Central Bank Transparency and Short Term Interest Rate Forecasting Uncertainty

2008 ◽  
Author(s):  
Marc D. Hayford ◽  
A. G. (Tassos) Malliaris
Keyword(s):  
Interest Rate ◽  
Central Bank ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Central Bank Transparency

Central bank transparency, inflation targeting and monetary policy: a panel data approach

2018 ◽  
Vol 45 (6) ◽  
pp. 1159-1174 ◽  
Author(s):  
Gabriel Caldas Montes ◽  
Cristiane Gea
Keyword(s):  
Developing Countries ◽  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Panel Data ◽  
Interest Rate ◽  
Central Bank ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Inflation Targeting ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Central Bank Transparency ◽  
Policy Interest

Purpose The evidence concerning the effects of the inflation targeting (IT) regime as well as greater central bank transparency on monetary policy interest rates is not conclusive, and the following questions remain open. What is the effect of adopting IT on both the level and volatility of monetary policy interest rate? Does central bank transparency affect the level of the monetary policy interest rate and its volatility? Are these effects greater in developing countries? The purpose of this paper is to contribute to the literature by answering these questions. Hence, the paper analyzes the effects of IT and central bank transparency on monetary policy. Design/methodology/approach The analysis uses a sample of 48 countries (31 developing) comprising the period between 1998 and 2014. Based on panel data methodology, estimates are made for the full sample, and then for the sample of developing countries. Findings Countries that adopt the IT regime tend to have lower levels of monetary policy interest rates, as well as lower interest rate volatility. The effect of adopting IT on both the level and volatility of the basic interest rate is smaller in developing countries. Besides, countries with more transparent central banks have lower levels of monetary policy interest rates, as well as lower interest rate volatility. In turn, the effect of central bank transparency on both the level and volatility of the basic interest rate is greater in developing countries. Practical implications The study brings important practical implications regarding the influence of both the IT regime and central bank transparency on monetary policy. Originality/value Studies have sought to analyze whether IT and central bank transparency are effective to control inflation. However, few studies analyze the influence of IT and central bank transparency on interest rates. This study differs from the few existing studies since: the analysis is done not only for the effect of transparency on the level of the monetary policy interest rate, but also on its volatility; the central bank transparency index that is used has never been utilized in this sort of analysis; and the study uses panel data methodology, and compares the results between different samples.

Großbritannien – ein europäischer Spielverderber? Das britische Opting-Out aus ökonomischer Sicht

1996 ◽  
Vol 45 (3) ◽  
Author(s):  
Philip Nölling
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Interest Rate ◽  
Central Bank ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
European Central Bank ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Economic Reason ◽  
Opting Out ◽  
European Central ◽  
The Uk

AbstractWith the beginning of EMU there will be only one monetary policy with a single short term interest rate. In order for common monetary policy to be successful EMU member states have to react similarly to monetary signals from the European Central Bank (ECB). Because of its unique sensitivity to short term interest rates, this would not be the case for the UK. If, for example, the ECB would raise the short term interest rates by an amount which is appropriate for countries like France and Germany, the UK might sink into recession. This shows that besides political reasons there is also an economic reason for the UK’s opting-out from EMU.

Interest Rate Signals and Central Bank Transparency [with Comments]

2007 ◽  
Vol 2007 (1) ◽  
pp. 9-62
Author(s):  
Pierre Gosselin ◽  
Aileen Lotz ◽  
Charles Wyplosz ◽  
Charles Bean ◽  
Michael Woodford
Keyword(s):  
Interest Rate ◽  
Central Bank ◽  
Central Bank Transparency

scholarly journals Transparência do Banco Central e Mercado Financeiro: evidências para o caso brasileiro

2011 ◽  
Vol 9 (1) ◽  
pp. 51
Author(s):  
Helder Ferreira De Mendonça ◽  
José Simão Filho
Keyword(s):  
Interest Rate ◽  
Central Bank ◽  
Market Efficiency ◽  
Empirical Analysis ◽  
Financial Market ◽  
Country Risk ◽  
Review Of The Literature ◽  
The Future ◽  
Central Bank Transparency ◽  
Different Dimensions

The main objective of this paper is an empirical analysis concerning the effects caused by Central Bank of Brazil transparency on the Brazilian financial market. Furthermore, a brief review of the literature regarding central bank transparency is presented. The effects of the different dimensions of the monetary authority’s transparency on yield interest are examined. Moreover, the consequences regarding changes in the country risk are considered in this study. The findings denote that the Central Bank of Brazil transparency works as a guide for the future interest rate market and that the different dimensions of transparency contribute to a better market efficiency.

scholarly journals Short-Term Interest Rate Estimation by Filtering in a Model Linking Inflation, the Central Bank and Short-Term Interest Rates

Mathematics ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 9 (10) ◽  
pp. 1152
Author(s):  
Flavia Antonacci ◽  
Cristina Costantini ◽  
Marco Papi
Keyword(s):  
Interest Rate ◽  
Central Bank ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Risk Premium ◽  
Numerical Procedure ◽  
Model Parameters ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Time Step ◽  
Market Values ◽  
Joint Evolution

We consider the model of Antonacci, Costantini, D’Ippoliti, Papi (arXiv:2010.05462 [q-fin.MF], 2020), which describes the joint evolution of inflation, the central bank interest rate, and the short-term interest rate. In the case when the diffusion coefficient does not depend on the central bank interest rate, we derive a semi-closed valuation formula for contingent derivatives, in particular for Zero Coupon Bonds (ZCBs). By using ZCB yields as observations, we implement the Kalman filter and obtain a dynamical estimate of the short-term interest rate. In turn, by this estimate, at each time step, we calibrate the model parameters under the risk-neutral measure and the coefficient of the risk premium. We compare the market values of German interest rate yields for several maturities with the corresponding values predicted by our model, from 2007 to 2015. The numerical results validate both our model and our numerical procedure.

scholarly journals A Central Bank Theory of Price Level Determination

2020 ◽  
Vol 12 (3) ◽  
pp. 258-283
Author(s):  
Pierpaolo Benigno
Keyword(s):  
Interest Rate ◽  
Central Bank ◽  
Price Level ◽  
Balance Sheet ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Financial Independence ◽  
The Interest Rate

This paper develops a theory in which the central bank can control the price level without fiscal backing. It is shown that the remittances policy and the balance sheet of the central bank are important elements to specify. A central bank that is appropriately capitalized can succeed in controlling prices by setting the interest rate on reserves, holding short-term assets, and rebating its income to the treasury from which it has to maintain financial independence. (JEL E31, E52, E58)

Analyzing the financial and economic momentum as a result of changes in the interest rate

2020 ◽  
Vol 16 (9) ◽  
pp. 1656-1673
Author(s):  
V.V. Smirnov
Keyword(s):  
Interest Rate ◽  
Natural Gas ◽  
Central Bank ◽  
Crude Oil ◽  
Oil Prices ◽  
Global Capitalism ◽  
Positive Effects ◽  
Russian Economy ◽  
Oil And Natural Gas ◽  
The Interest Rate

Subject. The article discusses financial and economic momenta. Objectives. I determine financial and economic momenta as the interest rate changes in Russia. Methods. The study is based on a systems approach and the method of statistical analysis. Results. The Russian economy was found to strongly depend on prices for crude oil and natural gas, thus throwing Russia to the outskirts of the global capitalism, though keeping the status of an energy superpower, which ensures a sustainable growth in the global economy by increasing the external consumption and decreasing the domestic one. The devaluation of the national currency, a drop in tax revenue, etc. result from the decreased interest rate. They all require to increase M2 and the devalued retail loan in RUB, thus rising the GDP deflator. As for positive effects, the Central Bank operates sustainably, replenishes gold reserves and keeps the trade balance (positive balance), thus strengthening its resilience during a global drop in crude oil prices and the COVID-19 pandemic. The positive effects were discovered to result from a decreased in the interest rate, rather than keeping it low all the time. Conclusions and Relevance. As the interest rate may be, the financial and economic momentum in Russia depends on the volatility of the price for crude oil and natural gas. Lowering the interest rate and devaluing the national currency, the Central Bank preserves the resource structure of the Russian economy, strengthens its positions within the global capitalism and keeps its status of an energy superpower, thus reinforcing its resilience against a global drop in oil prices.

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