An Analytical Risk Analysis Method for Reservoir Flood Control Operation Considering Forecast Information

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yawei Ning ◽  
Wei Ding ◽  
Guohua Liang ◽  
Bin He ◽  
Huicheng Zhou
Keyword(s):  
Risk Analysis ◽  
Flood Control ◽  
Analysis Method ◽  
Control Operation ◽  
Flood Control Operation ◽  
Reservoir Flood Control Operation

scholarly journals Risk Assessment and Decision-Making Based on Mean-CVaR-Entropy for Flood Control Operation of Large Scale Reservoirs

Water ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 11 (4) ◽  
pp. 649 ◽  
Author(s):  
Quansen Wang ◽  
Jianzhong Zhou ◽  
Kangdi Huang ◽  
Ling Dai ◽  
Gang Zha ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Decision Making ◽  
Flood Control ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Yangtze River Basin ◽  
Mean Value ◽  
Operation System ◽  
Control Operation ◽  
Flood Control Operation ◽  
Reservoir Flood Control Operation

The risk inevitably exists in the process of flood control operation and decision-making of reservoir group, due to the hydrologic and hydraulic uncertain factors. In this study different stochastic simulation methods were applied to simulate these uncertainties in multi-reservoir flood control operation, and the risk caused by different uncertainties was evaluated from the mean value, extreme value and discrete degree of reservoir occupied storage capacity under uncertain conditions. In order to solve the conflict between risk assessment indexes and evaluate the comprehensive risk of different reservoirs in flood control operation schemes, the subjective weight and objective weight were used to construct the comprehensive risk assessment index, and the improved Mahalanobis distance TOPSIS method was used to select the optimal flood control operation scheme. The proposed method was applied to the flood control operation system in the mainstream and its tributaries of upper reaches of the Yangtze River basin, and 14 cascade reservoirs were selected as a case study. The results indicate that proposed method can evaluate the risk of multi-reservoir flood control operation from all perspectives and provide a new method for multi-criteria decision-making of reservoir flood control operation, and it breaks the limitation of the traditional risk analysis method which only evaluated by risk rate and cannot evaluate the risk of the multi-reservoir flood control operation system.

scholarly journals A multi-criteria decision-making model dealing with correlation among criteria for reservoir flood control operation

2015 ◽  
Vol 18 (3) ◽  
pp. 531-543 ◽  
Author(s):  
Feilin Zhu ◽  
Ping-an Zhong ◽  
Bin Xu ◽  
Ye-nan Wu ◽  
Yu Zhang
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Flood Control ◽  
Multi Criteria Decision Making ◽  
Decision Matrix ◽  
Control Operation ◽  
Criterion System ◽  
Proposed Model ◽  
Flood Control Operation ◽  
Reservoir Flood Control Operation ◽  
Ranking Order

Flood control operation in a multi-reservoir system is a multi-criteria decision-making (MCDM) problem, in which the considered criteria are often correlated with each other. In this paper, we propose an MCDM model for reservoir flood control operation to deal with correlation among criteria. Considering the flood control safety of reservoirs and downstream protected regions, we establish the hierarchical structure of the criterion system. We use the principal component analysis method to eliminate the correlation, and transform the original criterion system into an independent comprehensive criterion system. The comprehensive decision matrix coupled with the weight vector obtained by the improved entropy weight method serves as the input to TOPSIS method, fuzzy optimum method, and fuzzy matter-element method, by which we determine the ranking order of the alternatives. We apply the proposed model to a cascade system of reservoirs at the Daduhe River basin in China. The results show that the dimensionality of the criterion system is reduced and the correlation among criteria is eliminated simultaneously, and the ranking order of the alternatives is reasonable. The proposed model provides an effective way to deal with correlation among criteria, and can be extended to wider applications in many other MCDM problems.

scholarly journals Selection of criteria for multi-criteria decision making of reservoir flood control operation

2017 ◽  
Vol 19 (4) ◽  
pp. 558-571 ◽  
Author(s):  
Feilin Zhu ◽  
Ping-an Zhong ◽  
Yimeng Sun ◽  
Bin Xu
Keyword(s):  
Neural Network ◽  
Bp Neural Network ◽  
Flood Control ◽  
Relative Importance ◽  
Contribution Ratio ◽  
Control Operation ◽  
Relative Contribution ◽  
Flood Control Operation ◽  
Reservoir Flood Control Operation ◽  
Selection Of

In reservoir flood control operation, selection of criteria is an important part of the multi-criteria decision making (MCDM) procedure. This paper proposes a method to select criteria for MCDM of reservoir flood control operation based on the back-propagation (BP) neural network. According to the concept of ideal and anti-ideal points, we propose a method to generate training samples of the BP neural network via stochastic simulation. The topological structure of a three-layer BP neural network used for criteria selection is established. The relative importance of criteria is derived via the learned connection weights of a trained BP neural network, and its calculation method is proposed. The sensitivity curve method is employed to conduct sensitivity analysis, and the relative contribution ratio is defined to quantify the relative sensitivity strength of each criterion. We present the principle and threshold value of criteria selection based on the comprehensive discrimination index defined by the combination of the relative importance and relative contribution ratio. The Pubugou reservoir is selected as the case study. The results show that the proposed method can provide an effective tool for decision makers to select criteria before MCDM modeling of reservoir flood control operation.

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