Can a new generation of countries emerge and establish themselves as major exporters of manufactures on the basis neo-liberal economic policies and thus replicate the outstanding performance of the first generation Asian and Latin American newly industrialized countries (NICs)? The article seeks to answer this question on the basis of a case-study, Turkey, a country which has managed to undertake a significant switch from import-substitution to export-orientation under an essentially neo-liberal reform package. The central argument may be summarized as follows. Neo-liberal reforms, when combined with a number of favourable “external conditions”, are quite successful in terms of engineering a shift of the existing productive capacity from import-substitution towards exports. Yet, such policies, on the whole, are less successful in terms of generating the level of investment necessary to sustain rapid growth in manufactured exports over time and also to achieve a steady process of export deepening. A sustained breakthrough in manufactured export growth cannot be realized by trade liberalization and exchange rate policy alone. Macroeconomic management and strategic industrial policy are likely to play a key role, particularly following the initial and comparatively easy phase of export-substitution.
Analysis of Import Demand for Wooden Beds in the U.S.
