Stock trend prediction based on a new status box method and AdaBoost probabilistic support vector machine

2016 ◽  
Vol 49 ◽  
pp. 385-398 ◽  
Author(s):  
Xiao-dan Zhang ◽  
Ang Li ◽  
Ran Pan
2017 ◽  
Vol 3 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
R. Hadapiningradja Kusumodestoni ◽  
Sarwido Sarwido

There are many types of investments to make money, one of which is in the form of shares. Shares is a trading company dealing with securities in the global capital markets. Stock Exchange or also called stock market is actually the activities of private companies in the form of buying and selling investments. To avoid losses in investing, we need a model of predictive analysis with high accuracy and supported by data - lots of data and accurately. The correct techniques in the analysis will be able to reduce the risk for investors in investing. There are many models used in the analysis of stock price movement prediction, in this study the researchers used models of neural networks (NN) and a model of support vector machine (SVM). Based on the background of the problems that have been mentioned in the previous description it can be formulated the problem as follows: need an algorithm that can predict stock prices, and need a high accuracy rate by adding a data set on the prediction, two algorithms will be investigated expected results last researchers can deduce where the algorithm accuracy rate predictions are the highest or accurate, then the purpose of this study was to mengkomparasi or compare between the two algorithms are algorithms Neural Network algorithm and Support Vector Machine which later on the end result has an accuracy rate forecast stock prices highest to see the error value RMSEnya. After doing research using the model of neural network and model of support vector machine (SVM) to predict the stock using the data value of the shares on the stock index hongkong dated July 20, 2016 at 16:26 pm until the date of 15 September 2016 at 17:40 pm as many as 729 data sets within an interval of 5 minute through a process of training, learning, and then continue the process of testing so the result is that by using a neural network model of the prediction accuracy of 0.503 +/- 0.009 (micro 503) while using the model of support vector machine (SVM) accuracy of the predictions for 0477 + / - 0.008 (micro: 0477) so that after a comparison can be concluded that the neural network models have trend prediction accuracy higher than the model of support vector machine (SVM).


2011 ◽  
Vol 137 ◽  
pp. 440-444 ◽  
Author(s):  
Zhi Yong Wu ◽  
Zeng Bing Xu ◽  
Ming Gao

A novel prediction method which combined evolutionary strategy with least-square support vector machine is presented and applied to the trend prediction of hydraulic liquid leakage in this paper. In order to improve the prediction performance, the evolutionary strategy is employed to optimize the internal parameters of least-square support vector machine. Through the experiment study, the result validated the effectiveness of the prediction method, and it is also demonstrated that the method is able to do the short-term fault prediction for the hydraulic system.


Author(s):  
Simon Demers

Abstract:The predictive performance of various team metrics is compared in the context of 105 best-of-seven national hockey league (NHL) playoff series that took place between 2008 and 2014 inclusively. This analysis provides renewed support for traditional box score statistics such as goal differential, especially in the form of Pythagorean expectations. A parsimonious relevance vector machine (RVM) learning approach is compared with the more common support vector machine (SVM) algorithm. Despite the potential of the RVM approach, the SVM algorithm proved to be superior in the context of hockey playoffs. The probabilistic SVM results are used to derive playoff performance expectations for NHL teams and identify playoff under-achievers and over-achievers. The results suggest that the Arizona Coyotes and the Carolina Hurricanes can both be considered Round 2 over-achievers while the Nashville Predators would be Round 2 under-achievers, even after accounting for several observable team performance metrics and playoff predictors. The Vancouver Canucks came the closest to qualify as Stanley Cup Finals under-achievers after they lost against the Boston Bruins in 2011. Overall, the results tend to support the idea that the NHL fields extremely competitive playoff teams, that chance or other intangible factors play a significant role in NHL playoff outcomes and that playoff upsets will continue to occur regularly.


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