Seismic hazard in southern Calabria (Italy) based on the analysis of a synthetic earthquake catalog

2018 ◽  
Vol 66 (5) ◽  
pp. 931-943 ◽  
Author(s):  
Rodolfo Console ◽  
Massimo Chiappini ◽  
Liliana Minelli ◽  
Fabio Speranza ◽  
Roberto Carluccio ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Seismic Hazard ◽  
Earthquake Catalog ◽  
Synthetic Earthquake Catalog

Application of the bootstrap method to quantify uncertainty in seismic hazard estimates

1992 ◽  
Vol 82 (1) ◽  
pp. 104-119
Author(s):  
Michéle Lamarre ◽  
Brent Townshend ◽  
Haresh C. Shah
Keyword(s):  
Confidence Interval ◽  
Seismic Hazard ◽  
Statistical Method ◽  
Bootstrap Method ◽  
Earthquake Magnitude ◽  
Earthquake Catalog ◽  
Uncertainty Measure ◽  
Attenuation Models ◽  
The Bootstrap Method

Abstract This paper describes a methodology to assess the uncertainty in seismic hazard estimates at particular sites. A variant of the bootstrap statistical method is used to combine the uncertainty due to earthquake catalog incompleteness, earthquake magnitude, and recurrence and attenuation models used. The uncertainty measure is provided in the form of a confidence interval. Comparisons of this method applied to various sites in California with previous studies are used to confirm the validity of the method.

Simulation-Based Seismic Hazard Assessment Using Monte-Carlo Earthquake Catalogs: Application to CyberShake

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sarah Azar ◽  
Mayssa Dabaghi
Keyword(s):  
Monte Carlo ◽  
Seismic Hazard ◽  
Ground Motion ◽  
Seismic Hazard Assessment ◽  
Computational Time ◽  
Earthquake Catalog ◽  
Earthquake Catalogs ◽  
Earthquake Scenarios ◽  
Simulation Based ◽  
Hazard Curves

ABSTRACT The use of numerical simulations in probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA) has achieved a promising level of reliability in recent years. One example is the CyberShake project, which incorporates physics-based 3D ground-motion simulations within seismic hazard calculations. Nonetheless, considerable computational time and resources are required due to the significant processing requirements imposed by source-based models on one hand, and the large number of seismic sources and possible rupture variations on the other. This article proposes to use a less computationally demanding simulation-based PSHA framework for CyberShake. The framework can accurately represent the seismic hazard at a site, by only considering a subset of all the possible earthquake scenarios, based on a Monte-Carlo simulation procedure that generates earthquake catalogs having a specified duration. In this case, ground motions need only be simulated for the scenarios selected in the earthquake catalog, and hazard calculations are limited to this subset of scenarios. To validate the method and evaluate its accuracy in the CyberShake platform, the proposed framework is applied to three sites in southern California, and hazard calculations are performed for earthquake catalogs with different lengths. The resulting hazard curves are then benchmarked against those obtained by considering the entire set of earthquake scenarios and simulations, as done in CyberShake. Both approaches yield similar estimates of the hazard curves for elastic pseudospectral accelerations and inelastic demands, with errors that depend on the length of the Monte-Carlo catalog. With 200,000 yr catalogs, the errors are consistently smaller than 5% at the 2% probability of exceedance in 50 yr hazard level, using only ∼3% of the entire set of simulations. Both approaches also produce similar disaggregation patterns. The results demonstrate the potential of the proposed approach in a simulation-based PSHA platform like CyberShake and as a ground-motion selection tool for seismic demand analyses.

scholarly journals A declustered earthquake catalog for the Iranian Plateau

2015 ◽  
Vol 57 (6) ◽  
Author(s):  
Seyed Hasan Mousavi-Bafrouei ◽  
Noorbakhsh Mirzaei ◽  
Elham Shabani
Keyword(s):  
Seismic Hazard ◽  
Hazard Analysis ◽  
Time Windows ◽  
Recurrence Time ◽  
Earthquake Catalog ◽  
Magnitude Of Completeness ◽  
Iranian Plateau ◽  
Seismic Stations ◽  
International Agencies ◽  
Seismotectonic Province

A unified catalog of earthquakes in Iran and adjacent regions (the area bounded in 22<sup>º</sup>-42<sup>º</sup>N and 42<sup>º</sup>-66<sup>º</sup>E) covering the period of 4<sup>th</sup> century B.C. through 2012 with M<sub>w</sub>≥4 is provided. The catalog includes all events for which magnitude have been determined by international agencies and most reliable individual sources. Since the recurrence time of maximum credible earthquake cannot be directly estimated from the m<sub>b</sub>, empirical formulae are established to convert m<sub>b</sub> to M<sub>s</sub>, m<sub>b</sub> to M<sub>w</sub> and M<sub>s</sub> to M<sub>w</sub> for each major seismotectonic province separately. The unified catalog is declustered using conjugated distance-time windows. In order to estimate completeness thresholds, magnitude-time (M-T) diagram and Stepp’s method are applied on the declustered catalog for each seismotectonic province. The magnitude of completeness (M<sub>c</sub>) decreases with development of local and regional seismic stations. The results of present study are particularly important in seismic hazard analysis in Iran.

A Monte Carlo approach to seismic hazard analysis

1999 ◽  
Vol 89 (4) ◽  
pp. 854-866 ◽  
Author(s):  
John E. Ebel ◽  
Alan L. Kafka
Keyword(s):  
Monte Carlo ◽  
Seismic Hazard ◽  
Ground Motion ◽  
Epicentral Distance ◽  
Ground Motions ◽  
Source Parameters ◽  
Parametric Models ◽  
Earthquake Catalog ◽  
Attenuation Relations ◽  
Ground Motion Attenuation

Abstract We have developed a Monte Carlo methodology for the estimation of seismic hazard at a site or across an area. This method uses a multitudinous resampling of an earthquake catalog, perhaps supplemented by parametric models, to construct synthetic earthquake catalogs and then to find earthquake ground motions from which the hazard values are found. Large earthquakes extrapolated from a Gutenberg-Richter recurrence relation and characteristic earthquakes can be included in the analysis. For the ground motion attenuation with distance, the method can use either a set of observed ground motion observations from which estimates are randomly selected, a table of ground motion values as a function of epicentral distance and magnitude, or a parametric ground motion attenuation relation. The method has been tested for sites in New England using an earthquake catalog for the northeastern United States and southeastern Canada, and it yields reasonable ground motions at standard seismic hazard values. This is true both when published ground motion attenuation relations and when a dataset of observed peak acceleration observations are used to compute the ground motion attenuation with distance. The hazard values depend to some extent on the duration of the synthetic catalog and the specific ground motion attenuation used, and the uncertainty in the ground motions increases with decreasing hazard probability. The program gives peak accelerations that are comparable to those of the 1996 U.S. national seismic hazard maps. The method can be adapted to compute seismic hazard for cases where there are temporal or spatial variations in earthquake occurrence rates or source parameters.

scholarly journals Analysis the 1978–2008 crustal and sub-crustal earthquake catalog of Vrancea region

2012 ◽  
Vol 12 (5) ◽  
pp. 1321-1325 ◽  
Author(s):  
L. Telesca ◽  
V. Alcaz ◽  
I. Sandu
Keyword(s):  
Seismic Hazard ◽  
Hazard Assessment ◽  
Seismic Hazard Assessment ◽  
Earthquake Catalog ◽  
B Values ◽  
Crustal Earthquake ◽  
Quarry Blast ◽  
Vrancea Region ◽  
Completeness Magnitude

Abstract. The crustal and sub-crustal seismicity that occurred in the Vrancea area from 1978 to 2008 is investigated. Due to quarry blast contamination, the analysis of the crustal seismicity was restricted to events that occurred between 20 km and 60 km, considering sub-crustal events as all those that occurred at depths larger than 60 km. The completeness magnitude was estimated between 2.3 and 2.5 for the crustal seismicity and between 2.9 and 3.1 for the sub-crustal one. The Gutenberg-Richter b-values show clear differences between crustal and sub-crustal seismicity, with values around 0.9 and 1.3–1.4, respectively. The analysis performed in this study represents a preliminary issue for the seismic hazard assessment of surrounding regions like Moldova, for which the earthquakes generated in Vrancea represent an important threat.

scholarly journals An updated and unified earthquake catalog from 1787 to 2018 for seismic hazard assessment studies in Mexico

2019 ◽  
Vol 6 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Rashad Sawires ◽  
Miguel A. Santoyo ◽  
José A. Peláez ◽  
Raúl Daniel Corona Fernández
Keyword(s):  
Seismic Hazard ◽  
Hazard Assessment ◽  
Seismic Hazard Assessment ◽  
Large Earthquake ◽  
Seismic Source ◽  
Earthquake Catalog ◽  
Magnitude Conversion ◽  
Seismic Source Models ◽  
Source Models ◽  
Definition Of

Abstract Here we present a new updated and unified Poissonian earthquake catalog for Mexico. The details about the catalog compilation, the removal of duplicate events, unifying the magnitude scales, removal of dependent events through the declustering process and its completeness analysis are presented. Earthquake and focal mechanism data have been compiled from various local, regional and international sources. Large earthquake events (MW ≥ 6.5) have been carefully revised for their epicentral locations and magnitudes from trusted publications. Different magnitude-conversion relationships, compatible with available local and regional ones, has been established to obtain unified moment magnitude estimates for the whole catalog. Completeness periods for the declustered catalog were estimated for the definition of appropriate seismic source models for the whole territory. The final unified Poissonian earthquake catalog spans from 1787 to 2018, covering a spatial extent of 13° to 33°N and 91° to 117°W. This catalog is compatible with other published catalogs providing basis for new analysis related to seismicity, seismotectonics and seismic hazard assessment in Mexico.

Effect of Earthquake Catalog Declustering on Seismic Hazard Assessment

2019 ◽  
Vol 55 (1) ◽  
pp. 59-69
Author(s):  
N. A. Galina ◽  
V. V. Bykova ◽  
R. N. Vakarchuk ◽  
R. E. Tatevosian
Keyword(s):  
Seismic Hazard ◽  
Hazard Assessment ◽  
Seismic Hazard Assessment ◽  
Earthquake Catalog

Impact of using updated seismic information on seismic hazard in western Canada

2010 ◽  
Vol 37 (4) ◽  
pp. 562-575 ◽  
Author(s):  
K. Goda ◽  
H. P. Hong ◽  
G. M. Atkinson
Keyword(s):  
Seismic Hazard ◽  
Recurrence Relations ◽  
Hazard Model ◽  
Sensitivity Analyses ◽  
Western Canada ◽  
Earthquake Catalog ◽  
Uniform Hazard Spectra ◽  
New Information ◽  
Proposed Model ◽  
The Impact

This study provides a preliminary assessment of the impact of new seismological information on the existing seismic hazard model, as implemented in the 2005 National building code of Canada (NBCC); this seismic hazard model was actually developed in the early 1990s, and thus there is significant new information available in the literature since then. A reassessment of seismic hazard is carried out by updating magnitude-recurrence relations based on the earthquake catalog up to the end of 2006, including conversion of all earthquake magnitudes to a homogenous moment magnitude scale. The recent ground-motion prediction equations, which update the knowledge base used in the 2005 NBCC, are also used. Focusing on Vancouver and Victoria, sensitivity analyses are carried out to investigate both individual and combined impacts of these updates on the uniform hazard spectra. The proposed model can be used as a guide to the direction in which future seismic hazard models for western Canada may move.

Seismic Hazard Estimation in East China Offshore Areas

2013 ◽  
Vol 690-693 ◽  
pp. 1158-1167
Author(s):  
Li Fang Zhang ◽  
Yan Ju Peng ◽  
Zhen Ming Wang
Keyword(s):  
Seismic Hazard ◽  
Seismic Activity ◽  
Hazard Analysis ◽  
Seismic Hazard Analysis ◽  
East China ◽  
Earthquake Catalog ◽  
Ground Acceleration ◽  
Study Region ◽  
Seismicity Model ◽  
Seismic Hazard Estimation

In this study, we chose East China offshore areas as study region(N25°~41°，E117°~126°).According to the tectonic environments and characteristics of earthquake the seismotectonic units were established, taking Gaussian spatially smoothing only based on the input earthquake catalog, and fault-rupture-oriented elliptical smoothing to calculate the seismic activity rate in each cells. The maps for the distribution of horizontal peak ground acceleration with 10% probability of exceedance in 50 years were obtained through using the method of seismic hazard analysis based on cell source. While the total number of earthquakes unchanged, two-stage smoothing procedure deals with the error of epicenter location, contains the seismotectonic information in elliptical smoothing seismicity model. This method build up a simple and easy methodology of probabilistic seismic hazard analysis, especially for those place where not yet been clearly master the seismic tectonic information and with distributed Seismic activity.

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