A new-structure grey Verhulst model for China’s tight gas production forecasting

2020 ◽  
Vol 96 ◽  
pp. 106600 ◽  
Author(s):  
Bo Zeng ◽  
Xin Ma ◽  
Meng Zhou
Keyword(s):  
Gas Production ◽  
Tight Gas ◽  
Production Forecasting ◽  
Grey Verhulst Model ◽  
Verhulst Model

The Use of Rate-Transient-Analysis Modeling To Quantify Uncertainties in Commingled Tight Gas Production-Forecasting and Decline-Analysis Parameters in the Alberta Deep Basin

2014 ◽  
Vol 17 (02) ◽  
pp. 209-219 ◽  
Author(s):  
H.. Luo ◽  
G.F.. F. Mahiya ◽  
S.. Pannett ◽  
P.. Benham
Keyword(s):  
Transient Analysis ◽  
Early Time ◽  
Gas Production ◽  
Tight Gas ◽  
Well Performance ◽  
Deep Basin ◽  
Type Curves ◽  
Production Forecasting ◽  
Rate Transient Analysis ◽  
Production History

Summary The evaluation of expected ultimate recovery (EUR) for tight gas wells has generally relied upon the Arps equation for decline-curve analysis (DCA) as a popular approach. However, it is typical in tight gas reservoirs to have limited production history that has yet to reach boundary-dominated flow because of the low permeability of such systems. Commingled production makes the situation even more complicated with multiboundary behavior. When suitable analogs are not available, rate-transient analysis (RTA) can play an important role to justify DCA assumptions for production forecasting. The Deep-basin East field has been developed with hydraulically fractured vertical wells through commingled production from multiple formations since 2002. To evaluate potential of this field, DCA type curves for various areas were established according to well performance and geological trending. Multiple-segment DCA methodology demonstrated reasonable forecasts, in which one Arps equation is used to describe the rapidly decreasing transient period in early time and another equation is used for boundary-dominated flow. However, a limitation of this approach is the uncertainty of the forecast in the absence of extended production data because the EUR can be sensitive to adjustments in some assumed DCA parameters of the second segment. In this paper, we used RTA to assess reservoir and fracture properties in multiple layers and built RTA-type well models around which uncertainty analyses were performed. The distributions of the model properties were then used in Monte Carlo analysis to forecast production and define uncertainty ranges for EUR and DCA parameters. The resulting forecasts and EUR distribution from RTA modeling generally support the DCA assumptions used for the type curves for corresponding areas of the field. The study also showed how the contribution from the various commingled layers changes with time. The proposed workflow provides a fit-for-purpose way to quantify uncertainties in tight gas production forecasting, especially for cases when production history is limited and field-level numerical simulation is not practicable.

Integrated Subsurface to Surface Modeling to Assess Reservoir Uncertainty Quantification to A Carbonate Reservoir

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
A. Chaterine
Keyword(s):  
Uncertainty Quantification ◽  
Gas Production ◽  
Carbonate Reservoir ◽  
Production Volume ◽  
Production Forecast ◽  
Uncertainty Range ◽  
Field Development ◽  
Production Forecasting ◽  
Production Scheme ◽  
Rock Compressibility

This study accommodates subsurface uncertainties analysis and quantifies the effects on surface production volume to propose the optimal future field development. The problem of well productivity is sometimes only viewed from the surface components themselves, where in fact the subsurface component often has a significant effect on these production figures. In order to track the relationship between surface and subsurface, a model that integrates both must be created. The methods covered integrated asset modeling, probability forecasting, uncertainty quantification, sensitivity analysis, and optimization forecast. Subsurface uncertainties examined were : reservoir closure, regional segmentation, fluid contact, and SCAL properties. As the Integrated Asset Modeling is successfully conducted and a matched model is obtained for the gas-producing carbonate reservoir, highlights of the method are the following: 1) Up to ± 75% uncertainty range of reservoir parameters yields various production forecasting scenario using BHP control with the best case obtained is 335 BSCF of gas production and 254.4 MSTB of oil production, 2) SCAL properties and pseudo-faults are the most sensitive subsurface uncertainty that gives major impact to the production scheme, 3) EOS modeling and rock compressibility modeling must be evaluated seriously as those contribute significantly to condensate production and the field’s revenue, and 4) a proposed optimum production scenario for future development of the field with 151.6 BSCF gas and 414.4 MSTB oil that yields a total NPV of 218.7 MMUSD. The approach and methods implemented has been proven to result in more accurate production forecast and reduce the project cost as the effect of uncertainty reduction.

Natural fractures in tight gas sandstones: a case study of the Upper Triassic Xujiahe Formation in Xinchang gas field, Western Sichuan Basin, China

2021 ◽  
pp. 1-18
Author(s):  
Yunzhao Zhang ◽  
Lianbo Zeng ◽  
Wenya Lyu ◽  
Dongsheng Sun ◽  
Shuangquan Chen ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Production Capacity ◽  
Gas Production ◽  
Upper Triassic ◽  
Tight Gas ◽  
Natural Fractures ◽  
Carbon And Oxygen Isotopes ◽  
Gas Field ◽  
Xujiahe Formation ◽  
Western Sichuan ◽  
Tight Gas Reservoir

Abstract The Upper Triassic Xujiahe Formation is a typical tight gas reservoir in which natural fractures determine the migration, accumulation and production capacity of tight gas. In this study, we focused on the influences of natural fractures on the tight gas migration and production. We clarified characteristics and attributes (i.e. dips, apertures, filling degree and cross-cutting relationships) of the fractures based on image logging interpretations and core descriptions. Previous studies of electron spin resonance, carbon and oxygen isotopes, homogenization temperature of fluid inclusions analysis and basin simulation were considered. This study also analysed the fracture sequences, source of fracture fillings, diagenetic sequences and tight gas enrichment stages. We obtained insight into the relationship between fracture evolution and hydrocarbon charging, particularly the effect of the apertures and intensity of natural fractures on tight gas production. We reveal that the bedding fractures are short horizontal migration channels of tight gas. The tectonic fractures with middle, high and nearly vertical angles are beneficial to tight gas vertical migration. The apertures of fractures are controlled by the direction of maximum principal stress and fracture angle. The initial gas production of the vertical wells presents a positive correlation with the fracture abundance, and the intensity and aperture of fractures are the fundamental factors that determine the tight gas production. With these findings, this study is expected to guide the future exploration and development of tight gas with similar geological backgrounds.

scholarly journals Unconventional Gas Production from Hydraulically Fractured Well-An Application of Direct Search Based Optimization Algorithm

2019 ◽  
Vol 8 (2S11) ◽  
pp. 2726-2737
Keyword(s):  
Objective Function ◽  
Fracture Propagation ◽  
Gas Production ◽  
Production Model ◽  
Tight Gas ◽  
Gas Reservoirs ◽  
Unconventional Gas ◽  
Fracture Geometry ◽  
Propagation Behavior ◽  
Fractured Well

Unconventional gas reservoirs are now the targets for meeting the demand for gas. These reservoirs are at the depth of more than 10,000 ft (even over 15000 depth as well) and are difficult to be exploited by conventional methods. For the last decades hydraulic fracturing has become the tool to develop these resources. Mathematical models (2D and pseudo-3D) have been developed for fracture geometry, which should be realistically created at the depth by surface controllable treatment parameters. If the reservoir rock is sandstone, then proppant fracturing is suitable and if the rock is carbonates, then acid fracturing is applicable. In both cases, proper design of controllable treatment parameters within constraints is essential. This needs proper optimization model which gives real controllable parametric vales. The model needs the most important analyses from geomechanical study and linear elastic fracture mechanics of rock containing unconventional gas so that fracture geometry makes maximum contact with the reservoirs for maximum recovery. Currently available software may lack proper optimization scheme containing geomechanical stress model, fracture geometry, natural fracture interactions, real field constraints and proper reservoir engineering model of unconventional gas resources, that is, production model from hydraulically fractured well (vertical and horizontal). An optimization algorithm has been developed to integrate all the modules, as mentioned above, controllable parameters, field constraints and production model with an objective function of maximum production (with or without minimization of treatment cost). Optimization is basically developed based on Direct Search Genetic and Polytope algorithm, which can handle dual objective function, non-differentiable equations, discontinuity and non-linearity. A dual objective function will meet operator’s economic requirements and investigate conflict between two objectives. The integrated model can be applied to a vertical or horizontal well in tight gas or ultra-tight shale gas deeper than over 10,000 ft. A simulation (with industrial simulators) was conducted to investigate and analyse fracture propagation behavior, under varying parameters with respect to the fracture design process, for tight gas reservoirs. Results indicate that hydraulic fracture propagation behavior is not uninhibited in deep reservoirs as some may believe that minor variations of variables such as in-situ stress, fluid properties etc. are often detrimental to fracture propagation in some conditions. Application of this model to a hypothetical tight and ultra-tight unconventional gas formations indicates a significant gas production at lower treatment cost; whereas the resources do not flow without any stimulation (hydraulic fracturing).

Diffusion and Flow Mechanisms of Shale Gas through Matrix Pores and Gas Production Forecasting

2013 ◽  
Author(s):  
Juntai Shi ◽  
Lei Zhang ◽  
Yuansheng Li ◽  
Wei Yu ◽  
Xiangnan He ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Shale Gas ◽  
Gas Production ◽  
Production Forecasting ◽  
Flow Mechanisms

Advanced Well Completion Strategies to Improve Gas Production Deliverability in Marginal Tight Gas Reservoirs from an Onshore Abu Dhabi Gas Field

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Hajar Ali Abdulla Al Shehhi ◽  
Bondan Bernadi ◽  
Alia Belal Zuwaid Belal Al Shamsi ◽  
Shamma Jasem Al Hammadi ◽  
Fatima Omar Alawadhi ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Hydraulic Fracturing ◽  
Horizontal Wells ◽  
Gas Production ◽  
Abu Dhabi ◽  
Tight Gas ◽  
Production Rates ◽  
Well Productivity ◽  
Gas Saturation ◽  
Well Design ◽  
The Impact

Abstract Reservoir X is a marginal tight gas condensate reservoir located in Abu Dhabi with permeability of less than 0.05 mD. The field was conventionally developed with a few single horizontal wells, though sharp production decline was observed due to rapid pressure depletion. This study investigates the impact of converting the existing single horizontal wells into single long horizontal, dual laterals, triple laterals, fishbone design and hydraulic fracturing in improving well productivity. The existing wells design modifications were planned using a near reservoir simulator. The study evaluated the impact of length, trajectory, number of laterals and perforation intervals. For Single, dual, and triple lateral wells, additional simulation study with hydraulic fracturing was carried out. To evaluate and obtain effective comparisons, sector models with LGR was built to improve the simulation accuracy in areas near the wellbore. The study conducted a detailed investigation into the impact of various well designs on the well productivity. It was observed that maximizing the reservoir contact and targeting areas with high gas saturation led to significant increase in the well productivity. The simulation results revealed that longer laterals led to higher gas production rates. Dual lateral wells showed improved productivity when compared to single lateral wells. This incremental gain in the production was attributed to increased contact with the reservoir. The triple lateral well design yielded higher productivity compared to single and dual lateral wells. Hydraulic fracturing for single, dual, and triple lateral wells showed significant improvement in the gas production rates and reduced condensate banking near the wellbore. A detailed investigation into the fishbone design was carried out, this involved running sensitivity runs by varying the number of branches. Fishbone design showed considerable increment in production when compared to other well designs This paper demonstrates that increasing the reservoir contact and targeting specific areas of the reservoir with high gas saturation can lead to significant increase in the well productivity. The study also reveals that having longer and multiple laterals in the well leads to higher production rates. Hydraulic fracturing led to higher production gains. Fishbone well design with its multiple branches showed the most production again when compared to other well designs.

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