The impact of central bank transparency on inflation expectations

2007 ◽  
Vol 23 (1) ◽  
pp. 51-66 ◽  
Author(s):  
Carin van der Cruijsen ◽  
Maria Demertzis
2020 ◽  
pp. 19-44
Author(s):  
Nicole Baerg

This chapter starts by tracing trends in central bank transparency. It reports key policy changes by some of the world’s most important central banks: the FOMC, the European Central Bank, the Bank of England, and the Bank of Japan. The second section reviews the theoretical and empirical literature on central bank design, paying close attention to the role of committee size, composition, and decision-making protocol, and classifies central banks around the world according to these features. The third section outlines the aim of central bank communications: to broadcast news and to reduce noise. The author argues that while previous literature has examined both committee design and central bank communications, it has done so in isolation. By putting these two topics together, the chapter argues that we can better understand, first, how different types of committees may be better at communicating and, second, how communication affects households’ inflation expectations and inflation.


2020 ◽  
pp. 14-14
Author(s):  
Magdalena Szyszko ◽  
Karolina Tura-Gawron

We compare the dependence of consumer inflation expectations on European Central Bank (ECB) inflation projections with that on national central bank (NCB) projections in four economies: Austria, Belgium, Finland, and Germany. We aim to assess whether the information published by central banks affects consumers, and whether inflation projections published by NCBs are more relevant to consumers than those published for the entire Eurozone. Inflation expectations were obtained from the Business and Consumer Surveys conducted by the Directorate General for Economic and Financial Affairs of the European Commission and quantified using the probabilistic method. The methodology covers: (1) forecast encompassing tests, (2) the Granger causality test, and (3) impulse response analysis complemented by (4) forecast error variance decomposition. The results suggest that the ECB outlook constitutes a more important factor in expectation formation. This article adds to the existing literature by comparing the impact of common and national projections on consumer expectations.


2020 ◽  
pp. 1-12
Author(s):  
Nan Lin

Our country’s economic growth is overly dependent on government investment, and bank credit and money supply lack a strict monitoring mechanism. Therefore, rapid economic growth is always accompanied by inflation risks. In order to study the effect of inflation impact analysis, based on machine learning algorithms, this paper combines artificial intelligence technology to analyze the impact of inflation expectations, and constructs the central bank information disclosure index and inflation expectations index. Moreover, this paper will perform ADF unit root test on the data. In addition, after confirming that the data is stable, this paper uses the Markov Regime Transfer Vector Autoregressive (MSVAR) model and state-dependent impulse response function to test and analyze the effect of China’s central bank communication in guiding the formation of inflation expectations. Through research, we can see that the machine learning algorithm constructed in this paper has significant effects, which can provide a reference for the analysis of the impact of inflation expectations.


Author(s):  
Magdalena Szyszko

The article focuses on aspects of modern monetary strategy: inflation expectationsand inflation forecasts. Inflation forecasts’ main function is shaping inflationexpectations. The deeper the impact of a central bank on expectations, the easierits task of stabilization of inflation on the targeted level. The article presents theresults of empirical research that verifies the hypothesis on existence of interdependencesof inflation forecasts and inflation expectations. The research coverstwo countries: Sweden and the Czech Republic. The research methodology includesquantitative methods: quantification of expectations (Carlson-Parkin method)and non-parametric statistics of interdependences. The research confirms theexistence of statistically important interdependences of inflation forecasts andexpectations in both countries. Their strength is remarkable for Sweden (c.a. 0.70)and much weaker for the Czech Republic (c.a. 3.0).


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