scholarly journals Enhanced or distorted wisdom of crowds? An agent-based model of opinion formation under social influence

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Pavlin Mavrodiev ◽  
Frank Schweitzer
Keyword(s):  
Social Influence ◽  
Correct Answer ◽  
Wisdom Of Crowds ◽  
Full Information ◽  
Agent Based Model ◽  
Opinion Formation ◽  
Agent Based ◽  
Factual Question ◽  
True Answer ◽  
The Wisdom Of Crowds

AbstractWe propose an agent-based model of collective opinion formation to study the wisdom of crowds under social influence. The opinion of an agent is a continuous positive value, denoting its subjective answer to a factual question. The wisdom of crowds states that the average of all opinions is close to the truth, i.e., the correct answer. But if agents have the chance to adjust their opinion in response to the opinions of others, this effect can be destroyed. Our model investigates this scenario by evaluating two competing effects: (1) agents tend to keep their own opinion (individual conviction), (2) they tend to adjust their opinion if they have information about the opinions of others (social influence). For the latter, two different regimes (full information vs. aggregated information) are compared. Our simulations show that social influence only in rare cases enhances the wisdom of crowds. Most often, we find that agents converge to a collective opinion that is even farther away from the true answer. Therefore, under social influence the wisdom of crowds can be systematically wrong.

The Paradox of Interaction: Communication Network Centralization, Shared Task Experience, and the Wisdom of Crowds in Online Crowdsourcing Communities

2020 ◽  
pp. 009365022091503
Author(s):  
Bei Yan ◽  
Lian Jian ◽  
Ruqin Ren ◽  
Janet Fulk ◽  
Emily Sidnam-Mauch ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Communication Network ◽  
Social Influence ◽  
Communication Networks ◽  
Collective Learning ◽  
Wisdom Of Crowds ◽  
Shared Task ◽  
Data Set ◽  
Collective Wisdom ◽  
Task Experience ◽  
The Wisdom Of Crowds

Research on the wisdom of crowds (WOC) identifies two paradoxical effects of communication. The social influence effect hampers the WOC, whereas the collective learning effect improves crowd wisdom. Yet it remains unclear under what conditions such communication impedes or enhances collective wisdom. The current study examined two features characterizing communication in online communities, communication network centralization and shared task experience, and their effect on the WOC. Both these features can serve as indicators of the likelihood that underlying communication may facilitate either social influence or collective learning. With an 8-year longitudinal behavioral-trace data set of 269,871 participants and 1,971 crowds, we showed that communication network centralization negatively affected the WOC. By contrast, shared task experience positively predicted the WOC. Shared task experience also moderated the effect of communication network centralization such that centralized communication networks became more beneficial for crowd performance as shared task experience increased.

scholarly journals Agent-Based Modeling of a Self-Organized Food Safety System

Safety ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 5 (3) ◽  
pp. 52
Author(s):  
Kashif Zia ◽  
Umar Farooq ◽  
Arshad Muhammad
Keyword(s):  
Social Cognition ◽  
Food Safety ◽  
Agent Based Modeling ◽  
Safety System ◽  
Wisdom Of Crowds ◽  
Agent Based ◽  
System A ◽  
Self Organized ◽  
Social Discourses ◽  
The Wisdom Of Crowds

“The wisdom of crowds” is often observed in social discourses and activities around us. The manifestations of it are, however, so intrinsically embedded and behaviorally accepted that an elaboration of a social phenomenon evidencing such wisdom is often considered a discovery; or at least an astonishing fact. One such scenario is explored here, namely, the conceptualization and modeling of a food safety system—a system directly related to social cognition. The first contribution of this paper is the re-evaluation of Knowles’s model towards a more conscious understanding of “the wisdom of crowds” effects on inspection and consumption behaviors. The second contribution is augmenting the model with social networking capabilities, which acts as a medium to spread information about stores and help consumers find uncontaminated stores. Simulation results revealed that stores respecting social cognition improve the effectiveness of the food safety system for consumers as well as for the stores. Simulation findings also revealed that active societies have the capability to self-organize effectively, even if they lack regulatory obligations.

scholarly journals Supporting Policy Design for the Diffusion of Cleaner Technologies: A Spatial Empirical Agent-Based Model

2020 ◽  
Vol 9 (10) ◽  
pp. 581 ◽  
Author(s):  
Caterina Caprioli ◽  
Marta Bottero ◽  
Elena De Angelis
Keyword(s):  
Policy Design ◽  
Renewable Energy Resources ◽  
Agent Based Model ◽  
Opinion Formation ◽  
Real World Data ◽  
Agent Based ◽  
Pv Systems ◽  
Definition Of

Renewable energy resources and energy-efficient technologies, as well as building retrofitting, are only some of the possible strategies that can achieve more sustainable cities and reduce greenhouse gas emissions. Subsidies and incentives are often provided by governments to increase the number of people adopting these sustainable energy efficiency actions. However, actual sales of green products are currently not as high as would be desired. The present paper applies a hybrid agent-based model (ABM) integrated with a Geographic Information System (GIS) to simulate a complex socio-economic-architectural adaptive system to study the temporal diffusion and the willingness of inhabitants to adopt photovoltaic (PV) systems. The San Salvario neighborhood in Turin (Italy) is used as an exemplary case study for testing consumer behavior associated with this technology, integrating social network theories, opinion formation dynamics and an adaptation of the theory of planned behavior (TPB). Data/characteristics for both buildings and people are explicitly spatialized with the level of detail at the block scale. Particular attention is given to the comparison of the policy mix for supporting decision-makers and policymakers in the definition of the most efficient strategies for achieving a long-term vision of sustainable development. Both variables and outcomes accuracy of the model are validated with historical real-world data.

scholarly journals When social influence promotes the wisdom of crowds

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Abdullah Almaatouq ◽  
M. Amin Rahimian ◽  
Abdulla Alhajri
Keyword(s):  
Social Influence ◽  
Network Structure ◽  
Human Subjects ◽  
Wisdom Of Crowds ◽  
Social Network Structure ◽  
Crowd Wisdom ◽  
The Social ◽  
Computational Sciences ◽  
The Impact ◽  
The Wisdom Of Crowds

Whether, and under what conditions, groups exhibit "crowd wisdom" has been a major focus of research across the social and computational sciences. Much of this work has focused on the role of social influence in promoting the wisdom of the crowd versus leading the crowd astray, resulting in conflicting conclusions about how the social network structure determines the impact of social influence. Here, we demonstrate that it is not enough to consider the network structure in isolation. Using theoretical analysis, numerical simulation, and reanalysis of four experimental datasets (totaling 4,002 human subjects), we find that the wisdom of crowds critically depends on the interaction between (i) the centralization of the social influence network and (ii) the distribution of the initial, individual estimates, i.e., the estimation context. Specifically, we propose a feature of the estimation context that measures the suitability of the crowd to benefit from influence centralization and show its significant predictive powers empirically. By adopting a framework that integrates both the structure of the social influence and the estimation context, we bring previously conflicting results under one theoretical framework and clarify the effects of social influence on the wisdom of crowds.

scholarly journals Counteracting estimation bias and social influence to improve the wisdom of crowds

2018 ◽  
Author(s):  
Albert B. Kao ◽  
Andrew M. Berdahl ◽  
Andrew T. Hartnett ◽  
Matthew J. Lutz ◽  
Joseph B. Bak-Coleman ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Social Influence ◽  
Estimation Error ◽  
Social Information ◽  
Estimation Bias ◽  
General Strategy ◽  
Wisdom Of Crowds ◽  
Sources Of Error ◽  
True Value ◽  
Wide Range ◽  
The Wisdom Of Crowds

AbstractAggregating multiple non-expert opinions into a collective estimate can improve accuracy across many contexts. However, two sources of error can diminish collective wisdom: individual estimation biases and information sharing between individuals. Here we measure individual biases and social influence rules in multiple experiments involving hundreds of individuals performing a classic numerosity estimation task. We first investigate how existing aggregation methods, such as calculating the arithmetic mean or the median, are influenced by these sources of error. We show that the mean tends to overestimate, and the median underestimate, the true value for a wide range of numerosities. Quantifying estimation bias, and mapping individual bias to collective bias, allows us to develop and validate three new aggregation measures that effectively counter sources of collective estimation error. In addition, we present results from a further experiment that quantifies the social influence rules that individuals employ when incorporating personal estimates with social information. We show that the corrected mean is remarkably robust to social influence, retaining high accuracy in the presence or absence of social influence, across numerosities, and across different methods for averaging social information. Utilizing knowledge of estimation biases and social influence rules may therefore be an inexpensive and general strategy to improve the wisdom of crowds.

scholarly journals Cultural Dissemination: An Agent-Based Model with Social Influence

2021 ◽  
Vol 24 (4) ◽  
Author(s):  
Ngan Nguyen ◽  
Hongfei Chen ◽  
Benjamin Jin ◽  
Walker Quinn ◽  
Conrad Tyler ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Social Influence ◽  
Agent Based Model ◽  
Agent Based ◽  
Cultural Dissemination

scholarly journals Counteracting estimation bias and social influence to improve the wisdom of crowds

2018 ◽  
Vol 15 (141) ◽  
pp. 20180130 ◽  
Author(s):  
Albert B. Kao ◽  
Andrew M. Berdahl ◽  
Andrew T. Hartnett ◽  
Matthew J. Lutz ◽  
Joseph B. Bak-Coleman ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Social Influence ◽  
Estimation Error ◽  
Social Information ◽  
Estimation Bias ◽  
General Strategy ◽  
Wisdom Of Crowds ◽  
Sources Of Error ◽  
True Value ◽  
Wide Range ◽  
The Wisdom Of Crowds

Aggregating multiple non-expert opinions into a collective estimate can improve accuracy across many contexts. However, two sources of error can diminish collective wisdom: individual estimation biases and information sharing between individuals. Here, we measure individual biases and social influence rules in multiple experiments involving hundreds of individuals performing a classic numerosity estimation task. We first investigate how existing aggregation methods, such as calculating the arithmetic mean or the median, are influenced by these sources of error. We show that the mean tends to overestimate, and the median underestimate, the true value for a wide range of numerosities. Quantifying estimation bias, and mapping individual bias to collective bias, allows us to develop and validate three new aggregation measures that effectively counter sources of collective estimation error. In addition, we present results from a further experiment that quantifies the social influence rules that individuals employ when incorporating personal estimates with social information. We show that the corrected mean is remarkably robust to social influence, retaining high accuracy in the presence or absence of social influence, across numerosities and across different methods for averaging social information. Using knowledge of estimation biases and social influence rules may therefore be an inexpensive and general strategy to improve the wisdom of crowds.

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