Absence of Near-Trench Early Triggering during the 2012 Mw 7.2 Indian Ocean Strike-Slip Earthquake: Evidence from One-Day Aftershocks

Dynamic earthquake triggering is a widely accepted mechanism of earthquake interaction, which plays a vital role in seismic hazard estimation, although its efficacy at regional distances is under debate. The 2012 Mw 7.2 Indian Ocean event is one of the first reported events to produce dynamic stress triggering at regional distances using backprojection (BP) techniques. Alternatively, the coherent radiators in BP images can be interpreted as localized water reverberation phases. We present further evidence against near-trench triggering during this event. We collected 24 hr seismic recordings of two nearby stations located near the trench. We adopted a waveform denoising algorithm and detected 125 aftershocks using two regional seismic stations with a minimum magnitude of ML∼2.7 and completeness magnitude of ML∼3.6, whereas none of these aftershocks occurred near the trench. The absence of immediate (within one day) aftershocks near the trench suggest the absence of dynamic triggering during the offshore mainshock.

Analysis of the 2016–2018 fluid-injection induced seismicity in the High Agri Valley (Southern Italy) from improved detections using template matching

Improving the capability of seismic network to detect weak seismic events is one of the timeless challenges in seismology: the greater is the number of detected and locatable seismic events, the greater insights on the mechanisms responsible for seismic activation may be gained. Here we implement and apply a single-station template matching algorithm to detect events belonging to the fluid-injection induced seismicity cluster located in the High Agri Valley, Southern Italy, using the continuous seismic data stream of the closest station of the INSIEME network. To take into account the diversity of waveforms, albeit belonging to the same seismic cluster, eight different master templates were adopted. Afterwards, using all the stations of the network, we provide a seismic catalogue consisting of 196 located earthquakes, in the magnitude range − 1.2 ≤ Ml ≤ 1.2, with a completeness magnitude Mc = − 0.5 ± 0.1. This rich seismic catalogue allows us to describe the damage zone of a SW dipping fault, characterized by a variety of fractures critically stressed in the dip range between ~ 45° and ~ 75°. The time-evolution of seismicity clearly shows seismic swarm distribution characteristics with many events of similar magnitude, and the seismicity well correlates with injection operational parameters (i.e. injected volumes and injection pressures).

ETAS-Approach Accounting for Short-Term Incompleteness of Earthquake Catalogs

ABSTRACT The epidemic-type aftershock sequence (ETAS) model is a powerful statistical model to explain and forecast the spatiotemporal evolution of seismicity. However, its parameter estimation can be strongly biased by catalog deficiencies, particularly short-term incompleteness related to missing events in phases of high-seismic activity. Recent studies have shown that these short-term fluctuations of the completeness magnitude can be explained by the blindness of detection algorithms after earthquakes, preventing the detection of events with a smaller magnitude. Based on this assumption, I derive a direct relation between the true and detectable seismicity rate and magnitude distributions, respectively. These relations only include one additional parameter, the so-called blind time Tb, and lead to a closed-form maximum-likelihood formulation to estimate the ETAS parameters directly accounting for varying completeness. Tests using synthetic simulations show that the true parameters can be resolved from incomplete catalogs. Finally, I apply the new model to California’s most prominent mainshock–aftershock sequences in the last decades. The results show that the model leads to superior fits with Tb decreasing with time, indicating improved detection algorithms. The estimated parameters significantly differ from the estimation with the standard approach, indicating higher b-values and larger trigger potentials than previously thought.

A revised image of the instrumental seismicity in the Lodi area (Po Plain, Italy)

We analysed the instrumental seismicity in a sector of the Po Plain (Italy) to define the baseline for seismic monitoring of a new underground gas storage plant that will use the depleted gas reservoir of Cornegliano Laudense, near Lodi. The target area – a square approximately 80 km × 80 km wide – is commonly considered aseismic. The analysed period, 1951–2019, includes all available instrumental data. We gathered the P- and S-phase readings collected by various agencies for more than 300 events, approximately located inside the target area. We processed the earthquakes uniformly, using absolute location algorithms and velocity models adopted by the regional and national monitoring networks. The relocated earthquake dataset depicts an image of weak and deep seismicity for this central sector of the Po Plain, which is quite different from the initial one derived from the existing earthquake catalogues. Within a distance of approximately 30 km from Lodi, earthquakes are extremely rare (on average 0.5 earthquakes per year, assuming a completeness magnitude Mc = 2.7 from the 1980s); only two weak events fall at less than 15 km distance from the reservoir in the whole period 1951–2019. The strongest events instrumentally recorded are related to the seismic sequence of Caviaga in 1951 that represent the first instrumental recordings for that area. Confirming the hypocentral depths recently proposed by Caciagli et al. (2015), the events are far from the gas reservoir; we suggest common tectonic stress of the main shock of 1951 and the M4.2 earthquake of 17 December 2020, based on the similarities in depth, location, and focal mechanism. While it is clear that the deep seismicity corresponds to the collision between the Northern Apennines and the Southern Alps, the characterization of the geological structures that generate earthquakes appears uncertain. Our results are a preliminary benchmark for the definition of seismogenic zones in the Lodi area, whose definition can be improved with the existing observational capabilities now available in the surroundings.

A harmonised instrumental earthquake catalogue for Iceland and the northern Mid-Atlantic Ridge

A comprehensive catalogue of historical earthquakes, with accurate epicentres and harmonised magnitudes is a crucial resource for seismic hazard mapping. Here we update and combine catalogues from several sources to compile a catalogue of earthquakes in and near Iceland, in the years 1900–2019. In particular the epicentres are based on local information, whereas the magnitudes are based on teleseismic observations, primarily from international online catalogues. The most reliable epicentre information comes from the catalogue of the Icelandic Meteorological Office, but this is complemented with information from several technical reports, scientific publications, and newspaper articles. The catalogue contains 1281 moment magnitude (Mw) ≥4 events, and the estimated completeness magnitude is Mw 5.5 in the first years, going down to Mw 4.5 for recent years. The largest magnitude is Mw 7.0. Such merging of local data and teleseismic catalogues has not been done before for Icelandic earthquakes, and the result is an earthquake map with much more accurate locations than earlier maps. The catalogue also lists 5640 additional earthquakes on the Mid-Atlantic Ridge, north of 43∘, with both epicentres and magnitudes determined teleseismically. When moment magnitudes are not available, proxy Mw values are computed using χ2 regression, normally on the surface-wave magnitude but exceptionally on the body-wave magnitude. Magnitudes of Mw≥4.5 have associated uncertainty estimates. The actual combined seismic moment released in the Icelandic earthquakes is found to be consistent with the moment estimated using a simple plate motion model, indicating that the seismic activity of the catalogue period might be typical of any 120-year time span. The catalogue is named ICEL-NMAR, and it is available online at http://data.mendeley.com (last access: 19 July 2021).

Reservoir-Triggered Earthquakes Around the Atatürk Dam (Southeastern Turkey)

Reservoir-triggered seismicity has been observed near dams during construction, impoundment, and cyclic filling in many parts of the earth. In Turkey, the number of dams has increased substantially over the last decade, with Atatürk Dam being the largest dam in Turkey with a total water capacity of 48.7 billion m3. After the construction of the dam, the monitoring network has improved. Considering earthquakes above the long-term completeness magnitude of MC = 3.5, the local seismicity rate has substantially increased after the filling of the reservoir. Recently, two damaging earthquakes of Mw 5.5 and Mw 5.1 occurred in the town of Samsat near the Atatürk Reservoir in 2017 and 2018, respectively. In this study, we analyze the spatio-temporal evolution of seismicity and its source properties in relation to the temporal water-level variations and the stresses resulting from surface loading and pore-pressure diffusion. We find that water-level and seismicity rate are anti-correlated, which is explained by the stabilization effect of the gravitational induced stress imposed by water loading on the local faults. On the other hand, we find that the overall effective stress in the seismogenic zone increased over decades due to pore-pressure diffusion, explaining the enhanced background seismicity during recent years. Additionally, we observe a progressive decrease of the Gutenberg-Richter b-value. Our results indicate that the stressing rate finally focused on the region where the two damaging earthquakes occurred in 2017 and 2018.

High-Definition Mapping of the Gutenberg–Richter b-Value and Its Relevance: A Case Study in Italy

The spatial variability of the magnitude–frequency distribution is important to improve earthquake forecasting capabilities at different time scales. Here, we develop a novel approach, based on the weighted maximum-likelihood estimation, to build a spatial model for the b-value parameter of the Gutenberg–Richter law and its uncertainty, also for earthquake catalogs with a time-varying completeness magnitude. Then, we also provide a guideline based on the Bayes factor to measure the importance of the b-value spatial variability with respect to a model having a spatially uniform b-value. Finally, we apply the procedure to a new Italian instrumental earthquake catalog from 1960 to 2019 to investigate the b-value spatial variability over the Italian territory.

The Reliance of the Earthquake B-Value on Depth and Focal Mechanism

The earthquake size distribution (b-value) is a significant factor to recognize the seismic activity, seismotectonic, and seismic hazard assessment. In the current work, the connection of the b-constant value with the focal depth and mechanism was studied. The effect of the study scale (global, regional and local) on the dependence of b-value on the focal mechanisms was investigated. The database is quoted from the Global Centroid Moment Tensor catalog. The selected earthquakes are the shallow normal, reverse and strike-slip events. The completeness magnitude (Mc) is 5.3. The maximum likelihood method is utilized to compute the b-value. The obtained results show that the b-value is decreasing with depth to range 10-20 km, then increases to the depth of 40km. The turning point of b-value (increasing of b-value) locates at the depth of the transition brittle-ductile zone. Globally and regionally, low, moderate, and high b-values are associated with reverse, strike-slip, and normal focal mechanisms, respectively, while locally, the relation between b-values and focal mechanisms shows different association trends, such as low, moderate, and high b-values are associated with normal, strike-slip, and reverse focal mechanisms and so on.

The Signal to Noise Ratio and the Completeness Magnitude: The Effect of the COVID-19 Lockdown

We analyse the earthquakes catalogues for Italy, South California, and Greece across the COVID-19 lockdown period for each country. The results for Italy and Greece show that, even if the reduction of the signal to noise ratio has improved the earthquake detection capability, the completeness magnitude remains substantially unchanged, making the improved detection capability ineffective from the statistical point of view. A slight reduction (0.2) of the completeness magnitude is observed for South California, likely related to the relatively higher number of seismic stations located close to urban areas. Our findings suggest that—given the present configuration of the seismic network considered here—only an important decrease in the station spacing can produce a significant decrease of the completeness magnitude.