scholarly journals Long-term sea-level projections with two versions of a global climate model of intermediate complexity and the corresponding changes in the Earth's gravity field

2007 ◽  
Vol 33 (8) ◽  
pp. 1036-1051 ◽  
Author(s):  
O. Makarynskyy ◽  
M. Kuhn ◽  
W.E. Featherstone
2014 ◽  
Vol 7 (6) ◽  
pp. 8975-9015
Author(s):  
E. M. Knudsen ◽  
J. E. Walsh

Abstract. Metrics of storm activity in Northern Hemisphere high- and midlatitudes are evaluated from historical output and future projections by the Norwegian Earth System Model (NorESM1-M) coupled global climate model. The European Re-Analysis Interim (ERA-Interim) and the Community Climate System Model (CCSM4), a global climate model of the same vintage as NorESM1-M, provide benchmarks for comparison. The focus is on the autumn and early winter (September through December), the period when the ongoing and projected Arctic sea ice retreat is greatest. Storm tracks derived from a vorticity-based algorithm for storm identification are reproduced well by NorESM1-M, although the tracks are somewhat better resolved in the higher-resolution ERA-Interim and CCSM4. The tracks are projected to shift polewards in the future as climate changes under the Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) forcing scenarios. Cyclones are projected to become generally more intense in the high-latitudes, especially over the Alaskan region, although in some other areas the intensity is projected to decrease. While projected changes in track density are less coherent, there is a general tendency towards less frequent storms in midlatitudes and more frequent storms in high-latitudes, especially the Baffin Bay/Davis Strait region. Autumn precipitation is projected to increase significantly across the entire high-latitudes. Together with the projected increases in storm intensity and sea level and the loss of sea ice, this increase in precipitation implies a greater vulnerability to coastal flooding and erosion, especially in the Alaskan region. The projected changes in storm intensity and precipitation (as well as sea ice and sea level pressure) scale generally linearly with the RCP value of the forcing and with time through the 21st century.


2019 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mario Krapp ◽  
Robert Beyer ◽  
Stephen L. Edmundson ◽  
Paul J. Valdes ◽  
Andrea Manica

Abstract. A detailed and accurate reconstruction of the past climate is essential in understanding the interactions between ecosystems and their environment through time. We know that climatic drivers have shaped the distribution and evolution of species, including our own, and their habitats. Yet, spatially-detailed climate reconstructions that continuously cover the Quaternary do not exist. This is mainly because no paleoclimate model can reconstruct regional-scale dynamics over geological time scales. Here we develop a statistical emulator, the Global Climate Model Emulator (GCMET), which reconstructs the climate of the last 800 000 years with unprecedented spatial detail. GCMET captures the temporal dynamics of glacial-interglacial climates as an Earth System Model of Intermediate Complexity would whilst resolving the local dynamics with the accuracy of a Global Climate Model. It provides a new, unique resource to explore the climate of the Quaternary, which we use to investigate the long-term stability of major habitat types. We identify a number of stable pockets of habitat that have remained unchanged over the last 800 thousand years, acting as potential long-term evolutionary refugia. Thus, the highly detailed, comprehensive overview of climatic changes through time delivered by GCMET provides the needed resolution to quantify the role of long term habitat change and fragmentation in an ecological and anthropological context.


2016 ◽  
Author(s):  
Michiel Helsen ◽  
Roderik Van de Wal ◽  
Thomas Reerink ◽  
Richard Bintanja ◽  
Marianne Sloth Madsen ◽  
...  

Abstract. The albedo of the surface of ice sheets changes as a function of time, due to the effects of deposition of new snow, ageing of dry snow, melting and runoff. Currently, the calculation of the albedo of ice sheets is highly parameterized within the Earth System Model EC-Earth, by taking a constant value for areas with thick perennial snow cover. This is one of the reasons that the surface mass balance (SMB) of the Greenland ice sheet (GrIS) is poorly resolved in the model. To improve this, eight snow albedo schemes are evaluated here. The resulting SMB is downscaled from the lower resolution global climate model topography to the higher resolution ice sheet topography of the GrIS, such that the influence of these different SMB climatologies on the long-term evolution of the GrIS is tested by ice sheet model simulations. This results in an optimised albedo parameterization that can be used in future EC-Earth simulations with an interactive ice sheet component.


2014 ◽  
Vol 53 (9) ◽  
pp. 2163-2170 ◽  
Author(s):  
Peter Guttorp ◽  
Alex Januzzi ◽  
Marie Novak ◽  
Harry Podschwit ◽  
Lee Richardson ◽  
...  

AbstractThe process of moving from an ensemble of global climate model temperature projections to local sea level projections requires several steps. Sea level was estimated in Olympia, Washington (a city that is very concerned with sea level rise because parts of downtown are barely above mean highest high tide), by relating global mean temperature to global sea level; relating global sea level to sea levels at Seattle, Washington; and finally relating Seattle to Olympia. There has long been a realization that accurate assessment of the precision of projections is needed for science-based policy decisions. When a string of statistical and/or deterministic models is connected, the uncertainty of each individual model needs to be accounted for. Here the uncertainty is quantified for each model in the described system and the total uncertainty is assessed in a cascading effect throughout the system. The projected sea level rise over time and its total estimated uncertainty are visualized simultaneously for the years 2000–2100, the increased uncertainty due to each of the component models at a particular projection year is identified, and estimates of the time at which a certain sea level rise will first be reached are made.


2016 ◽  
Vol 9 (7) ◽  
pp. 2335-2355 ◽  
Author(s):  
Erlend M. Knudsen ◽  
John E. Walsh

Abstract. Metrics of storm activity in Northern Hemisphere high and midlatitudes are evaluated from historical output and future projections by the Norwegian Earth System Model (NorESM1-M) coupled global climate model. The European Re-Analysis Interim (ERA-Interim) and the Community Climate System Model (CCSM4), a global climate model of the same vintage as NorESM1-M, provide benchmarks for comparison. The focus is on the autumn and early winter (September through December) – the period when the ongoing and projected Arctic sea ice retreat is the greatest. Storm tracks derived from a vorticity-based algorithm for storm identification are reproduced well by NorESM1-M, although the tracks are somewhat better resolved in the higher-resolution ERA-Interim and CCSM4. The tracks show indications of shifting polewards in the future as climate changes under the Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) forcing scenarios. Cyclones are projected to become generally more intense in the high latitudes, especially over the Alaskan region, although in some other areas the intensity is projected to decrease. While projected changes in track density are less coherent, there is a general tendency towards less frequent storms in midlatitudes and more frequent storms in high latitudes, especially the Baffin Bay/Davis Strait region in September. Autumn precipitation is projected to increase significantly across the entire high latitudes. Together with the projected loss of sea ice and increases in storm intensity and sea level, this increase in precipitation implies a greater vulnerability to coastal flooding and erosion, especially in the Alaskan region. The projected changes in storm intensity and precipitation (as well as sea ice and sea level pressure) scale generally linearly with the RCP value of the forcing and with time through the 21st century.


2017 ◽  
Vol 11 (4) ◽  
pp. 1949-1965 ◽  
Author(s):  
Michiel M. Helsen ◽  
Roderik S. W. van de Wal ◽  
Thomas J. Reerink ◽  
Richard Bintanja ◽  
Marianne S. Madsen ◽  
...  

Abstract. The albedo of the surface of ice sheets changes as a function of time due to the effects of deposition of new snow, ageing of dry snow, bare ice exposure, melting and run-off. Currently, the calculation of the albedo of ice sheets is highly parameterized within the earth system model EC-Earth by taking a constant value for areas with thick perennial snow cover. This is an important reason why the surface mass balance (SMB) of the Greenland ice sheet (GrIS) is poorly resolved in the model. The purpose of this study is to improve the SMB forcing of the GrIS by evaluating different parameter settings within a snow albedo scheme. By allowing ice-sheet albedo to vary as a function of wet and dry conditions, the spatial distribution of albedo and melt rate improves. Nevertheless, the spatial distribution of SMB in EC-Earth is not significantly improved. As a reason for this, we identify omissions in the current snow albedo scheme, such as separate treatment of snow and ice and the effect of refreezing. The resulting SMB is downscaled from the lower-resolution global climate model topography to the higher-resolution ice-sheet topography of the GrIS, such that the influence of these different SMB climatologies on the long-term evolution of the GrIS is tested by ice-sheet model simulations. From these ice-sheet simulations we conclude that an albedo scheme with a short response time of decaying albedo during wet conditions performs best with respect to long-term simulated ice-sheet volume. This results in an optimized albedo parameterization that can be used in future EC-Earth simulations with an interactive ice-sheet component.


2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Douglas Morrison ◽  
Ian Crawford ◽  
Nicholas Marsden ◽  
Michael Flynn ◽  
Katie Read ◽  
...  

Abstract. Observations of the long-range transport of biological particles in the tropics via dust vectors are now seen as fundamental to the understanding of many global atmosphere-oceanic biogeochemical cycles, changes in air quality, human health, ecosystem impacts, and climate. However, there is a lack of long-term measurements quantifying their presence in such conditions. Here we present annual observations of bioaerosol concentrations based on online ultraviolet light induced fluorescence (UV-LIF) spectrometry from the global WMO/Global Atmospheric Watch (GAW) observatory on Sao Vicente Cape Verde Atmospheric Observatory. We observe the expected strong seasonal changes in absolute concentrations of bioaerosols with significant enhancements during winter due to the strong island inflow of airmass, originating from the African continent. Monthly median bioaerosol concentrations as high as 45 L−1 were found with 95th percentile values exceeding 130 L−1 during strong dust events. However, in contrast the relative fraction of bioaerosol numbers compared to total dust number concentration shows little seasonal variation. Mean bioaerosol contributions accounted for 0.4 ± 0.2 % of total coarse aerosol concentrations, only rarely exceeding 1 % during particularly strong events under appropriate conditions. Although enhancements in the median bioaerosol fraction do occur in winter, they also occur at other times of the year, likely due to the enhanced Aeolian activity driving dust events at this time from different sources. We hypothesise that this indicates the relative contribution of bioaerosol material in dust transported across the tropical Atlantic throughout the year is relatively uniform, comprised mainly of mixtures of dust and bacteria and/or bacterial fragments. We argue that this hypothesis is supported from analysis of measurements also at Cape Verde just prior to the long-term monitoring experiment where UV-LIF single particle measurements were compared with Laser Ablation Aerosol Particle Time of Flight mass spectrometer (LAAP-ToF) measurements. These clearly show a very high correlation between particles with mixed bio-silicate mass spectral signatures and UV-LIF bio-fluorescent signatures suggesting the bioaerosol concentrations are dominated by these mixtures. These observations should assist with constraining bioaerosol concentrations for tropical Global Climate Model (GCM) simulations. Note here we use the term “bioaerosol” to include mixtures of dust and bacterial material.


2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sophie Nuber ◽  
James Rae ◽  
Morten Andersen ◽  
Xu Zhang ◽  
Bas de Boer ◽  
...  

Abstract The Indian Ocean has been proposed as an important source of salt for North Atlantic deep-water convection sites, via the Agulhas Leakage, and may thus drive changes in the ocean’s overturning circulation. However, while past changes in Agulhas leakage volume have been explored, little is known about this water’s salt content, representing a major gap in our understanding of Agulhas salinity supply. Here, we present new planktonic foraminiferal Mg/Ca-derived sea surface temperatures (SST) and stable isotope-derived salinity reconstructions for the last 1.2Ma from the western Indian Ocean source waters of the Agulhas Leakage to investigate glacial-interglacial changes in surface water properties. We find that SST and relative salinity both increase during glaciation, leading to high salinity and SST during glacial maxima. We show that the onset of surface salinification and warming in the Indian Ocean occurs during a phase of rapid land-bridge exposure in the Indonesian archipelago induced by sea level lowering. We link these findings to new global climate model results which show that the export of salt from the Indian Ocean via the Agulhas Leakage can directly impact the deglacial Atlantic meridional overturning circulation and therefore global climate.


2021 ◽  
Vol 18 ◽  
pp. 157-167
Author(s):  
Réka Suga ◽  
Otília A. Megyeri-Korotaj ◽  
Gabriella Allaga-Zsebeházi

Abstract. In the framework of the KlimAdat national project, the Hungarian Meteorological Service (OMSZ) is aiming to perform 10 km horizontal resolution simulations with the 2015 version of the REMO regional climate model over Central and Eastern Europe. The long-term simulations were preceded by a 10-year long sensitivity study on domain size, which is summarised in this paper. We selected three different domains embedded in each other, which contain the whole area of the Danube and Tisza river catchments. Lateral boundary conditions were obtained from the 50 km resolution REMO driven by the MPI-ESM-LR global climate model. Simulations were performed for the period of 1970–1980 including 1-year spin-up. Monthly and seasonal means of daily 2 m temperature, precipitation sum and several precipitation indices were evaluated. Reference datasets were E-OBS 19.0 and CarpatClim-HU. We can conclude, that the selection of domain size has a larger impact on the simulation of precipitation, and in the case of the seasonal mean of the precipitation indices, the differences amongst the results obtained on each model domain exceed 10 %. In general, the smallest biases occurred on the largest domain, therefore further long-term simulations are being produced on this domain.


2015 ◽  
Vol 8 (12) ◽  
pp. 10677-10710
Author(s):  
P. B. Holden ◽  
N. R. Edwards ◽  
K. Fraedrich ◽  
E. Kirk ◽  
F. Lunkeit ◽  
...  

Abstract. We describe the development, tuning and climate of PLASIM-GENIE, a new intermediate complexity Atmosphere–Ocean Global Climate Model (AOGCM), built by coupling the Planet Simulator to the GENIE earth system model. PLASIM-GENIE supersedes "GENIE-2", a coupling of GENIE to the Reading IGCM. It has been developed to join the limited number of models that bridge the gap between EMICS with simplified atmospheric dynamics and state of the art AOGCMs. A 1000 year simulation with PLASIM-GENIE requires approximately two weeks on a single node of a 2.1 GHz AMD 6172 CPU. An important motivation for intermediate complexity models is the evaluation of uncertainty. We here demonstrate the tractability of PLASIM-GENIE ensembles by deriving a "subjective" tuning of the model with a 50 member ensemble of 1000 year simulations.


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