scholarly journals Bayesian trend analysis in annual rainfall total, duration and maximum in the Kara River basin (West Africa)

2017 ◽  
Vol 13 ◽  
pp. 255-273 ◽  
Author(s):  
Hèou Maléki Badjana ◽  
Benjamin Renard ◽  
Jörg Helmschrot ◽  
Kodjovi Sidéra Edjamé ◽  
Abel Afouda ◽  
...  
2002 ◽  
Vol 38 (2) ◽  
pp. 163-183 ◽  
Author(s):  
A. Buerkert ◽  
H.-P. Piepho ◽  
A. Bationo

Soil fertility constraints to crop production have been recognized widely as a major obstacle to food security and agro-ecosystem sustainability in sub-Saharan West Africa. As such, they have led to a multitude of research projects and policy debates on how best they should be overcome. Conclusions, based on long-term multi-site experiments, are lacking with respect to a regional assessment of phosphorus and nitrogen fertilizer effects, surface mulched crop residues, and legume rotations on total dry matter of cereals in this region. A mixed model time-trend analysis was used to investigate the effects of four nitrogen and phosphorus rates, annually applied crop residue dry matter at 500 and 2000 kg ha−1, and cereal-legume rotation versus continuous cereal cropping on the total dry matter of cereals and legumes. The multi-factorial experiment was conducted over four years at eight locations, with annual rainfall ranging from 510 to 1300 mm, in Niger, Burkina Faso, and Togo. With the exception of phosphorus, treatment effects on legume growth were marginal. At most locations, except for typical Sudanian sites with very low base saturation and high rainfall, phosphorus effects on cereal total dry matter were much lower with rock phosphate than with soluble phosphorus, unless the rock phosphate was combined with an annual seed-placement of 4 kg ha−1 phosphorus. Across all other treatments, nitrogen effects were negligible at 500 mm annual rainfall but at 900 mm, the highest nitrogen rate led to total dry matter increases of up to 77% and, at 1300 mm, to 183%. Mulch-induced increases in cereal total dry matter were larger with lower base saturation, reaching 45% on typical acid sandy Sahelian soils. Legume rotation effects tended to increase over time but were strongly species-dependent.


2010 ◽  
Vol 11 (1) ◽  
pp. 26-45 ◽  
Author(s):  
Nityanand Singh ◽  
Ashwini Ranade

Abstract Characteristics of wet spells (WSs) and intervening dry spells (DSs) are extremely useful for water-related sectors. The information takes on greater significance in the wake of global climate change and climate-change scenario projections. The features of 40 parameters of the rainfall time distribution as well as their extremes have been studied for two wet and dry spells for 19 subregions across India using gridded daily rainfall available on 1° latitude × 1° longitude spatial resolution for the period 1951–2007. In a low-frequency-mode, intra-annual rainfall variation, WS (DS) is identified as a “continuous period with daily rainfall equal to or greater than (less than) daily mean rainfall (DMR) of climatological monsoon period over the area of interest.” The DMR shows significant spatial variation from 2.6 mm day−1 over the extreme southeast peninsula (ESEP) to 20.2 mm day−1 over the southern-central west coast (SCWC). Climatologically, the number of WSs (DSs) decreases from 11 (10) over the extreme south peninsula to 4 (3) over northwestern India as a result of a decrease in tropical and oceanic influences. The total duration of WSs (DSs) decreases from 101 (173) to 45 (29) days, and the duration of individual WS (DS) from 12 (18) to 7 (11) days following similar spatial patterns. Broadly, the total rainfall of wet and dry spells, and rainfall amount and rainfall intensity of actual and extreme wet and dry spells, are high over orographic regions and low over the peninsula, Indo-Gangetic plains, and northwest dry province. The rainfall due to WSs (DSs) contributes ∼68% (∼17%) to the respective annual total. The start of the first wet spell is earlier (19 March) over ESEP and later (22 June) over northwestern India, and the end of the last wet spell occurs in reverse, that is, earlier (12 September) from northwestern India and later (16 December) from ESEP. In recent years/decades, actual and extreme WSs are slightly shorter and their rainfall intensity higher over a majority of the subregions, whereas actual and extreme DSs are slightly (not significantly) longer and their rainfall intensity weaker. There is a tendency for the first WS to start approximately six days earlier across the country and the last WS to end approximately two days earlier, giving rise to longer duration of rainfall activities by approximately four days. However, a spatially coherent, robust, long-term trend (1951–2007) is not seen in any of the 40 WS/DS parameters examined in the present study.


2019 ◽  
Vol 8 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Gizachew Kabite Wedajo ◽  
Misgana K. Muleta ◽  
Berhan Gessesse ◽  
Sifan A. Koriche

Abstract Background Understanding spatiotemporal climate and vegetation changes and their nexus is key for designing climate change adaptation strategies at a local scale. However, such a study is lacking in many basins of Ethiopia. The objectives of this study were (i) to analyze temperature, rainfall and vegetation greenness trends and (ii) determine the spatial relationship of climate variables and vegetation greenness, characterized using Normalized Difference in Vegetation Index (NDVI), for the Dhidhessa River Basin (DRB). Quality checked high spatial resolution satellite datasets were used for the study. Mann–Kendall test and Sen’s slope method were used for the trend analysis. The spatial relationship between climate change and NDVI was analyzed using geographically weighted regression (GWR) technique. Results According to the study, past and future climate trend analysis generally showed wetting and warming for the DRB where the degree of trends varies for the different time and spatial scales. A seasonal shift in rainfall was also observed for the basin. These findings informed that there will be a negative impact on rain-fed agriculture and water availability in the basin. Besides, NDVI trends analysis generally showed greening for most climatic zones for the annual and main rainy season timescales. However, no NDVI trends were observed in all timescales for cool sub-humid, tepid humid and warm humid climatic zones. The increasing NDVI trends could be attributed to agroforestry practices but do not necessarily indicate improved forest coverage for the basin. The change in NDVI was positively correlated to rainfall (r2 = 0.62) and negatively correlated to the minimum (r2 = 0.58) and maximum (r2 = 0.45) temperature. The study revealed a strong interaction between the climate variables and vegetation greenness for the basin that further influences the biophysical processes of the land surface like the hydrologic responses of a basin. Conclusion The study concluded that the trend in climate and vegetation greenness varies spatiotemporally for the DRB. Besides, the climate change and its strong relationship with vegetation greenness observed in this study will further affect the biophysical and environmental processes in the study area; mostly negatively on agricultural and water resource sectors. Thus, this study provides helpful information to device climate change adaptation strategies at a local scale.


Water ◽  
2018 ◽  
Vol 10 (9) ◽  
pp. 1232
Author(s):  
Vasileios Markantonis ◽  
Celine Dondeynaz ◽  
Dionysis Latinopoulos ◽  
Kostas Bithas ◽  
Ioannis Trichakis ◽  
...  

Water is indispensable for human life and sufficient domestic use is considered as a regularity in the western world. The conditions are substantially different in African countries where poverty and lack of life-supporting services prevail. The provision of domestic water is an essential problem, which requires action. The lack of sufficient funding for the development of infrastructure supports claims for citizen participation in related costs. However, can citizens pay and to what extend for sufficient water provision? The present study investigates a household’s willingness to pay for domestic water in the transboundary Mékrou River Basin in West Africa (Burkina Faso, Benin and Niger) and explores the payment for domestic water provision to poverty. The paper uses the results of a household survey that was undertaken in the Mekrou basin including a representative sample from all three countries. Based on this survey the paper presents basic socio-economic characteristics of the local population as well as qualitative water provision and management attributes. In the core of the econometric analysis the paper presents the results of the survey’s Contingent Valuation (CV) scenario estimating the households’ willingness to pay (WTP) for a domestic water provision. The households of the Mekrou basin are willing to pay 2.81 euro per month in average for a domestic water provision network but this is strongly related with the wealth of households. This finding although it may support the “user pays principle”, it also raises serious questions over the provision of water to poor households.


2018 ◽  
Vol 18 (4) ◽  
pp. 1279-1296 ◽  
Author(s):  
Vasileios Markantonis ◽  
Fabio Farinosi ◽  
Celine Dondeynaz ◽  
Iban Ameztoy ◽  
Marco Pastori ◽  
...  

Abstract. The assessment of natural hazards such as floods and droughts is a complex issue that demands integrated approaches and high-quality data. Especially in African developing countries, where information is limited, the assessment of floods and droughts, though an overarching issue that influences economic and social development, is even more challenging. This paper presents an integrated approach to assessing crucial aspects of floods and droughts in the transboundary Mékrou River basin (a portion of the Niger River basin in West Africa), combining climatic trends analysis and the findings of a household survey. The multivariable trend analysis estimates, at the biophysical level, the climate variability and the occurrence of floods and droughts. These results are coupled with an analysis of household survey data that reveals the behaviour and opinions of local residents regarding the observed climate variability and occurrence of flood and drought events, household mitigation measures, and the impacts of floods and droughts. Based on survey data analysis, the paper provides a per-household cost estimation of floods and droughts that occurred over a 2-year period (2014–2015). Furthermore, two econometric models are set up to identify the factors that influence the costs of floods and droughts to impacted households.


2019 ◽  
Vol 11 (01) ◽  
pp. 82-98 ◽  
Author(s):  
Lawin Agnidé Emmanuel ◽  
Lamboni Batablinlè ◽  
Manirakiza Célestin ◽  
Kamou Hodabalo

Author(s):  
Nguyen Ba Dung ◽  
Dang Tuyet Minh ◽  
Nguyen Quoc Long ◽  
Le Thi Thu Ha

There are many factors that influence the formation and development of floods, such as rainfall, soil, slope, land cover, drainage, and density. Therefore, a quantitative assessment of their importance is necessary, especially in the determination of flood risk zones, using the Analytic Hierarchy Process algorithm and Geographic Information System. In comparison with other methodologies, an obvious advantage of Analytic Hierarchy Process is the ability to solve multi-variable qualitative and quantitative problems with precise and trustworthy results. This paper presents the application of the Analytic Hierarchy Process algorithm in analyzing and evaluating the level at which various criteria affect flood risk in the Lam River basin. Some of the flood-causative factors considered in this paper are annual rainfall, soil, slope, land cover, drainage density, and relative slope length. These factors were chosen based on the physical conditions of the study area. The research results are the weight of different criteria. The higher the weight, the higher the effect of that criterion on flood risk. The computed weights show that annual rainfall and slope are the factors that contribute the most to flooding, based on decision-makers’ judgement. The results of this article can be used to construct a flood risk zoning map and flood susceptibility map for flood warnings in the Lam River basin, using the Analytic Hierarchy Process method and Geographic Information System technology. New research shows that Analytic Hierarchy Process can be trustworthy when assessing the level of influence of the different factors on determining flood-prone areas in the Lam River basin, as well as other basins.


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