scholarly journals Seeking Alpha in the Housing Market

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Michael LaCour-Little ◽  
Jing Yang
Keyword(s):  
Housing Market ◽  
Price Index ◽  
Reality Television ◽  
House Price ◽  
Housing Markets ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Television Shows ◽  
Acquisition Strategies ◽  
Time Periods ◽  
Nationally Representative

AbstractWe examine short term trades in the housing market over the period 2000–2013 using nationally representative data across multiple U.S. housing markets. Such trades, often characterized as “house flipping”, have gained currency in recent years with reality television shows depicting success and failure. We find evidence of returns in excess of market house price index growth (which we call alpha) during certain time periods with results that also vary across distressed versus non-distressed acquisition strategies.

scholarly journals Speculative housing markets and rent control: insights from nonlinear economic dynamics

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Noemi Schmitt ◽  
Frank Westerhoff
Keyword(s):  
Housing Market ◽  
Housing Stock ◽  
House Price ◽  
Housing Markets ◽  
Market Model ◽  
Market Dynamics ◽  
Rent Control ◽  
Forecasting Accuracy ◽  
Expectation Formation ◽  
Rent Level

AbstractWe propose a novel housing market model to explore the effectiveness of rent control. Our model reveals that the expectation formation and learning behavior of boundedly rational homebuyers, switching between extrapolative and regressive expectation rules subject to their past forecasting accuracy, may create endogenous housing market dynamics. We show that policymakers may use rent control to reduce the rent level, although such policies may have undesirable effects on the house price and the housing stock. However, we are also able to prove that well-designed rent control may help policymakers to stabilize housing market dynamics, even without creating housing market distortions.

Housing market networks in China's major cities: a conditional causality approach

2021 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Lu Yang ◽  
Nannan Yuan ◽  
Shichao Hu
Keyword(s):  
Housing Market ◽  
Granger Causality ◽  
House Price ◽  
Housing Markets ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Scale Free ◽  
Second Tier ◽  
The Difference ◽  
Secondary Housing Market ◽  
Market Networks

PurposeTo explore the state of this conditional Granger causality when other cities are not factors, we investigate housing market networks in China's major cities by using a combination of conditional Granger causality and network analysis.Design/methodology/approachAlthough housing market networks have been well discussed for different countries, the question of housing market networks in China's major cities based on the conditional causality perspective has yet to be answered.FindingsWe discover that second-tier cities are more influential than first-tier cities. Although the connectivity of the primary housing market is more complex than the diversified connectivity observed in the secondary housing market, both markets are scale-free networks that exhibit high stability. Moreover, we reveal that geographic conditions and economic development jointly determine the housing market's modular hierarchical structure. Our results provide meaningful information for both Chinese policymakers and investors.Originality/valueBy excluding the influence of other cities, our conditional Granger causality identifies the true casual relation between cities' housing markets. Moreover, it is the first paper to consider the primary housing market and secondary housing market separately. Specifically, Chinese prefer new house rather than second-hand house from both speculative and self-housing. Generally speaking, the new house price is lower than the second-hand house price since the new house is off-plan property. Therefore, understanding the difference between primary and secondary housing markets will provide useful information for both policymakers and speculators.

A look into German housing markets: A bubble call?

2018 ◽  
Vol 21 (4) ◽  
pp. 289-301
Author(s):  
Jan R. Kim ◽  
Gieyoung Lim
Keyword(s):  
Housing Market ◽  
House Prices ◽  
House Price ◽  
Housing Markets ◽  
Present Value ◽  
Present Value Model ◽  
Price Bubbles ◽  
Steep Rise ◽  
Value Model ◽  
German Housing Market

The steep rise in German house prices in recent years raises the question of whether a speculative bubble has already emerged. Using a modified present-value model, we estimate the size of speculative house price bubbles in the German housing market. We do not find evidence for positive bubble accumulation in recent years, and interpret the current bullish run as reflecting the correction of house prices that have been undervalued for more than 10 years. With house prices close to their fair values as of 2018:Q1, our answer to the question is, ‘Not yet, but it is likely soon’.

scholarly journals Are House Prices Driven by Capital Flows? Evidence from Singapore

2016 ◽  
Vol 07 (01) ◽  
pp. 1650006 ◽  
Author(s):  
Hwee Kwan Chow ◽  
Taojun Xie
Keyword(s):  
Capital Flows ◽  
Price Index ◽  
House Prices ◽  
House Price ◽  
Capital Inflows ◽  
Residential Property ◽  
Foreign Direct Investments ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Property Price ◽  
The Impact

This paper investigates whether real house price appreciations can be attributed to the surge in real capital inflows into Singapore. We proxy capital flows by using the amount of Foreign Direct Investments (FDI) to real estate capturing the foreign purchases of property in Singapore which we deflate by the private residential property price index. Notwithstanding the absence of a cointegrating relationship, our results support the hypothesis that lagged short term fluctuations in capital inflows are positively associated with the growth rates of house prices over the last decade. We also provide evidence that macroprudential measures implemented by Singapore reduced the impact of capital inflows on house price appreciation by more than half, suggesting the effectiveness of such market cooling measures in weakening the credit growth channel.

scholarly journals Club convergence of house prices: Evidence from China’s ten key cities

2015 ◽  
Vol 29 (24) ◽  
pp. 1550181 ◽  
Author(s):  
Hao Meng ◽  
Wen-Jie Xie ◽  
Wei-Xing Zhou
Keyword(s):  
Housing Market ◽  
House Prices ◽  
House Price ◽  
Economic Recession ◽  
Housing Markets ◽  
Extensive Study ◽  
Ripple Effect ◽  
Chinese Stock Market ◽  
Price Growth ◽  
Chinese Housing Market

The latest global financial tsunami and its follow-up global economic recession has uncovered the crucial impact of housing markets on financial and economic systems. The Chinese stock market experienced a marked fall during the global financial tsunami and China’s economy has also slowed down by about 2%–3% when measured in GDP. Nevertheless, the housing markets in diverse Chinese cities seemed to continue the almost nonstop mania for more than 10 years. However, the structure and dynamics of the Chinese housing market are less studied. Here, we perform an extensive study of the Chinese housing market by analyzing 10 representative key cities based on both linear and nonlinear econophysical and econometric methods. We identify a common collective driving force which accounts for 96.5% of the house price growth, indicating very high systemic risk in the Chinese housing market. The 10 key cities can be categorized into clubs and the house prices of the cities in the same club exhibit an evident convergence. These findings from different methods are basically consistent with each other. The identified city clubs are also consistent with the conventional classification of city tiers. The house prices of the first-tier cities grow the fastest and those of the third- and fourth-tier cities rise the slowest, which illustrates the possible presence of a ripple effect in the diffusion of house prices among different cities.

Consumer Confidence Index in Vietnam: Scale Development and Compilation Methods

2019 ◽  
pp. 107-124
Author(s):  
Ha Hoang Thi Thanh ◽  
Bich Tran Thi
Keyword(s):  
Price Index ◽  
Consumer Price Index ◽  
Economic Indicator ◽  
Consumer Confidence ◽  
Specific Context ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Confidence Index ◽  
Nationally Representative ◽  
United Nations Statistics Division ◽  
Country Specific

A consumer confidence index (CCI) is an important economic indicator which is used to adjust the forecasting of gross domestic product (GDP) and consumer price index (CPI) in the shortterm. Although there exists standard guidelines from the United Nations Statistics Division and European Commission, international experience shows the scale that measures a CCI and the methods of calculating a CCI need to be adapted to the country specific context. Using its own data from the nationally representative survey and factor analysis methods, this paper constructs a scale to measure consumer confidence for Vietnam. The paper, then, computes a CCI and proposes the most appropriate method corresponding to the Vietnamese setting. Validation methods from the paper show that the Vietnamese CCI calculated in the paper reflects approximately the economic picture of the whole country as well as six regions of Vietnam, ensuring the validity of using this index to adjust short-term GDP and CPI forecasts.

Challenging the Discourse around the Impacts of Airbnb through Suburbs Not Cities: Lessons from Australia and COVID-19

2021 ◽  
Vol 8 (1) ◽  
pp. 141-149
Author(s):  
Caitlin Buckle ◽  
◽  
Peter Phibbs ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Housing Market ◽  
Natural Experiment ◽  
Housing Markets ◽  
Local Communities ◽  
Short Term ◽  
City Governments ◽  
Rental Markets ◽  
The Impact

Supporters of short-term rental (STR) platforms state that STRs represent a small fraction of the housing market of major cities and therefore have little impact on rents. However, there is emerging evidence that suggests that STRs have highly localised impacts. In this article, we use the natural experiment of the pause in tourism caused by the COVID-19 pandemic to highlight the impact of a decrease in STR listings on rental markets in the case study city of Hobart, Australia. We find that rental affordability has improved in Hobart’s STR-dense suburbs with the increased vacancies from the underutilised STR properties. These results provide evidence of the impact of STRs on local housing markets when analysed on a finer scale than the whole-of-city approach. The focus on local housing markets helps local communities and city governments build an argument for the impact of STRs on tight housing markets.

scholarly journals A hedonic house price index in continuous time

2016 ◽  
Vol 9 (4) ◽  
pp. 648-670 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sofie R. Waltl
Keyword(s):  
Price Index ◽  
House Price ◽  
Additive Model ◽  
Housing Markets ◽  
Smooth Functions ◽  
House Price Index ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Monitoring Tools ◽  
Continuous Index ◽  
Sydney Australia

Purpose This paper aims to develop a methodology to accurately and timely measure movements in housing markets by constructing a continuously estimated house price index. Design/methodology/approach The continuous index, which is extracted from an additive model that includes the temporal and the locational effects as smooth functions, can be interpreted as an extension of the classical hedonic time-dummy method. The methodology is applied to housing sales from Sydney, Australia, between 2001 and 2011, and compared to three types of discrete indexes. Findings Discrete indexes turn out to approach the continuously estimated index with decreasing period lengths but eventually become wiggly and unreliable because of fewer observations per period. The continuous index, in contrast, is stable, has favourable robustness properties and is more objective in several ways. Originality/value The resulting index tracks movements in the housing market precisely and in “real-time” and is hence suited for monitoring and assessing housing markets. Because turbulence in housing markets is often a harbinger of financial crises, such monitoring tools support policymakers and investors in tailoring their decisions and reactions. Additionally, the index can be evaluated arbitrarily frequently and therefore is well suited for use in property derivatives.

Younger Canadians will seek new housing markets

2018 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Housing Market ◽  
Consumer Price Index ◽  
Housing Markets ◽  
Real Estate Investment ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Chinese Investment ◽  
Mortgage Interest ◽  
Home Values ◽  
Interest Payments

Subject Canada's housing market. Significance Data released on December 19 showed that consumer price index (CPI) inflation slowed to 1.7% year-on-year in November, the slowest since January 2018. However, mortgage interest payments were one source of upward pressure. Impacts Foreign real estate investment will move from Vancouver and Toronto to Montreal and Ottawa, raising home values. Home prices in suburban Toronto and Vancouver will rise as urbanites seek cheaper alternatives to downtown housing. Canada-China tensions could reduce Chinese investment in Canada’s housing market in the short term.

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