scholarly journals The dynamics of political party support and egocentric economic evaluations: The Scottish case

2018 ◽  
Vol 52 ◽  
pp. 192-213 ◽  
Author(s):  
Georgios Marios Chrysanthou ◽  
María Dolores Guilló
1973 ◽  
Vol 67 (1) ◽  
pp. 55-72 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sarah McCally Morehouse

This research investigated the proposition that variation in the structure of the political party can account for variation in the type of policy produced. The conditions under which legislators of the governor's party supported his legislative requests in sixteen sessions chosen for different degrees of party cohesion were investigated. The findings indicate that there is very little correlation between the legislator's district primary or election competition and his support for the governor's requests. The Democratic governor is supported by legislators from the districts in which he himself has strong party support as measured by his primary vote. The Republican governor's support cannot be geographically located in this manner. With respect to socioeconomic legislation, the pattern of support for a successful governor does not depend upon socioeconomic variables within the legislators' districts, but if the governor cannot control his legislators, socioeconomic variables provide the major basis for the factions which develop.


1998 ◽  
Vol 92 (3) ◽  
pp. 559-575 ◽  
Author(s):  
Harold D. Clarke ◽  
Marianne C. Stewart ◽  
Paul F. Whiteley

This article uses newly available British time-series data to analyze dynamic interrelationships among Labour vote intentions, perceptions that the Labour leader would make the best prime minister, and Labour party identification. Error-correction models reveal that best prime minister perceptions and party identification have important short- and long-run influences on vote intentions. Tests of rival models indicate that personal economic expectations outperform other economic evaluations in the vote intention and party identification analyses. National retrospective judgments perform well in analyses of best prime minister perceptions, and emotional reactions to economic conditions significantly influence these perceptions as well as party identification.


1991 ◽  
Vol 26 (2) ◽  
pp. 295-306 ◽  
Author(s):  
R. Darcy ◽  
James Huston ◽  
Chong‐Min Hyun ◽  
Hyun‐woo Kim

Author(s):  
Lara M. Greaves ◽  
Nikhil K. Sengupta ◽  
Carly S. Townrow ◽  
Danny Osborne ◽  
Carla A. Houkamau ◽  
...  

2015 ◽  
Vol 23 (3) ◽  
pp. 286-296 ◽  
Author(s):  
Laron K Williams ◽  
Mary Stegmaier ◽  
Marc Debus

The popularity function literature has traditionally focused on incumbent government support, even under coalition governments. Here, we shift the focus from the government to the parties. To what extent are German parties held accountable for economic conditions when they hold the Chancellorship, serve in coalition, or sit in opposition? Using Seemingly Unrelated Regression to relax the Constant Economic Vote Restriction, we simultaneously model separate monthly party support functions for the Christian Democrats (CDU/CSU), Social Democrats (SPD), Liberals (FDP), and Greens over the post-unification period. After controlling for temporal dynamics and political factors, we find that economic evaluations have the strongest effect on support for the SPD and CDU/CSU when they hold the Chancellorship, and both of these parties are strongly affected when in opposition. The FDP remains insulated from economic perceptions, despite the party’s emphasis on economic policy. Additionally, economic evaluations do not significantly change support for the Greens as an issue party.


2019 ◽  
pp. 51-74
Author(s):  
Harold D. Clarke ◽  
Euel W. Elliott ◽  
William Mishler ◽  
Marianne C. Stewart ◽  
Paul F. Whiteley ◽  
...  

1995 ◽  
Vol 25 (2) ◽  
pp. 145-170 ◽  
Author(s):  
Harold D. Clarke ◽  
Marianne C. Stewart

The argument that personal economic expectations drive support for British governing parties has received wide attention. This article employs aggregate data for the 1979–92 period to assess the effects of personal expectations, other subjective economic variables and evaluations of prime ministerial performance in rival party-support models. Analyses of competing models, including error correction specifications that take into account nonstationarity in the time series of interest, indicate that the personal expectations variants generally do very well, although they do not outperform one or more alternatives incorporating other types of economic evaluations. The error correction models show that the prime minister's approval ratings have significant short-term and long-term effects on governing party popularity.


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