A procedure to reduce parameter uncertainty for complex models by comparison with real system output illustrated on a potato growth model

1991 ◽  
Vol 36 (4) ◽  
pp. 375-395 ◽  
Author(s):  
O. Klepper ◽  
D.I. Rouse
Keyword(s):  
Growth Model ◽  
Parameter Uncertainty ◽  
Real System ◽  
Complex Models ◽  
System Output ◽  
Potato Growth

scholarly journals Providing a Broad Spectrum of Agents in Spatially Explicit Simulation Models: The Gensim Approach

2002 ◽  
Author(s):  
John Anderson
Keyword(s):  
Resource Management ◽  
Computer Technology ◽  
Simulation Models ◽  
Real System ◽  
Iterative Development ◽  
Modeling Process ◽  
Resource Managers ◽  
Complex Models ◽  
Patterns And Processes ◽  
Changes Over Time

Research in natural resource management may be characterized as a search for an understanding of patterns and processes relating to a particular resource. Modeling is a crucial tool to these efforts: resource scientists use such models to help them conceptualize, understand, test, predict, or assess various aspects of the resource being studied. One central function, however, underlies all of these uses: a model simulates the way in which a real system would behave under conditions of interest to the user, and illustrates changes over time. Such a model may be used to determine the consequences of particular situations, leaving judgment of the attractiveness of those consequences to the user. Particularly in the case of complex ecosystems, such a model may also serve to clarify interactions and contribute to a deeper understanding of ecological phenomena. In recent years, computer-based models have become the most significant tool of resource managers, for two reasons. First, any model must accurately portray the real system it represents if research based on the model is to have any reliability. The use of computer technology has greatly increased the extent and the detail to which ecosystems can be modeled, and thus the accuracy of these models. The other reason for the extensive use of computer models is the flexibility that the computer as a tool brings to the modeling process. Many ecosystems are poorly understood, and complex models for such poorly understood systems are almost never completed. Rather, modeling such a system is an iterative process, with a partial understanding generating new hypotheses, which in turn generate changes to the model based on further research. Computer technology brings flexibility and ease of modification to the modeling process, naturally supporting this iterative development. In addition, as the alternatives available in resolving resource management problems become increasingly expensive, and the resources themselves become increasingly scarce and valuable, such models become vital tools not only in the direct management of resources, but in the control of expenses associated with resource management as well.

scholarly journals SISTEM ADMINISTRASI AKADEMIK JURUSAN D3 AKUNTANSI BERBASIS TEKNOLOGI INFORMASI

2016 ◽  
Vol 13 (2) ◽  
Author(s):  
Lucy Sri Musmini ◽  
Ni Ketut Kertiasih
Keyword(s):  
Information Technology ◽  
Real System ◽  
Administration System ◽  
Academic Administration ◽  
Development Method ◽  
The Real ◽  
Academic Activities ◽  
System Input ◽  
System Output

AbstrakPerkembangan teknologi informasi dapat mempermudah dan mempercepat kegiatan yang dilakukan oleh sistem administrasi akademik. Tujuan penelitian ini adalah mengembangkan sistem administrasi akademik berbasis teknologi informasi Jurusan D3 Akuntansi Undiksha.Metode yang digunakan pada penelitian ini adalah metode pengembangan, dalam hal ini studi kasus pengembangan sebuah sistem administrasi akademik berbasis teknologi pada Jurusan D3 Akuntansi.Hasil penelitian ini adalah analisis sistem, yang terdiri dari analisis kelemahan dan kebutuhan sistem, dan desain sistem, yang terdiri dari desain konteks, flowchart, dan desain sistem riil. Sistem yang dikembangkan terkait dengan kegiatan akademik mahasiswa, dosen, dan jurusan. Akses input sistem dapat dilakukan oleh mahasiswa, dosen, dan administrasi, sedangkan akses output sistem dapat dilakukan oleh dosen dan administrasi. Administrasi jurusan dalam penelitian ini adalah sekretaris jurusan. Informasi yang diperoleh dari sistem adalah kegiatan akademik mahasiswa, dosen, dan jurusan pada Jurusan D3 Akuntansi. Implikasi penelitian ini adalah sistem adminstrasi akademik jurusan yang semakin efektif dan efisien. Kata kunci: Sistem, Administrasi Akademik, dan Teknologi Informasi AbstractThe purpose of this research is to develop academic administration system based on technology information for D3 Accounting Department, Undiksha.The method used in this research is the development method with case study to develop academic administration system based on technology information at the Department of Accounting D3.The results are the analysis of the system, which consists of the analysis of the weaknesses and needs of the system, and the design of the system, which consists of the design context, flowchart, and the design of the real system. The system developed and obtained information related to academic activities of students, lecturer, and department. Access to system input can be done by students, lecturer, and administration, while access to the system output can be done by the lecturer and administration. Administration majoring in this research is the department secretary. Implication of this research is the major system of academic administration more effective and efficient. Keywords : Systems, Academic Administration, and Information Technology

scholarly journals A collection of programs for one-dimensional Ising analysis of linear repeat proteins with point substitutions

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jacob D. Marold ◽  
Kevin Sforza ◽  
Kathryn Geiger-Schuller ◽  
Tural Aksel ◽  
Sean Klein ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Parameter Uncertainty ◽  
Free Energies ◽  
Interfacial Coupling ◽  
Bootstrap Analysis ◽  
One Dimensional ◽  
Repeat Proteins ◽  
Rigorous Statistical Analysis ◽  
Estimate Parameter ◽  
Rigorous Framework ◽  
Complex Models

AbstractA collection of programs is presented to analyze the thermodynamics of folding of linear repeat proteins using a 1D Ising model to determine intrinsic folding and interfacial coupling free energies. Expressions for folding transitions are generated for a series of constructs with different repeat numbers and are globally fitted to transitions for these constructs. These programs are designed to analyze Ising parameters for capped homopolymeric consensus repeat constructs as well as heteropolymeric constructs that contain point substitutions, providing a rigorous framework for analysis of the effects of mutation on intrinsic and directional (i.e., N- versus C-terminal) interfacial coupling free-energies. A bootstrap analysis is provided to estimate parameter uncertainty as well as correlations among fitted parameters. Rigorous statistical analysis is essential for interpreting fits using the complex models required for Ising analysis of repeat proteins, especially heteropolymeric repeat proteins. Programs described here are available at https://github.com/barricklab-at-jhu/Ising_programs.

Validation of a simple potato growth model in the North Central United States

1988 ◽  
Vol 65 (1) ◽  
pp. 27-44 ◽  
Author(s):  
K. B. Johnson ◽  
R. L. Conlon ◽  
S. S. Adams ◽  
D. C. Nelson ◽  
D. I. Rouse ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Growth Model ◽  
North Central ◽  
The North ◽  
Central United States ◽  
Potato Growth

scholarly journals Simulation modeling of phytoplankton dynamics in a large eutrophic river, Hungary — Danubian Phytoplankton Growth Model (DPGM)

Biologia ◽  
2012 ◽  
Vol 67 (2) ◽  
Author(s):  
Csaba Sipkay ◽  
Tihamér Kiss-Keve ◽  
Csaba Vadadi-Fülöp ◽  
Réka Homoródi ◽  
Levente Hufnagel
Keyword(s):  
Growth Model ◽  
Environmental Sustainability ◽  
Simulated Data ◽  
Phytoplankton Growth ◽  
Danube River ◽  
Total Biomass ◽  
Large Set ◽  
Linear Temperature ◽  
Strategic Model ◽  
Complex Models

AbstractEcological models have often been used in order to answer questions that are in the limelight of recent researches such as the possible effects of climate change. The methodology of tactical models is a very useful tool comparison to those complex models requiring relatively large set of input parameters. In this study, a theoretical strategic model (TEGM) was adapted to the field data on the basis of a 24-year long monitoring database of phytoplankton in the Danube River at the station of Göd, Hungary (at 1669 river kilometer - hereafter referred to as “rkm”). The Danubian Phytoplankton Growth Model (DPGM) is able to describe the seasonal dynamics of phytoplankton biomass (mg L−1) based on daily temperature, but takes the availability of light into consideration as well. In order to improve fitting, the 24-year long database was split in two parts in accordance with environmental sustainability. The period of 1979–1990 has a higher level of nutrient excess compared with that of the 1991–2002. The authors assume that, in the above-mentioned periods, phytoplankton responded to temperature in two different ways, thus two submodels were developed, DPGM-sA and DPGM-sB. Observed and simulated data correlated quite well. Findings suggest that linear temperature rise brings drastic change to phytoplankton only in case of high nutrient load and it is mostly realized through the increase of yearly total biomass.

Development of a simple potato growth model for use in crop-pest management

1986 ◽  
Vol 19 (3) ◽  
pp. 189-209 ◽  
Author(s):  
K.B. Johnson ◽  
S.B. Johnson ◽  
P.S. Teng
Keyword(s):  
Pest Management ◽  
Growth Model ◽  
Crop Pest ◽  
Potato Growth

scholarly journals SISTEM ADMINISTRASI AKADEMIK JURUSAN D3 AKUNTANSI BERBASIS TEKNOLOGI INFORMASI

2016 ◽  
Vol 13 (2) ◽  
Author(s):  
Lucy Sri Musmini ◽  
Ni Ketut Kertiasih
Keyword(s):  
Information Technology ◽  
Real System ◽  
Administration System ◽  
Academic Administration ◽  
Development Method ◽  
The Real ◽  
Academic Activities ◽  
System Input ◽  
System Output

AbstrakPerkembangan teknologi informasi dapat mempermudah dan mempercepat kegiatan yang dilakukan oleh sistem administrasi akademik. Tujuan penelitian ini adalah mengembangkan sistem administrasi akademik berbasis teknologi informasi Jurusan D3 Akuntansi Undiksha.Metode yang digunakan pada penelitian ini adalah metode pengembangan, dalam hal ini studi kasus pengembangan sebuah sistem administrasi akademik berbasis teknologi pada Jurusan D3 Akuntansi.Hasil penelitian ini adalah analisis sistem, yang terdiri dari analisis kelemahan dan kebutuhan sistem, dan desain sistem, yang terdiri dari desain konteks, flowchart, dan desain sistem riil. Sistem yang dikembangkan terkait dengan kegiatan akademik mahasiswa, dosen, dan jurusan. Akses input sistem dapat dilakukan oleh mahasiswa, dosen, dan administrasi, sedangkan akses output sistem dapat dilakukan oleh dosen dan administrasi. Administrasi jurusan dalam penelitian ini adalah sekretaris jurusan. Informasi yang diperoleh dari sistem adalah kegiatan akademik mahasiswa, dosen, dan jurusan pada Jurusan D3 Akuntansi. Implikasi penelitian ini adalah sistem adminstrasi akademik jurusan yang semakin efektif dan efisien. Kata kunci: Sistem, Administrasi Akademik, dan Teknologi Informasi AbstractThe purpose of this research is to develop academic administration system based on technology information for D3 Accounting Department, Undiksha.The method used in this research is the development method with case study to develop academic administration system based on technology information at the Department of Accounting D3.The results are the analysis of the system, which consists of the analysis of the weaknesses and needs of the system, and the design of the system, which consists of the design context, flowchart, and the design of the real system. The system developed and obtained information related to academic activities of students, lecturer, and department. Access to system input can be done by students, lecturer, and administration, while access to the system output can be done by the lecturer and administration. Administration majoring in this research is the department secretary. Implication of this research is the major system of academic administration more effective and efficient. Keywords : Systems, Academic Administration, and Information Technology

scholarly journals Encapsulation of parametric uncertainty statistics by various predictive machine learning models: MLUE method

2013 ◽  
Vol 16 (1) ◽  
pp. 95-113 ◽  
Author(s):  
Durga L. Shrestha ◽  
Nagendra Kayastha ◽  
Dimitri Solomatine ◽  
Roland Price
Keyword(s):  
Machine Learning ◽  
Monte Carlo Simulation ◽  
Monte Carlo ◽  
Real Time ◽  
Parameter Uncertainty ◽  
Model Output ◽  
Learning Models ◽  
Output Uncertainty ◽  
Complex Models ◽  
Machine Learning Models

Monte Carlo simulation-based uncertainty analysis techniques have been applied successfully in hydrology for quantification of the model output uncertainty. They are flexible, conceptually simple and straightforward, but provide only average measures of uncertainty based on past data. However, if one needs to estimate uncertainty of a model in a particular hydro-meteorological situation in real time application of complex models, Monte Carlo simulation becomes impractical because of the large number of model runs required. This paper presents a novel approach to encapsulating and predicting parameter uncertainty of hydrological models using machine learning techniques. Generalised likelihood uncertainty estimation method (a version of the Monte Carlo method) is first used to assess the parameter uncertainty of a hydrological model, and then the generated data are used to train three machine learning models. Inputs to these models are specially identified representative variables. The trained models are then employed to predict the model output uncertainty which is specific for the new input data. This method has been applied to two contrasting catchments. The experimental results demonstrate that the machine learning models are quite accurate. An important advantage of the proposed method is its efficiency allowing for assessing uncertainty of complex models in real time.

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