On the different assessments of present velocity and acceleration in a tide gauge record characterized by a quasi-60-year periodic oscillation: comment to “Parker A., oscillations of sea level rise along the Atlantic coast of North America north of Cape Hatteras, natural hazards, in press, accepted manuscript”

This paper provides an Extreme Value Analysis (EVA) of the hourly water level record at Fort Denison dating back to 1915 to understand the statistical likelihood of the combination of high predicted tides and the more dynamic influences that can drive ocean water levels higher at the coast. The analysis is based on the Peaks-Over-Threshold (POT) method using a fitted Generalised Pareto Distribution (GPD) function to estimate extreme hourly heights above mean sea level. The analysis highlights the impact of the 1974 East Coast Low event and rarity of the associated measured water level above mean sea level at Sydney, with an estimated return period exceeding 1000 years. Extreme hourly predictions are integrated with future projections of sea level rise to provide estimates of relevant still water levels at 2050, 2070 and 2100 for a range of return periods (1 to 1000 years) for use in coastal zone management, design, and sea level rise adaptation planning along the NSW coastline. The analytical procedures described provide a step-by-step guide for practitioners on how to develop similar baseline information from any long tide gauge record and the associated limitations and key sensitivities that must be understood and appreciated in applying EVA.

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A foraminiferal proxy record of 20th century sea-level rise in the Manukau Harbour, New Zealand

Marine and Freshwater Research ◽

10.1071/mf11208 ◽

2012 ◽

Vol 63 (4) ◽

pp. 370 ◽

Cited By ~ 10

Author(s):

Hugh R. Grenfell ◽

Bruce W. Hayward ◽

Ritsuo Nomura ◽

Ashwaq T. Sabaa

Keyword(s):

New Zealand ◽

Salt Marsh ◽

Sea Level Rise ◽

Sea Level ◽

20Th Century ◽

Tide Gauge ◽

Sediment Accumulation ◽

Proxy Record ◽

Tide Gauge Record ◽

Tidal Salt Marsh

The present study aimed to extract a sea-level history from northern New Zealand salt-marsh sediments using a foraminiferal proxy, and to extend beyond the longest nearby tide-gauge record. Transects through high-tidal salt marsh at Puhinui, Manukau Harbour, Auckland, New Zealand, indicate a zonation of dominant foraminifera in the following order (with increasing elevation): Ammonia spp.–Elphidium excavatum, Ammotium fragile, Miliammina fusca, Haplophragmoides wilberti–Trochammina inflata, Trochamminita salsa–Miliammina obliqua. The transect sample faunas are used as a training set to generate a transfer function for estimating past tidal elevations in two short cores nearby. Heavy metal, 210Pb and 137Cs isotope analyses provide age models that indicate 35 cm of sediment accumulation since ~1890 AD. The first proxy-based 20th century rates of sea-level rise from New Zealand’s North Island at 0.28 ± 0.05 cm year–1 and 0.33 ± 0.07 cm year–1 are estimated. These are faster than the nearby Auckland tide gauge for the same interval (0.17 ± 0.1 cm year–1), but comparable to a similar proxy record from southern New Zealand (0.28 ± 0.05 cm year–1) and to satellite-based observations of global sea-level rise since 1993 (0.31 ± 0.07 cm year–1).

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The application of foraminifera to reconstruct the rate of 20th century sea level rise, Morbihan Golfe, Brittany, France

Quaternary Research ◽

10.1016/j.yqres.2010.07.017 ◽

2011 ◽

Vol 75 (1) ◽

pp. 24-35 ◽

Cited By ~ 15

Author(s):

Veronica Rossi ◽

Benjamin P. Horton ◽

D. Reide Corbett ◽

Eduardo Leorri ◽

Lucia Perez-Belmonte ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Salt Marsh ◽

Transfer Function ◽

Sea Level Rise ◽

Sea Level ◽

20Th Century ◽

Salt Marshes ◽

Tide Gauge ◽

Strong Relationship ◽

Tide Gauge Record ◽

Foraminiferal Distribution

AbstractForaminiferal assemblages preserved within salt-marsh sediment can provide an accurate and precise means to reconstruct relative sea level due to a strong relationship with elevation, which can be quantified using a transfer function. We collected a set of surface samples from two salt marshes in the Morbihan Golfe, France to determine foraminiferal distribution patterns. Dominant taxa included Jadammina macrescens, Trochammina inflata, Haplophragmoides spp. and Miliammina fusca. We developed a foraminifera-based transfer function using a modern training set of 36 samples and 23 species. The strong relationship between observed and predicted values (r2jack = 0.7) indicated that foraminiferal distribution is primarily controlled by elevation with respect to the tidal frame and precise reconstructions of former sea level are possible (RMSEPjack = 0.07 m). The application of the transfer function to a short salt-marsh core (0.32 m) allowed the reconstruction of former sea levels, which were placed in a chronological framework using short-lived radionuclides (210Pb and 137Cs). The agreement between the foraminifera-based sea level curve and the Brest tide-gauge record confirms the reliability of transfer function estimates and the validity of this methodology to extend sea level reconstructions back into the pre-instrumental period. Both instrumental and microfossil records suggest an acceleration of sea level rise during the 20th century.

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Variability of Winter Storminess in the Eastern United States during the Twentieth Century from Tide Gauges

Journal of Climate ◽

10.1175/jcli-d-12-00561.1 ◽

2013 ◽

Vol 26 (23) ◽

pp. 9713-9726 ◽

Cited By ~ 25

Author(s):

Philip R. Thompson ◽

Gary T. Mitchum ◽

Cedric Vonesch ◽

Jianke Li

Keyword(s):

United States ◽

Twentieth Century ◽

North America ◽

Sea Level ◽

Large Scale ◽

Tide Gauge ◽

Storm Track ◽

Eastern United States ◽

Tide Gauges ◽

Tide Gauge Record

Interannual to multidecadal variability of winter storminess in the eastern United States was studied using water level measurements from coastal tide gauges. The proximity to the coast of the primary winter storm track in the region allows the use of tide gauges to study temporal modulations in the frequency of these storms. Storms were identified in high-passed, detided sea level anomalies in 20 gauges from all coasts of North America to assess variability in winter storminess along particular storm tracks. The primary result is a significant multidecadal increase in the number of storms affecting the southeastern United States from the early to late twentieth century. The authors propose that this change is due to an increased tendency for the jet stream to meander south over the eastern United States since the 1950s. This mechanism is supported by long-term changes in the large-scale sea level pressure pattern over North America. The nature of the multidecadal change in storm frequency is unclear, because limited tide gauge record lengths prevent distinguishing between a trend and an oscillation.

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Hotspot of accelerated sea-level rise on the Atlantic coast of North America

Nature Climate Change ◽

10.1038/nclimate1597 ◽

2012 ◽

Vol 2 (12) ◽

pp. 884-888 ◽

Cited By ~ 401

Author(s):

Asbury H. Sallenger ◽

Kara S. Doran ◽

Peter A. Howd

Keyword(s):

North America ◽

Sea Level Rise ◽

Sea Level ◽

Atlantic Coast

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The ambiguous sea level rise at Brest’s 212 yearlong record elucidated

Journal of Geodetic Science ◽

10.1515/jogs-2020-0124 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 11 (1) ◽

pp. 95-101

Author(s):

H. Bâki İz ◽

C.K. Shum

Keyword(s):

Phase I ◽

Sea Level ◽

Tide Gauge ◽

Atlantic Coast ◽

The Other ◽

Two Phase ◽

Tide Gauge Record ◽

Uniform Acceleration ◽

Solar Origin ◽

Trend Model

Abstract The tide gauge record at Brest, France, along Eastern part of Atlantic coast is one of the longest records in Europe spanning 212 years (1807–2019). Analyzing these records has important ramifications in assessing anthropogenic impact of climate change at local and regional scales during this period. All the previous studies that analyzed Brest’s tide gauge record have used vaguely defined quadratics models and did not incorporate the effect of sea level variations at various frequencies, which confounded the presence or absence of a plausible uniform acceleration. Here, we entertained two competing kinematic models; one with a uniform acceleration representing 212 years of monthly averaged tide gauge data, the other is a two-phase trend model (Phase I is 93 years long and Phase II is 119 years long). Both models include statistically significant (α = 0.05) common periodic effects, and sub and super harmonics of luni-solar origin for representing monthly averaged sea level anomalies observed at Brest. The least squares statistics for both models’ solutions cannot distinguish one model over the other, like earlier studies. However, the assessment of Phase I segment of the records disclosed the absence of a statistically significant trend and a uniform acceleration during this period. This outcome eliminates conclusively the occurrence of a uniform acceleration during the entire 212-year data span of the tide gauge record at Brest, favoring the two-phase trend model as a sound alternative.

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Sea Level Rise and Land Subsidence Contributions to the Signals from the Tide Gauges of China

Nonlinear Engineering ◽

10.1515/nleng-2015-0033 ◽

2016 ◽

Vol 5 (2) ◽

Cited By ~ 2

Author(s):

Albert Parker

Keyword(s):

Sea Level Rise ◽

Linear Model ◽

Sea Level ◽

Land Subsidence ◽

Tide Gauge ◽

Tide Gauges ◽

Tide Gauge Records ◽

Tide Gauge Record ◽

Term Trend ◽

Non Linear

AbstractThe tide gauges measure the local oscillations of the sea level vs. the tide gauge instrument. The tide gauge instrument is generally subjected to the general subsidence or uplift of the nearby inland, plus some additional subsidence for land compaction and other localised phenomena. The paper proposes a non-linear model of the relative sea level oscillations including a long term trend for the absolute sea level rise, another term for the subsidence of the instrument, and finally a sinusoidal approximation for the cyclic oscillations of periodicities up to decades. This non-linear model is applied to the tide gauges of China. The paper shows that the limited information available for China does not permit to infer any proper trend for the relative rates of rise, as the tide gauge records are all short or incomplete and the vertical movement of the tide gauge instruments is unassessed. The only tide gauge record of sufficient length that may be assembled for China is obtained by combining the North Point and Quarry Bay tide gauges in Hong Kong (NPQB). This NQPB composite tide gauge record is shown to have similarities with the tide gauge records of Sydney, equally in the West pacific, and San Diego, in the east Pacific, oscillating about the longer term trend mostly determined by the local subsidence. As it is very well known that China generally suffers of land subsidence, and the tide gauge installations may suffer of additional subsidence vs. the inland, it may be concluded from the analysis of the other worldwide tide gauges that the sea levels of China are very likely rising about the same amount of the subsidence of the tide gauges, with the sea level acceleration component still negligible.

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