Households’ inflation perceptions and expectations: survey evidence from New Zealand

In this paper, we study how inflation is viewed by the general population of New Zealand. Based on unique representative survey data collected in 2016 and using descriptive statistics and multivariate regressions, we explore various aspects of how laypersons perceive inflation and form inflation expectations. We focus on how an individual’s economic situation, information search and interest in inflation, economic knowledge, and attitudes and values are related to inflation perception and expectation, as well as the individual’s reaction to them. We interpret our findings as a clear indication that laypersons’ knowledge about inflation is much better described by the imperfect information view prevailing in social psychology than by the rational actor view typically assumed in economics.

How to True Psychology’s Objects

Psychology’s current crisis attends most visibly to perceived problems with statistical models, methods, publication practices, and career incentives. Rarely is close attention given to the objects of inquiry—to ontological matters—yet the crisis-related literature does features statements about the nature of psychology’s objects. Close analysis of the ontological claims reveals discrepant understandings: some researchers assume objects to be stable and singular while others posit them to be dynamic and complex. Nevertheless, both views presume the objects under scrutiny to be real. The analysis also finds each of these ontological claims to be associated not only with particular method prescriptions but also with distinct notions of the scientific self. Though both take the scientific self to be objective, one figures the scientist as not always a rational actor and, therefore, requiring some behavior regulation, while the other sees the scientist as largely capable of self-governing sustained through painstakingly acquired expertise and self-control. The fate of these prevalent assemblages of object, method, and scientific self remains to be determined, yet as conditions of possibility they portend quite different futures. Following description of the assemblages, the article ventures a futuristic portrayal of the scientific practices they each might engender.

The European Commission as a Policy Entrepreneur under the European Semester

This article discusses the impact that the reforms of the European Union’s economic governance since 2011 have had on the European Commission’s role as a policy entrepreneur. Particular attention is paid to mechanisms that are applied by the Commission to extend its scope beyond its given formal competences to shape national reform agendas. The research interest is based on the assumption that the Commission is a ‘competence-maximising rational actor’ (Pollack, 1997), whose primary organisational goals are to expand the scope of Community competence and increase the Commission’s own standing within the policy process. Accordingly, this research contributes to the scholarly debate by identifying mechanisms applied by the Commission under the European Semester to shape European and national reform agendas in areas of sovereign policymaking competences of the member states.

The social dynamics of group offending

Theoretical explanations of group offending have been hindered by a focus on rational actor models of social relationships. One consequence of this has been a neglect of the dynamics of social relations and their role in group offending and desistance. Drawing illustratively on two studies conducted in the West of Scotland, this article advances an integrated theoretical framework for the comparative study of group offending that moves beyond either individualizing or ‘gang’ frames dominating existing discourse, towards a thick understanding of situated social relations. By integrating Bourdieu’s concept of habitus with Donati’s relational realist framework, this article theoretically and empirically examines the dynamics of group offending relationships, what shapes them and the way they can, in turn, shape and affect offending and desistance trajectories.

ALWAYS AT WAR: AN ANALYSIS OF FEAR IN CONTEMPORARY POLITICS

A culture always at war, America’s political discourse has become saturated with hatred and fear. The establishment media, which once thrived on gathering information, exists solely for anxiety promotion. Confirmation of our greatest fears, from economic collapse to nuclear annihilation, is projected unfiltered on every platform, tailored to match what scares us most. As we like and we share, our fears grow exponentially, leaving us stuck in a frozen state of paranoia. Fear is everywhere. We are afraid Trump will start a war with North Korea, relying on Kim Jong-Un to be a rational actor. We’re also afraid Kim will unleash his nuclear arsenal on America and rely on Trump’s rational diplomacy to keep international security in check. We’re afraid Trump is a Russian puppet and hope the Mueller probe will save us from the death of our democracy. We fear the political goals of Democrats, who hope to overturn a legitimate election using a fake Russia investigation. We’re worried the fascist government will suppress free speech and we’re worried the government isn’t doing enough to suppress free speech to stop hate. There are too many guns for children to be safe, and not enough guns for teachers to protect us. We want to elect more women, people of color, LGBTQ individuals, and Muslims to preserve their rights. We fear women, people of color, LGBTQ individuals, and Muslims as we want to preserve our rights. We are afraid of migrants leaping into our borders and we are terrified of the government cracking down on innocent refugees on the border. As we hyperventilate over an infinite amount of threats, we lash out and grasp whatever form of defense lies closest.

Psychology of Transnational Terrorism and Extreme Political Conflict

Fear of transnational terrorism, along with a revitalization of sectarian nationalism, is sundering social and political consensus across the world. Can psychology help? The focus of this review is on the psychological and related social factors that instigate and sustain violent extremism and polarizing group conflict. I first describe the changing global landscape of transnational terrorism, encompassing mainly violent Islamist revivalism and resurgent racial and ethnic supremacism. Next, I explore the psychosocial nature of the devoted actor and rational actor frameworks, focusing on how sacred values, identity fusion, and social network dynamics motivate and maintain extreme violence. The psychology of the will to fight and die is illustrated in behavioral and brain studies with frontline combatants in Iraq, militant supporters in Morocco, and radicalizing populations in Spain. This is followed by a consideration of how to deal with value-driven conflicts and a discussion of how the Internet and social media encourage the propagation of polarized conflict.

Modelling producer behaviour in fixed route private transport services

Objectives: While fixed route private transport services have grown in prominence in the recent times, there is a dearth of models that specifically tackle pricing in it. The current study aims to model producer behaviour in this model, keeping in mind its peculiar physical characteristics. Methods: This study develops a rational-actor model of the behaviour of producers operating in this market. There is however, an added assumption of the heuristic of least perceptible difference to add behavioural realism to the model. Results: The predictions derived from the model developed in this study include repeated usage of a single type of round-trip for a non-zero interval of time, the convexity of expected-waiting time with respect to changes in prices and a negative relation between external (exogenous) demand at one-point of a path and the price charged at the other. Conclusion: Pricing in this market, due to physical factors, can exhibit unique features as modelled. Keywords: Private Transport; transport Pricing; producer behaviour in transport

What’s on the Human Mind? Decision Theory and Deterrence

Indeed, deterrence, as Freedman and Mazarr recount in this volume in respectively Chaps. 10.1007/978-94-6265-419-8_1 and 10.1007/978-94-6265-419-8_2, aims to dissuade an opponent from taking undesirable actions. Clear communication of demands (a red line for instance), coupled with a credible threat to inflict pain if necessary, and demonstration of resolve are some obvious essential elements for creating effective deterrence. Success crucially also depends on whether the opponent receives the intended signal, interprets it as intended, and has the perception that the message is congruent with reality, i.e., that the opponent can make good on her threats. Success furthermore assumes that the demands communicated are acceptable. If those prerequisites exist, theory suggests a rational actor will back down, after weighing the benefits of the envisioned actions versus the potential costs that may result when the threat is executed. This chapter offers a synthesis of insights that have appeared since the 1980s that fundamentally challenge that assumption of rationality. This contribution about the workings of the human mind concerns the various filters and cognitive shortcuts that colour the incoming stream of information and the processes to digest it and come to a decision.