Comparison of accuracy of prediction of postoperative mortality and morbidity between a new, parsimonious risk calculator (SURPAS) and the ACS Surgical Risk Calculator

2020 ◽  
Vol 219 (6) ◽  
pp. 1065-1072 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sina Khaneki ◽  
Michael R. Bronsert ◽  
William G. Henderson ◽  
Maryam Yazdanfar ◽  
Anne Lambert-Kerzner ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Postoperative Mortality ◽  
Risk Calculator ◽  
Surgical Risk ◽  
Mortality And Morbidity ◽  
Accuracy Of Prediction

scholarly journals Development of the Combined Assessment of Risk Encountered in Surgery (CARES) surgical risk calculator for prediction of postsurgical mortality and need for intensive care unit admission risk: a single-center retrospective study

BMJ Open ◽  
2018 ◽  
Vol 8 (3) ◽  
pp. e019427 ◽  
Author(s):  
Diana Xin Hui Chan ◽  
Yilin Eileen Sim ◽  
Yiong Huak Chan ◽  
Ruban Poopalalingam ◽  
Hairil Rizal Abdullah
Keyword(s):  
Intensive Care Unit ◽  
Intensive Care ◽  
Postoperative Mortality ◽  
Receiver Operating Curve ◽  
Risk Calculator ◽  
Data Set ◽  
Distribution Width ◽  
Surgical Risk ◽  
Icu Admission ◽  
Singapore General Hospital

IntroductionAccurate surgical risk prediction is paramount in clinical shared decision making. Existing risk calculators have limited value in local practice due to lack of validation, complexities and inclusion of non-routine variables.ObjectiveWe aim to develop a simple, locally derived and validated surgical risk calculator predicting 30-day postsurgical mortality and need for intensive care unit (ICU) stay (>24 hours) based on routinely collected preoperative variables. We postulate that accuracy of a clinical history-based scoring tool could be improved by including readily available investigations, such as haemoglobin level and red cell distribution width.MethodologyElectronic medical records of 90 785 patients, who underwent non-cardiac and non-neuro surgery between 1 January 2012 and 31 October 2016 in Singapore General Hospital, were retrospectively analysed. Patient demographics, comorbidities, laboratory results, surgical priority and surgical risk were collected. Outcome measures were death within 30 days after surgery and ICU admission. After excluding patients with missing data, the final data set consisted of 79 914 cases, which was divided randomly into derivation (70%) and validation cohort (30%). Multivariable logistic regression analysis was used to construct a single model predicting both outcomes using Odds Ratio (OR) of the risk variables. The ORs were then assigned ranks, which were subsequently used to construct the calculator.ResultsObserved mortality was 0.6%. The Combined Assessment of Risk Encountered in Surgery (CARES) surgical risk calculator, consisting of nine variables, was constructed. The area under the receiver operating curve (AUROC) in the derivation and validation cohorts for mortality were 0.934 (0.917–0.950) and 0.934 (0.912–0.956), respectively, while the AUROC for ICU admission was 0.863 (0.848–0.878) and 0.837 (0.808–0.868), respectively. CARES also performed better than the American Society of Anaesthesiologists-Physical Status classification in terms of AUROC comparison.ConclusionThe development of the CARES surgical risk calculator allows for a simplified yet accurate prediction of both postoperative mortality and need for ICU admission after surgery.

scholarly journals Frailty and emergency surgery in the elderly: Protocol of a prospective, multicenter study in Italy for evaluating perioperative outcome (The FRAILESEL Study)

F1000Research ◽  
2017 ◽  
Vol 6 ◽  
pp. 1162
Author(s):  
Gianluca Costa ◽  
Giulia Massa ◽  
Genoveffa Balducci ◽  
Barbara Frezza ◽  
Pietro Fransvea ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Outcome Measures ◽  
Emergency Surgery ◽  
Postoperative Mortality ◽  
Risk Scores ◽  
Secondary Outcome ◽  
Aged Patients ◽  
Term Outcome ◽  
Surgical Risk ◽  
Mortality And Morbidity ◽  
Multicenter Observational Study

Introduction: Improvements in living conditions and progress in medical management have resulted in better ​quality of life and longer life expectancy. Therefore, the number of older people undergoing surgery is increasing. Frailty is often described as a syndrome in aged patients where there is augmented vulnerability due to progressive loss of functional reserves. Studies suggest that frailty predisposes elderly to worsening outcome after surgery. Since emergency surgery is associated with higher mortality rates, it is paramount to have an accurate stratification of surgical risk in such patients. The aim of our study is to characterize the clinico-pathological findings, management, and short-term outcome of elderly patients undergoing emergency surgery. The secondary objectives are to evaluate the presence and influence of frailty and analyze the prognostic role of existing risk-scores. The final FRAILESEL protocol was approved by the Ethical Committee of “Sapienza” University of Rome, Italy. Methods and analysis: The FRAILESEL study is a nationwide, Italian, multicenter, observational study conducted through a resident-led model. Patients over 65 years of age who require emergency surgical procedures will be included in this study. The primary outcome measures are 30-day postoperative mortality and morbidity rates. The Clavien-Dindo classification system will be used to categorize complications. Secondary outcome measures include length of hospital stay, length of stay in intensive care unit, and the predictive value for morbidity and mortality of several frailty and surgical risk scores. The results of the FRAILESEL study will be disseminated through national and international conference presentations and peer-reviewed journals. The study is also registered at ClinicalTrials.gov (ClinicalTrials.gov Identifier: NCT02825082).

Correlation of perioperative risk scores with hospital costs in neurosurgical patients

2020 ◽  
Vol 132 (3) ◽  
pp. 818-824
Author(s):  
Sasha Vaziri ◽  
Joseph M. Abbatematteo ◽  
Max S. Fleisher ◽  
Alexander B. Dru ◽  
Dennis T. Lockney ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Surgical Site Infection ◽  
Hospital Costs ◽  
Patient Characteristics ◽  
Risk Scores ◽  
Site Infection ◽  
Risk Calculator ◽  
Surgical Risk ◽  
Acs Nsqip ◽  
Neurosurgical Patients ◽  
Predicted Risk

OBJECTIVEThe American College of Surgeons (ACS) National Surgical Quality Improvement Program (NSQIP) online surgical risk calculator uses inherent patient characteristics to provide predictive risk scores for adverse postoperative events. The purpose of this study was to determine if predicted perioperative risk scores correlate with actual hospital costs.METHODSA single-center retrospective review of 1005 neurosurgical patients treated between September 1, 2011, and December 31, 2014, was performed. Individual patient characteristics were entered into the NSQIP calculator. Predicted risk scores were compared with actual in-hospital costs obtained from a billing database. Correlational statistics were used to determine if patients with higher risk scores were associated with increased in-hospital costs.RESULTSThe Pearson correlation coefficient (R) was used to assess the correlation between 11 types of predicted complication risk scores and 5 types of encounter costs from 1005 health encounters involving neurosurgical procedures. Risk scores in categories such as any complication, serious complication, pneumonia, cardiac complication, surgical site infection, urinary tract infection, venous thromboembolism, renal failure, return to operating room, death, and discharge to nursing home or rehabilitation facility were obtained. Patients with higher predicted risk scores in all measures except surgical site infection were found to have a statistically significant association with increased actual in-hospital costs (p < 0.0005).CONCLUSIONSPrevious work has demonstrated that the ACS NSQIP surgical risk calculator can accurately predict mortality after neurosurgery but is poorly predictive of other potential adverse events and clinical outcomes. However, this study demonstrates that predicted high-risk patients identified by the ACS NSQIP surgical risk calculator have a statistically significant moderate correlation to increased actual in-hospital costs. The NSQIP calculator may not accurately predict the occurrence of surgical complications (as demonstrated previously), but future iterations of the ACS universal risk calculator may be effective in predicting actual in-hospital costs, which could be advantageous in the current value-based healthcare environment.

Inadequate prediction of postoperative complications in breast cancer surgery: An evaluation of the ACS Surgical Risk Calculator

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Miguel A. Gonzalez‐Woge ◽  
Karla S. Martin‐Tellez ◽  
Ricardo Gonzalez‐Woge ◽  
Kevin Teran‐De‐la‐Sancha ◽  
Marco Rosa‐Abaroa ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Breast Cancer ◽  
Postoperative Complications ◽  
Cancer Surgery ◽  
Breast Cancer Surgery ◽  
Risk Calculator ◽  
Surgical Risk

scholarly journals Acute and Short-Term Outcomes of Percutaneous Transcatheter Mitral Valve Replacement in Children

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Nicola Maschietto ◽  
Ashwin Prakash ◽  
Pedro del Nido ◽  
Diego Porras
Keyword(s):  
Mitral Valve ◽  
Valve Replacement ◽  
Mitral Valve Replacement ◽  
Pediatric Patients ◽  
Surgical Techniques ◽  
Postoperative Mortality ◽  
Surgical Risk ◽  
Transcatheter Mitral Valve Replacement ◽  
High Surgical Risk ◽  
Valve In Valve

Background: Despite the improvement of surgical techniques for mitral valve (MV) repair in children, mitral valve replacement (MVR) is sometimes still necessary. MVR and redo-MVR continue to be burdened by early postoperative mortality and long-term morbidity with only about 75% of these patients being alive or transplant-free 10 years after the initial MVR. Although transcatheter MVR (TMVR) is a well-established intervention in high surgical risk adults, only a few pediatric valve-in-valve case reports have been published. The purpose of this study was to describe our initial experience with the off-label use of the Sapien S3 valve for TMVR in a highly selected pediatric patient population. Methods: We conducted a retrospective analysis of pediatric patients who underwent TMVR at Boston Children’s Hospital between October 2018 and July 2020. Results: Eight consecutive high surgical risk pediatric patients (median age, 9 years; range, 8–15) underwent TMVR (7 as valve-in-valve, 1 in a native MV). Each patient previously underwent multiple MV surgeries or MVR (median 4, range 2–5) and was highly symptomatic (Ross functional class 3 or 4). The indication for TMVR was mitral stenosis in 4 patients, regurgitation in 1, and mixed disease in 3. TMVR was successful in each patient, effectively reduced the left atrium and pulmonary hypertension ( P =0.012 and 0.043 respectively), and was carried out without significant complications. Conclusions: TMVR is an attractive alternative to MVR in high surgical risk patients. In this small series, TMVR was acutely effective and safe, with very encouraging early results.

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