaysia was assessed. Eighteen GCMs were evaluated, and the six that adequately simulated historical climate were selected for an ensemble of GCMs under three Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs; 2.6 (low emissions), 4.5 (moderate emissions) and 8.5 (high emissions)) for three future time periods (2020s, 2050s and 2080s) as inputs into the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) hydrological model. We also quantified the uncertainties associated with GCM structure, greenhouse gas concentration pathways (RCP 2.6, 4.5 and 8.5), and prescribed increases of global temperature (1–6 °C) through streamflow changes. The SWAT model simulated historical monthly streamflow well, with a Nash–Sutcliffe efficiency coefficient of 0.66 for calibration and 0.62 for validation. Under RCPs 2.6, 4.5, and 8.5, the results indicate that annual precipitation changes of 1.01 to 8.88% and annual temperature of 0.60–3.21 °C will lead to a projected annual streamflow ranging from 0.91 to 12.95% compared to the historical period. The study indicates multiple climate change scenarios are important for a robust hydrological impact assessment.

scholarly journals Dynamics of soil organic carbon in the steppes of Russia and Kazakhstan under past and future climate and land use

2021 ◽  
Vol 21 (3) ◽  
Author(s):  
Susanne Rolinski ◽  
Alexander V. Prishchepov ◽  
Georg Guggenberger ◽  
Norbert Bischoff ◽  
Irina Kurganova ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Land Use ◽  
Organic Carbon ◽  
Land Use Change ◽  
Soil Organic Carbon ◽  
Arable Land ◽  
Future Climate ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Climate Scenarios ◽  
The Impact

AbstractChanges in land use and climate are the main drivers of change in soil organic matter contents. We investigated the impact of the largest policy-induced land conversion to arable land, the Virgin Lands Campaign (VLC), from 1954 to 1963, of the massive cropland abandonment after 1990 and of climate change on soil organic carbon (SOC) stocks in steppes of Russia and Kazakhstan. We simulated carbon budgets from the pre-VLC period (1900) until 2100 using a dynamic vegetation model to assess the impacts of observed land-use change as well as future climate and land-use change scenarios. The simulations suggest for the entire VLC region (266 million hectares) that the historic cropland expansion resulted in emissions of 1.6⋅ 1015 g (= 1.6 Pg) carbon between 1950 and 1965 compared to 0.6 Pg in a scenario without the expansion. From 1990 to 2100, climate change alone is projected to cause emissions of about 1.8 (± 1.1) Pg carbon. Hypothetical recultivation of the cropland that has been abandoned after the fall of the Soviet Union until 2050 may cause emissions of 3.5 (± 0.9) Pg carbon until 2100, whereas the abandonment of all cropland until 2050 would lead to sequestration of 1.8 (± 1.2) Pg carbon. For the climate scenarios based on SRES (Special Report on Emission Scenarios) emission pathways, SOC declined only moderately for constant land use but substantially with further cropland expansion. The variation of SOC in response to the climate scenarios was smaller than that in response to the land-use scenarios. This suggests that the effects of land-use change on SOC dynamics may become as relevant as those of future climate change in the Eurasian steppes.

scholarly journals Application of SWAT in Hydrological Simulation of Complex Mountainous River Basin (Part II: Climate Change Impact Assessment)

Water ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (11) ◽  
pp. 1548
Author(s):  
Suresh Marahatta ◽  
Deepak Aryal ◽  
Laxmi Prasad Devkota ◽  
Utsav Bhattarai ◽  
Dibesh Shrestha
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
River Basin ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Assessment Tool ◽  
Swat Model ◽  
Global Climate Models ◽  
Climate Data ◽  
The Future ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Mountainous River

This study aims at analysing the impact of climate change (CC) on the river hydrology of a complex mountainous river basin—the Budhigandaki River Basin (BRB)—using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) hydrological model that was calibrated and validated in Part I of this research. A relatively new approach of selecting global climate models (GCMs) for each of the two selected RCPs, 4.5 (stabilization scenario) and 8.5 (high emission scenario), representing four extreme cases (warm-wet, cold-wet, warm-dry, and cold-dry conditions), was applied. Future climate data was bias corrected using a quantile mapping method. The bias-corrected GCM data were forced into the SWAT model one at a time to simulate the future flows of BRB for three 30-year time windows: Immediate Future (2021–2050), Mid Future (2046–2075), and Far Future (2070–2099). The projected flows were compared with the corresponding monthly, seasonal, annual, and fractional differences of extreme flows of the simulated baseline period (1983–2012). The results showed that future long-term average annual flows are expected to increase in all climatic conditions for both RCPs compared to the baseline. The range of predicted changes in future monthly, seasonal, and annual flows shows high uncertainty. The comparative frequency analysis of the annual one-day-maximum and -minimum flows shows increased high flows and decreased low flows in the future. These results imply the necessity for design modifications in hydraulic structures as well as the preference of storage over run-of-river water resources development projects in the study basin from the perspective of climate resilience.

Impact of climate change on streamflow and water quality in the upper Dong Nai river basin, Vietnam

2018 ◽  
pp. 70-79 ◽  
Author(s):  
Le Viet Thang ◽  
Dao Nguyen Khoi ◽  
Ho Long Phi
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Water Quality ◽  
River Basin ◽  
Sediment Load ◽  
Swat Model ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Nutrient Load ◽  
Impact Of Climate Change ◽  
The Impact

In this study, we investigated the impact of climate change on streamflow and water quality (TSS, T-N, and T-P loads) in the upper Dong Nai River Basin using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) hydrological model. The calibration and validation results indicated that the SWAT model is a reasonable tool for simulating streamflow and water quality for this basin. Based on the well-calibrated SWAT model, the responses of streamflow, sediment load, and nutrient load to climate change were simulated. Climate change scenarios (RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5) were developed from five GCM simulations (CanESM2, CNRM-CM5, HadGEM2-AO, IPSL-CM5A-LR, and MPI-ESM-MR) using the delta change method. The results indicated that climate in the study area would become warmer and wetter in the future. Climate change leads to increases in streamflow, sediment load, T-N load, and T-P load. Besides that, the impacts of climate change would exacerbate serious problems related to water shortage in the dry season and soil erosion and degradation in the wet season. In addition, it is indicated that changes in sediment yield and nutrient load due to climate change are larger than the corresponding changes in streamflow.

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