scholarly journals A comprehensive history of climate and habitat stability of the last 800&thinsp,000 years

2019 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mario Krapp ◽  
Robert Beyer ◽  
Stephen L. Edmundson ◽  
Paul J. Valdes ◽  
Andrea Manica
Keyword(s):  
Climate Model ◽  
Temporal Dynamics ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Global Climate Model ◽  
Regional Scale ◽  
Geological Time ◽  
Comprehensive Overview ◽  
Long Term Stability ◽  
History Of

Abstract. A detailed and accurate reconstruction of the past climate is essential in understanding the interactions between ecosystems and their environment through time. We know that climatic drivers have shaped the distribution and evolution of species, including our own, and their habitats. Yet, spatially-detailed climate reconstructions that continuously cover the Quaternary do not exist. This is mainly because no paleoclimate model can reconstruct regional-scale dynamics over geological time scales. Here we develop a statistical emulator, the Global Climate Model Emulator (GCMET), which reconstructs the climate of the last 800 000 years with unprecedented spatial detail. GCMET captures the temporal dynamics of glacial-interglacial climates as an Earth System Model of Intermediate Complexity would whilst resolving the local dynamics with the accuracy of a Global Climate Model. It provides a new, unique resource to explore the climate of the Quaternary, which we use to investigate the long-term stability of major habitat types. We identify a number of stable pockets of habitat that have remained unchanged over the last 800 thousand years, acting as potential long-term evolutionary refugia. Thus, the highly detailed, comprehensive overview of climatic changes through time delivered by GCMET provides the needed resolution to quantify the role of long term habitat change and fragmentation in an ecological and anthropological context.

AN EQUATION OF STATE FOR LAND SURFACE CLIMATES

2011 ◽  
Vol 21 (12) ◽  
pp. 3577-3587 ◽  
Author(s):  
KLAUS FRAEDRICH ◽  
FRANK SIELMANN
Keyword(s):  
Equation Of State ◽  
Land Surface ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Global Climate Model ◽  
Regional Scale ◽  
State Parameter ◽  
Lake Area ◽  
Rainfall Runoff ◽  
Change Analysis

A biased coinflip Ansatz provides a stochastic regional scale surface climate model of minimum complexity, which represents physical and stochastic properties of the rainfall–runoff chain. The solution yields the Schreiber–Budyko relation as an equation of state describing land surface vegetation, river runoff and lake areas in terms of physical flux ratios, which are associated with three thresholds. Validation of consistency and predictability within a Global Climate Model (GCM) environment demonstrates the stochastic rainfall–runoff chain to be a viable surrogate model for regional climate state averages and variabilites. A terminal (closed) lake area ratio is introduced as a new climate state parameter, which quantifies lake overflow as a threshold in separating water from energy limited climate regimes. A climate change analysis based on the IPCC A1B scenario is included for completeness.

scholarly journals Influence of albedo parameterization on surface mass balance in the perspective of Greenland ice sheet modelling in EC-Earth

2016 ◽  
Author(s):  
Michiel Helsen ◽  
Roderik Van de Wal ◽  
Thomas Reerink ◽  
Richard Bintanja ◽  
Marianne Sloth Madsen ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Mass Balance ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Global Climate Model ◽  
Ice Sheets ◽  
Ice Sheet ◽  
Greenland Ice Sheet ◽  
Surface Mass Balance ◽  
Surface Mass

Abstract. The albedo of the surface of ice sheets changes as a function of time, due to the effects of deposition of new snow, ageing of dry snow, melting and runoff. Currently, the calculation of the albedo of ice sheets is highly parameterized within the Earth System Model EC-Earth, by taking a constant value for areas with thick perennial snow cover. This is one of the reasons that the surface mass balance (SMB) of the Greenland ice sheet (GrIS) is poorly resolved in the model. To improve this, eight snow albedo schemes are evaluated here. The resulting SMB is downscaled from the lower resolution global climate model topography to the higher resolution ice sheet topography of the GrIS, such that the influence of these different SMB climatologies on the long-term evolution of the GrIS is tested by ice sheet model simulations. This results in an optimised albedo parameterization that can be used in future EC-Earth simulations with an interactive ice sheet component.

scholarly journals On the importance of the albedo parameterization for the mass balance of the Greenland ice sheet in EC-Earth

2017 ◽  
Vol 11 (4) ◽  
pp. 1949-1965 ◽  
Author(s):  
Michiel M. Helsen ◽  
Roderik S. W. van de Wal ◽  
Thomas J. Reerink ◽  
Richard Bintanja ◽  
Marianne S. Madsen ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Spatial Distribution ◽  
Mass Balance ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Global Climate Model ◽  
Ice Sheets ◽  
Ice Sheet ◽  
Greenland Ice Sheet ◽  
Snow Albedo

Abstract. The albedo of the surface of ice sheets changes as a function of time due to the effects of deposition of new snow, ageing of dry snow, bare ice exposure, melting and run-off. Currently, the calculation of the albedo of ice sheets is highly parameterized within the earth system model EC-Earth by taking a constant value for areas with thick perennial snow cover. This is an important reason why the surface mass balance (SMB) of the Greenland ice sheet (GrIS) is poorly resolved in the model. The purpose of this study is to improve the SMB forcing of the GrIS by evaluating different parameter settings within a snow albedo scheme. By allowing ice-sheet albedo to vary as a function of wet and dry conditions, the spatial distribution of albedo and melt rate improves. Nevertheless, the spatial distribution of SMB in EC-Earth is not significantly improved. As a reason for this, we identify omissions in the current snow albedo scheme, such as separate treatment of snow and ice and the effect of refreezing. The resulting SMB is downscaled from the lower-resolution global climate model topography to the higher-resolution ice-sheet topography of the GrIS, such that the influence of these different SMB climatologies on the long-term evolution of the GrIS is tested by ice-sheet model simulations. From these ice-sheet simulations we conclude that an albedo scheme with a short response time of decaying albedo during wet conditions performs best with respect to long-term simulated ice-sheet volume. This results in an optimized albedo parameterization that can be used in future EC-Earth simulations with an interactive ice-sheet component.

scholarly journals Influence of Twenty-First-Century Atmospheric and Sea Surface Temperature Forcing on West African Climate

2012 ◽  
Vol 25 (2) ◽  
pp. 527-542 ◽  
Author(s):  
Christopher B. Skinner ◽  
Moetasim Ashfaq ◽  
Noah S. Diffenbaugh
Keyword(s):  
West Africa ◽  
Radiative Forcing ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Global Climate Model ◽  
Regional Scale ◽  
Summer Precipitation ◽  
Global Scale ◽  
Boreal Summer ◽  
African Climate

Abstract The persistence of extended drought events throughout West Africa during the twentieth century has motivated a substantial effort to understand the mechanisms driving African climate variability as well as the possible response to elevated greenhouse gas (GHG) forcing. An ensemble of global climate model experiments is used to examine the relative roles of future direct atmospheric radiative forcing and SST forcing in shaping potential future changes in boreal summer precipitation over West Africa. The authors find that projected increases in precipitation throughout the western Sahel result primarily from direct atmospheric radiative forcing. The changes in atmospheric forcing generate a slight northward displacement and weakening of the African easterly jet (AEJ), a strengthening of westward monsoon flow onto West Africa, and an intensification of the tropical easterly jet (TEJ). Alternatively, the projected decreases in precipitation over much of the Guinea Coast region are caused by SST changes induced by the atmospheric radiative forcing. The changes in SSTs generate a weakening of the monsoon westerlies and the TEJ as well as a decrease in low-level convergence and resultant rising air throughout the midlevels of the troposphere. Experiments suggest a potential shift in the regional moisture balance of West Africa should global radiative forcing continue to increase, highlighting the importance of climate system feedbacks in shaping the response of regional-scale climate to global-scale changes in radiative forcing.

scholarly journals Future ecosystem changes in the Northeast Atlantic: a comparison between a global and a regional model system

2018 ◽  
Vol 75 (7) ◽  
pp. 2355-2369 ◽  
Author(s):  
Morten D Skogen ◽  
Solfrid S Hjøllo ◽  
Anne Britt Sandø ◽  
Jerry Tjiputra
Keyword(s):  
Climate Model ◽  
Spring Bloom ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Global Climate Model ◽  
Regional Scale ◽  
Regional Model ◽  
Global Model ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Co2 Uptake ◽  
The Future

Abstract The biogeochemistry from a global climate model (Norwegian Earth System Model) has been compared with results from a regional model (NORWECOM.E2E), where the regional model is forced by downscaled physics from the global model. The study should both be regarded as a direct comparison between a regional and its driving global model to investigate at what extent a global climate model can be used for regional studies, and a study of the future climate change in the Nordic and Barents Seas. The study concludes that the global and regional model compare well on trends, but many details are lost when a coarse resolution global model is used to assess climate impact on regional scale. The main difference between the two models is the timing of the spring bloom, and a non-exhaustive nutrient consumption in the global model in summer. The global model has a cold (in summer) and saline bias compared with climatology. This is both due to poorly resolved physical processes and oversimplified ecosystem parameterization. Through the downscaling the regional model is to some extent able to alleviate the bias in the physical fields, and the timing of the spring bloom is close to observations. The summer nutrient minimum is one month early. There is no trend in future primary production in any of the models, and the trends in modelled pH and ΩAr are also the same in both models. The largest discrepancy in the future projection is in the development of the CO2 uptake, where the regional suggests a slightly reduced uptake in the future.

scholarly journals Quantifying Bioaerosol Concentrations in Dust Clouds through Online UV-LIF and Mass Spectrometry Measurements at the Cape Verde Atmospheric Observatory

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Douglas Morrison ◽  
Ian Crawford ◽  
Nicholas Marsden ◽  
Michael Flynn ◽  
Katie Read ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Model ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Global Climate Model ◽  
Cape Verde ◽  
Ecosystem Impacts ◽  
Mass Spectral ◽  
Relative Contribution ◽  
Dust Events ◽  
Coarse Aerosol

Abstract. Observations of the long-range transport of biological particles in the tropics via dust vectors are now seen as fundamental to the understanding of many global atmosphere-oceanic biogeochemical cycles, changes in air quality, human health, ecosystem impacts, and climate. However, there is a lack of long-term measurements quantifying their presence in such conditions. Here we present annual observations of bioaerosol concentrations based on online ultraviolet light induced fluorescence (UV-LIF) spectrometry from the global WMO/Global Atmospheric Watch (GAW) observatory on Sao Vicente Cape Verde Atmospheric Observatory. We observe the expected strong seasonal changes in absolute concentrations of bioaerosols with significant enhancements during winter due to the strong island inflow of airmass, originating from the African continent. Monthly median bioaerosol concentrations as high as 45 L−1 were found with 95th percentile values exceeding 130 L−1 during strong dust events. However, in contrast the relative fraction of bioaerosol numbers compared to total dust number concentration shows little seasonal variation. Mean bioaerosol contributions accounted for 0.4 ± 0.2 % of total coarse aerosol concentrations, only rarely exceeding 1 % during particularly strong events under appropriate conditions. Although enhancements in the median bioaerosol fraction do occur in winter, they also occur at other times of the year, likely due to the enhanced Aeolian activity driving dust events at this time from different sources. We hypothesise that this indicates the relative contribution of bioaerosol material in dust transported across the tropical Atlantic throughout the year is relatively uniform, comprised mainly of mixtures of dust and bacteria and/or bacterial fragments. We argue that this hypothesis is supported from analysis of measurements also at Cape Verde just prior to the long-term monitoring experiment where UV-LIF single particle measurements were compared with Laser Ablation Aerosol Particle Time of Flight mass spectrometer (LAAP-ToF) measurements. These clearly show a very high correlation between particles with mixed bio-silicate mass spectral signatures and UV-LIF bio-fluorescent signatures suggesting the bioaerosol concentrations are dominated by these mixtures. These observations should assist with constraining bioaerosol concentrations for tropical Global Climate Model (GCM) simulations. Note here we use the term “bioaerosol” to include mixtures of dust and bacterial material.

scholarly journals Indigenous vegetation burning practices and their impact on the climate of the northern Australian monsoon region

2013 ◽  
Vol 10 (8) ◽  
pp. 10313-10332 ◽  
Author(s):  
K.-H. Wyrwoll ◽  
F. H. McRobie ◽  
M. Notaro ◽  
G. Chen
Keyword(s):  
Time Scales ◽  
Vegetation Cover ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Global Climate Model ◽  
Regional Scale ◽  
Northern Australia ◽  
Monsoon Region ◽  
The Impact

Abstract. Here we pose the question: was there a downturn in summer monsoon precipitation over northern Australia due to Aboriginal vegetation practices over prehistoric time scales? In answering this question we consider the results from a global climate model incorporating ocean, land, ice, atmosphere and vegetation interactions, reducing the total vegetation cover over northern Australia by 20% to simulate the effects of burning. The results suggest that burning forests and woodlands in the monsoon region of Australia led to a shift in the regional climate, with a delayed monsoon onset and reduced precipitation in the months preceding the "full" monsoon. We place these results in a global context, drawing on model results from five other monsoon regions, and note that although the precipitation response is highly varied, there is a general but region specific climate response to reduced vegetation cover in all cases. Our findings lead us to conclude that large-scale vegetation modification over millennial time-scales due to indigenous burning practices, would have had significant impacts on regional climates. With this conclusion comes the need to recognise that the Anthropocene saw the impact of humans on regional-scale climates and hydrologies at much earlier times than generally recognized.

scholarly journals Sensitivity study of the REMO regional climate model to domain size

2021 ◽  
Vol 18 ◽  
pp. 157-167
Author(s):  
Réka Suga ◽  
Otília A. Megyeri-Korotaj ◽  
Gabriella Allaga-Zsebeházi
Keyword(s):  
Regional Climate Model ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Global Climate Model ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Domain Size ◽  
Sensitivity Study ◽  
Horizontal Resolution ◽  
Precipitation Indices

Abstract. In the framework of the KlimAdat national project, the Hungarian Meteorological Service (OMSZ) is aiming to perform 10 km horizontal resolution simulations with the 2015 version of the REMO regional climate model over Central and Eastern Europe. The long-term simulations were preceded by a 10-year long sensitivity study on domain size, which is summarised in this paper. We selected three different domains embedded in each other, which contain the whole area of the Danube and Tisza river catchments. Lateral boundary conditions were obtained from the 50 km resolution REMO driven by the MPI-ESM-LR global climate model. Simulations were performed for the period of 1970–1980 including 1-year spin-up. Monthly and seasonal means of daily 2 m temperature, precipitation sum and several precipitation indices were evaluated. Reference datasets were E-OBS 19.0 and CarpatClim-HU. We can conclude, that the selection of domain size has a larger impact on the simulation of precipitation, and in the case of the seasonal mean of the precipitation indices, the differences amongst the results obtained on each model domain exceed 10 %. In general, the smallest biases occurred on the largest domain, therefore further long-term simulations are being produced on this domain.

scholarly journals A Spatio-Temporal Statistical Downscaling Approach to Deriving Extreme Rainfall IDF Relations at Ungauged Sites in the Context of Climate Change

10.29007/nfk8 ◽  
2018 ◽  
Author(s):  
Truong-Huy Nguyen ◽  
Van-Thanh-Van Nguyen ◽  
Hoang-Lam Nguyen
Keyword(s):  
Statistical Downscaling ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Global Climate Model ◽  
Regional Scale ◽  
Extreme Rainfall ◽  
Climate Simulation ◽  
Ungauged Sites ◽  
Spatio Temporal ◽  
Statistical Criteria

This paper proposes an efficient spatio-temporal statistical downscaling approach for estimating IDF relations at an ungauged site using daily rainfalls downscaled from global climate model (GCM) outputs. More specifically, the proposed approach involves two steps: (1) a spatial downscaling using scaling factors to transfer the daily downscaled GCM extreme rainfall projections at a regional scale to a given ungauged site and (2) a temporal downscaling using the scale-invariance GEV model to derive the distribution of sub-daily extreme rainfalls from downscaled daily rainfalls at the same location. The feasibility and accuracy of the proposed approach were evaluated based on the climate simulation outputs from 21 GCMs that have been downscaled by NASA to a regional 25-km scale for two different RCP 4.5 and 8.5 scenarios and the observed extreme rainfall data available from a network of 15 raingauges located in Ontario, Canada. The jackknife technique was used to represent the ungauged site conditions. Results based on different statistical criteria have indicated the feasibility and accuracy of the proposed approach.

Sign in / Sign up

Export Citation Format

Share Document