A scenario-based modeling of climate change impacts on the aboveground net primary production in rangelands of central Iran

2018 ◽  
Vol 77 (19) ◽  
Author(s):  
Marjan Saki ◽  
Mostafa Tarkesh Esfahani ◽  
Saeid Soltani
2015 ◽  
Vol 12 (15) ◽  
pp. 12851-12897 ◽  
Author(s):  
W. Fu ◽  
J. Randerson ◽  
J. K. Moore

Abstract. We examine climate change impacts on net primary production (NPP) and export production (sinking particulate flux; EP) with simulations from nine Earth System Models (ESMs) performed in the framework of the fifth Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project (CMIP5). Global NPP and EP are reduced considerably by the end of the century for the intense warming scenario of Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 8.5. Relative to the 1990s, global NPP in the 2090s is reduced by 2.3–16 % and EP by 7–18 %. The models with the largest increases in stratification (and largest relative reductions in NPP and EP) also show the largest positive biases in stratification for the contemporary period, suggesting some potential overestimation of climate impacts on NPP and EP. All of the CMIP5 models show an increase in stratification in response to surface ocean warming and freshening that is accompanied by decreases in NPP, EP, and surface macronutrient concentrations. There is considerable variability across models in the absolute magnitude of these fluxes, surface nutrient concentrations, and their perturbations by climate change, indicating large model uncertainties. The negative response of NPP and EP to stratification increases reflects a bottom-up control, as nutrient flux to the euphotic zone declines. Models with dynamic phytoplankton community structure show larger declines in EP than in NPP. This is driven by phytoplankton community composition shifts, with a reduced percentage of NPP by large phytoplankton under RCP 8.5, as smaller phytoplankton are favored under the increasing nutrient stress. Thus, projections of the NPP response to climate change in the CMIP5 models are critically dependent on the simulated phytoplankton community structure, the efficiency of the biological pump, and the resulting (highly variable) levels of regenerated production. Community composition is represented relatively simply in the CMIP5 models, and should be expanded to better capture the spatial patterns and the changes in export efficiency that are necessary for predicting climate impacts on NPP.


2016 ◽  
Vol 13 (18) ◽  
pp. 5151-5170 ◽  
Author(s):  
Weiwei Fu ◽  
James T. Randerson ◽  
J. Keith Moore

Abstract. We examine climate change impacts on net primary production (NPP) and export production (sinking particulate flux; EP) with simulations from nine Earth system models (ESMs) performed in the framework of the fifth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5). Global NPP and EP are reduced by the end of the century for the intense warming scenario of Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 8.5. Relative to the 1990s, NPP in the 2090s is reduced by 2–16 % and EP by 7–18 %. The models with the largest increases in stratification (and largest relative declines in NPP and EP) also show the largest positive biases in stratification for the contemporary period, suggesting overestimation of climate change impacts on NPP and EP. All of the CMIP5 models show an increase in stratification in response to surface–ocean warming and freshening, which is accompanied by decreases in surface nutrients, NPP and EP. There is considerable variability across the models in the magnitudes of NPP, EP, surface nutrient concentrations and their perturbations by climate change. The negative response of NPP and EP to increasing stratification reflects primarily a bottom-up control, as upward nutrient flux declines at the global scale. Models with dynamic phytoplankton community structure show larger declines in EP than in NPP. This pattern is driven by phytoplankton community composition shifts, with reductions in productivity by large phytoplankton as smaller phytoplankton (which export less efficiently) are favored under the increasing nutrient stress. Thus, the projections of the NPP response to climate change are critically dependent on the simulated phytoplankton community structure, the efficiency of the biological pump and the resulting levels of regenerated production, which vary widely across the models. Community structure is represented simply in the CMIP5 models, and should be expanded to better capture the spatial patterns and climate-driven changes in export efficiency.


2016 ◽  
Author(s):  
Hadi Eskandari Dameneh ◽  
Moslem Borji ◽  
Hassan Khosravi ◽  
Ali Salajeghe

Abstract. Persistence of widespread degradation in arid and semi-arid region of Iran necessitates using of monitoring and evaluation systems with appropriate accuracy to determine the degradation process and adoption of early warning systems; because after transition from some thresholds, effective reversible function of ecosystems will not be very easy. This paper tries to monitor the degradation and desertification trends in three land uses including range, forest and desert lands affected by climate change in Tehran province for 2000s and 2030s. For assessing climate changes of Mehrabad synoptic stations the data of two emission scenarios including A2 and B2 were used using statistical downscaling techniques and data generated by SDSM model. The index of net primary production resulting from MODIS satellite images was employed as an indicator of destruction from 2001 to 2010. The results showed that temperature is the most effective driver force which alters the net primary production in rangeland, forest and desert ecosystems of Tehran province. On the basis of monitoring findings under real conditions, in the 2000s, over 60 % of rangelands and 80 % of the forests have been below the average production in the province. On the other hand, the long-term average changes of NPP in rangeland and forests indicated the presence of relatively large areas of these land uses with production rate lower than the desert. The results also showed that, assuming the existence of circumstances of each emission scenarios, the desertification status will not improve significantly in the rangelands and forests of Tehran province.


2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jake D. Graham

Northern peatlands are a major terrestrial carbon (C) store, with an annual sink of 0.1 Pg C yr-1 and a total storage estimate of 547 Pg C. Northern peatlands are also major contributors of atmospheric methane, a potent greenhouse gas. The microtopography of peatlands helps modulate peatland carbon fluxes; however, there is a lack of quantitative characterizations of microtopography in the literature. The lack of formalized schemes to characterize microtopography makes comparisons between studies difficult. Further, many land surface models do not accurately simulate peatland C emissions, in part because they do not adequately represent peatland microtopography and hydrology. The C balance of peatlands is determined by differences in C influxes and effluxes, with the largest being net primary production and heterotrophic respiration, respectively. Tree net primary production at a treed bog in northern Minnesota represented about 13% of C inputs to the peatland, and marks tree aboveground net primary production (ANPP) as an important pathway for C to enter peatlands. Tree species Picea mariana (Black spruce) and Larix Laricina (Tamarack) are typically found in wooded peatlands in North America, and are widely distributed in the North American boreal zone. Therefore, understanding how these species will respond to environmental change is needed to make predictions of peatland C budgets in the future. As the climate warms, peatlands are expected to increase C release to the atmosphere, resulting in a positive feedback loop. Further, climate warming is expected to occur faster in northern latitudes compared to the rest of the globe. The Spruce and Peatland Responses Under Changing Environments (SPRUCE; https://mnspruce.ornl.gov/) manipulates temperature and CO2 concentrations to evaluate the in-situ response of a peatland to environmental change and is located in Minnesota, USA. In this dissertation, I documented surface roughness metrics for peatland microtopography in SPRUCE plots and developed three explicit methods for classifying frequently used microtopographic classes (microforms) for different scientific applications. Subsequently I used one of these characterizations to perform a sensitivity analysis and improve the parameterization of microtopography in a land surface model that was calibrated at the SPRUCE site. The modeled outputs of C from the analyses ranged from 0.8-34.8% when microtopographical parameters were allowed to vary within observed ranges. Further, C related outputs when using our data-driven parameterization differed from outputs when using the default parameterization by -7.9 - 12.2%. Finally, I utilized TLS point clouds to assess the effect elevated temperature and CO2 concentrations had on P. mariana and L. laricina after the first four years of SPRUCE treatments. I observed that P. mariana growth (aboveground net primary production) had a negative response to temperature initially, but the relationship became less pronounced through time. Conversely, L. laricina had no growth response to temperature initially, but developed a positive relationship through time. The divergent growth responses of P. mariana and L. laricina resulted in no detectable change in aboveground net primary production at the community level. Results from this dissertation help improve how peatland microtopography is represented, and improves understanding of how peatland tree growth will respond to environmental change in the future.


Trees ◽  
2000 ◽  
Vol 14 (7) ◽  
pp. 415-421 ◽  
Author(s):  
J. Oleksyn ◽  
P.B. Reich ◽  
L. Rachwal ◽  
M.G. Tjoelker ◽  
P. Karolewski

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