Through a Glass Darkly: Economic Evaluations and Governing Party Support in Mrs. Thatcher's Britain

2019 ◽  
pp. 51-74
Author(s):  
Harold D. Clarke ◽  
Euel W. Elliott ◽  
William Mishler ◽  
Marianne C. Stewart ◽  
Paul F. Whiteley ◽  
...  
1998 ◽  
Vol 92 (3) ◽  
pp. 559-575 ◽  
Author(s):  
Harold D. Clarke ◽  
Marianne C. Stewart ◽  
Paul F. Whiteley

This article uses newly available British time-series data to analyze dynamic interrelationships among Labour vote intentions, perceptions that the Labour leader would make the best prime minister, and Labour party identification. Error-correction models reveal that best prime minister perceptions and party identification have important short- and long-run influences on vote intentions. Tests of rival models indicate that personal economic expectations outperform other economic evaluations in the vote intention and party identification analyses. National retrospective judgments perform well in analyses of best prime minister perceptions, and emotional reactions to economic conditions significantly influence these perceptions as well as party identification.


2015 ◽  
Vol 23 (3) ◽  
pp. 286-296 ◽  
Author(s):  
Laron K Williams ◽  
Mary Stegmaier ◽  
Marc Debus

The popularity function literature has traditionally focused on incumbent government support, even under coalition governments. Here, we shift the focus from the government to the parties. To what extent are German parties held accountable for economic conditions when they hold the Chancellorship, serve in coalition, or sit in opposition? Using Seemingly Unrelated Regression to relax the Constant Economic Vote Restriction, we simultaneously model separate monthly party support functions for the Christian Democrats (CDU/CSU), Social Democrats (SPD), Liberals (FDP), and Greens over the post-unification period. After controlling for temporal dynamics and political factors, we find that economic evaluations have the strongest effect on support for the SPD and CDU/CSU when they hold the Chancellorship, and both of these parties are strongly affected when in opposition. The FDP remains insulated from economic perceptions, despite the party’s emphasis on economic policy. Additionally, economic evaluations do not significantly change support for the Greens as an issue party.


1995 ◽  
Vol 25 (2) ◽  
pp. 145-170 ◽  
Author(s):  
Harold D. Clarke ◽  
Marianne C. Stewart

The argument that personal economic expectations drive support for British governing parties has received wide attention. This article employs aggregate data for the 1979–92 period to assess the effects of personal expectations, other subjective economic variables and evaluations of prime ministerial performance in rival party-support models. Analyses of competing models, including error correction specifications that take into account nonstationarity in the time series of interest, indicate that the personal expectations variants generally do very well, although they do not outperform one or more alternatives incorporating other types of economic evaluations. The error correction models show that the prime minister's approval ratings have significant short-term and long-term effects on governing party popularity.


1990 ◽  
Vol 22 (7-8) ◽  
pp. 131-138
Author(s):  
Ahmed Fadel

Many of Egypt's cities have existing treatment plants under operation that have been constructed before 1970. Almost all of these treatment plants now need rehabilitation and upgrading to extend their services for a longer period. One of these plants is the Beni Suef City Wastewater Treatment Plant. The Beni Suef WWTP was constructed in 1956. It has primary treatment followed by secondary treatment employing intermediate rate trickling filters. The BOD, COD, and SS concentration levels are relatively high. They are approximately 800, 1100, and 600 mg/litre, respectively. The Beni Suef city required the determination of the level of work needed for the rehabilitation and upgrading of the existing 200 l/s plant and to extend its capacity to 440 l/s at year 2000 A description of the existing units, their deficiencies and operation problems, and the required rehabilitation are presented and discussed in this paper. Major problems facing the upgrading were the lack of space for expansion and the shortage of funds. It was, therefore, necessary to study several alternative solutions and methods of treatment. The choice of alternatives was from one of the following schemes: a) changing the filter medium, its mode of operation and increasing the number of units, b) changing the trickling filter to high rate and combining it with the activated sludge process, for operation by one of several possible combinations such as: trickling filter-solids contact, roughing filter-activated sludge, and trickling filter-activated sludge process, c) dividing the flow into two parts, the first part to be treated using the existing system and the second part to be treated by activated sludge process, and d) expanding the existing system by increasing the numbers of the different process units. The selection of the alternative was based on technical, operational and economic evaluations. The different alternatives were compared on the basis of system costs, shock load handling, treatment plant operation and predicted effluent quality. The flow schemes for the alternatives are presented. The methodology of selecting the best alternative is discussed. From the study it was concluded that the first alternative is the most reliable from the point of view of costs, handling shock load, and operation.


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