scholarly journals Impact of the global financial crisis on the crude oil market

2020 ◽  
Vol 30 ◽  
pp. 100516 ◽  
Author(s):  
Kyohun Joo ◽  
Jong Hwan Suh ◽  
Daeyong Lee ◽  
Kwangwon Ahn
Keyword(s):  
Financial Crisis ◽  
Crude Oil ◽  
Global Financial Crisis ◽  
Oil Market ◽  
The Global Financial Crisis

scholarly journals Double-Edged Sword of Global Financial Crisis and COVID-19 Pandemic on Crude Oil Stock Returns

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Monday Osagie Adenomon ◽  
Ngozi G. Emenogu
Keyword(s):  
Financial Crisis ◽  
Crude Oil ◽  
Global Financial Crisis ◽  
The Body ◽  
Garch Models ◽  
Oil Futures ◽  
Crude Oil Futures ◽  
The Global Financial Crisis ◽  
The Impact ◽  
T Distribution

This study investigates the impact of global financial crisis and the present COVID-19 pandemic on daily and weekly Crude oil futures using four variants of ARMA-GARCH models: ARMA-sGARCH, ARMA-eGARCH, ARMA-TGARCH and ARMA- aPARCH with dummy variables We also investigated the persistence, half-life and backtesting of the models. This study therefore seeks to contribute to the body of literature on the impact of global financial crisis and the present COVID-19 pandemic on crude oil futures market. This investigation of the impact of global financial crisis and the COVID-19 on crude oil futures has not been much studied at present. We obtained and analyzed the daily and weekly crude oil futures from secondary sources. Daily crude oil futures used in this study covers the period from the 4th January 2000 to 27th April 2020 while the weekly crude oil futures covered from 2ndJanuary 2000 to 26th April 2020 . The global financial crisis period covered from 2nd July 2007 to 31st March 2009 and the current COVID-19 pandemic covered from 1st January 2020 to 27th April, 2020. The study used both student t and skewed student t innovations with AIC, goodness-of-test fit and backtesting to select the best model. Most of the estimated ARMA-GARCH models are supported by skewed student t distribution while most of the ARMA-GARCH models exhibited high persistence values in the presence of global financial crisis and the COVID-19 pandemic. In the overall, the estimated ARMA(1,0)-eGARCH(2,1) and ARMA(1,0)-eGARCH(2,2) model for daily crude oil futures and weekly crude oil futures respectively have been significantly impacted by the global financial crisis and the Present COVID-19 pandemic while the preferred estimated models also passed the goodness-of-test fit and backtesting.This study recommends shareholders and investors should think outside the box as crude oil futures tend to be affected by global financial crisis and COVID-19 pandemic while countries also that depend mostly on crude oil are encouraged to diversify their economy in other to survive and be sustained during financial and health crisis.

scholarly journals What Microeconomic Fundamentals Drove Global Oil Prices during 1986–2020?

2021 ◽  
Vol 14 (8) ◽  
pp. 391
Author(s):  
Anastasios G. Malliaris ◽  
Mary Malliaris
Keyword(s):  
Neural Network ◽  
Neural Networks ◽  
Financial Crisis ◽  
Global Financial Crisis ◽  
Supply And Demand ◽  
Oil Prices ◽  
Main Hypothesis ◽  
Oil Market ◽  
The Global Financial Crisis ◽  
The Impact

The global financial crisis of 2007–2009 caused major economic disturbances in the oil market. In this paper, we consider five variables that describe the microeconomics of the supply of and demand for oil, and evaluate their importance before, during and after the global financial crisis. We consider five dissimilar regimes during the period of January 1986 to the end of 2020: two regimes prior to the global financial crisis, the regime during the crisis, and two regimes after the crisis. The main hypothesis tested is that oil fundamentals of supply and demand remained important, even though the five regimes were dissimilar. We built five boosted and over-fitted neural networks to capture the exact relationships between spot oil prices and oil data related to these prices. This analysis shows that, while the inputs into an accurate neural network can remain the same, the impact of each variable can change considerably during different regimes.

scholarly journals What Has Driven the U.S. Monthly Oil Production Since 2009? Empirical Results from Two Modeling Approaches

2021 ◽  
Vol 14 (2) ◽  
pp. 81
Author(s):  
Ramaprasad Bhar ◽  
Anastasios G. Malliaris ◽  
Mary Malliaris
Keyword(s):  
Financial Crisis ◽  
Crude Oil ◽  
Global Financial Crisis ◽  
Price Volatility ◽  
Oil Production ◽  
High Yield ◽  
Modeling Approaches ◽  
Crude Oil Production ◽  
The One ◽  
The Global Financial Crisis

From the early 1970s to the Global Financial Crisis of 2007–09, U.S. crude oil production followed a declining trend. After the Global Financial Crisis, U.S. crude oil production increased rapidly. This paper addresses the important question “what economic factors have driven U.S. crude oil production since the Global Financial Crisis?”. We propose that factors such as: the price of oil, the one period lagged price of oil, the price of copper, the crude oil price volatility, the Trade Weighted U.S. Dollar Index, and the high yield index spread, are important explanatory variables. Using two modeling approaches, namely, multiple regression, and the random tree methodology, we conclude that the one month lagged price of oil is the most significant explanatory variable, among all considered, for the upward trend of U.S. oil production from 2009 to early 2020.

On the formation of a New Paradigm of fiscal Policy

2013 ◽  
pp. 152-158 ◽  
Author(s):  
V. Senchagov
Keyword(s):  
Public Finance ◽  
Fiscal Policy ◽  
Financial Crisis ◽  
Global Financial Crisis ◽  
Domestic Demand ◽  
Real Economy ◽  
New Paradigm ◽  
Monetary Aggregate ◽  
The Past ◽  
The Global Financial Crisis

Due to Russia’s exit from the global financial crisis, the fiscal policy of withdrawing windfall spending has exhausted its potential. It is important to refocus public finance to the real economy and the expansion of domestic demand. For this goal there is sufficient, but not realized financial potential. The increase in fiscal spending in these areas is unlikely to lead to higher inflation, given its actual trend in the past decade relative to M2 monetary aggregate, but will directly affect the investment component of many underdeveloped sectors, as well as the volume of domestic production and consumer demand.

ASPEK ETIK DAN SISTEMIK DALAM EKONOMI DAN BISNIS ISLAM

ALQALAM ◽  
2014 ◽  
Vol 31 (1) ◽  
pp. 187
Author(s):  
Budi Harsanto
Keyword(s):  
Financial Crisis ◽  
Business Ethics ◽  
Moral Hazard ◽  
Global Financial Crisis ◽  
Financial Institution ◽  
Research Question ◽  
Academic Journals ◽  
Lehman Brothers ◽  
The World ◽  
The Global Financial Crisis

The fall of Enron, Lehman Brothers and other major financial institution in the world make researchers conduct various studies about crisis. The research question in this study is, from Islamic economics and business standpoint, why the global financial crisis can happen repeatedly. The purpose is to contribute ideas regarding Islamic viewpoint linked with the global financial crisis. The methodology used is a theoretical-reflective to various article published in academic journals and other intellectual resources with relevant themes. There are lots of analyses on the causes of the crisis. For discussion purposes, the causes divide into two big parts namely ethics and systemic. Ethics contributed to the crisis by greed and moral hazard as a theme that almost always arises in the study of the global financial crisis. Systemic means that the crisis can only be overcome with a major restructuring of the system. Islamic perspective on these two aspect is diametrically different. At ethics side, there is exist direction to obtain blessing in economics and business activities. At systemic side, there is rule of halal and haram and a set of mechanism of economics system such as the concept of ownership that will early prevent the seeds of crisis. Keywords: Islamic economics and business, business ethics, financial crisis 

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