Population heterogeneity, state dependence and sexual offender recidivism: The aging process and the lost predictive impact of prior criminal charges over time

2011 ◽  
Vol 39 (4) ◽  
pp. 344-354 ◽  
Author(s):  
Joanna Amirault ◽  
Patrick Lussier
Author(s):  
Martin Rettenberger ◽  
Peer Briken ◽  
Daniel Turner ◽  
Reinhard Eher

2010 ◽  
Vol 25 (3) ◽  
pp. 349-362 ◽  
Author(s):  
Shannon M. Bader ◽  
Robert Welsh ◽  
Mario J. Scalora

During recent years, research about female sexual offender recidivism rates using official criminal justice records has increased. Although informative, rearrest or conviction rates may be insufficient for this population. This study examines two potential outcome measures for accurately studying recidivism among 57 female sexual offenders; a criminal recidivism measure based on formal legal charges and a reported recidivism measure based on child welfare reports. Based on the criminal recidivism outcome measure, 10 (17.5%) women were charged for a subsequent sexual crime. The broader reported recidivism measure identified six additional women with subsequent contact with police or child welfare agencies for sexually inappropriate behaviors. There were no significant differences found between the 41 nonrecidivists and the 16 recidivists. The implications of these findings are discussed.


2019 ◽  
Vol 22 (1) ◽  
pp. 4-15
Author(s):  
YongJei Lee ◽  
SooHyun O

By operationalizing two theoretical frameworks, we forecast crime hot spots in Colorado Springs. First, we use a population heterogeneity (flag) framework to find places where the hot spot forecasting is consistently successful over months. Second, we use a state dependence (boost) framework of the number of crimes in the periods prior to the forecasted month. This algorithm is implemented in Microsoft Excel®, making it simple to apply and completely transparent. Results shows high accuracy and high efficiency in hot spot forecasting, even if the data set and the type of crime we used in this study were different from what the original algorithm was based on. Results imply that the underlying mechanisms of serious and non-serious crime for forecasting are different from each other. We also find that the spatial patterns of forecasted hot spots are different between calls for service and crime event. Future research should consider both flag and boost theories in hot spot forecasting.


2006 ◽  
Vol 989 (1) ◽  
pp. 154-166 ◽  
Author(s):  
R. KARL HANSON ◽  
KELLY E. MORTON ◽  
ANDREW J. R. HARRIS

2008 ◽  
Vol 32 (2) ◽  
pp. 143-174 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jérôme Bourdieu ◽  
Gilles Postel-Vinay ◽  
Akiko Suwa-Eisenmann

Population aging in France in the nineteenth century concerned mainly women, as men's life spans increased only after World War I. The article assesses the impact of this gender-differentiated aging process on wealth distribution, using individual data on bequests collected for the period 1800-1939. Over time, more women died without assets. But those who owned assets were richer. As a result, women's aging contributed both to a more unequal wealth distribution and to narrowing the gender gap between asset owners.


Sexual Abuse ◽  
2016 ◽  
Vol 29 (2) ◽  
pp. 186-202 ◽  
Author(s):  
Christopher A. Ralston ◽  
Amar Sarkar ◽  
Grace T. Philipp ◽  
Douglas L. Epperson

Following the implementation of sexual offender notification laws, researchers have found a drop in the rate of prosecutions and an increase in plea bargains for sexual offenses committed by male juveniles. This type of prosecutorial hesitation has implications for the predictive validity of sexual recidivism risk assessments, such as the Juvenile Sexual Offender Recidivism Risk Assessment Tool–II (JSORRAT-II), that require data from officially adjudicated offenses in the scoring of several items. The present study sought to test the impact of including data from documented but uncharged (DBU) sexual offenses in the scoring of the JSORRAT-II on its predictive validity using an exhaustive sample of 1,095 juveniles who offended sexually from the states of Iowa and Utah. Although sexual recidivists had significantly more DBU data, the inclusion of those data did not improve the predictive validity of the tool. The authors discuss additional reasons why changes in prosecutorial practice might remain confound in risk assessment studies and suggest future research to investigate those hypotheses.


2002 ◽  
Vol 184 (9) ◽  
pp. 2352-2359 ◽  
Author(s):  
Robert A. Kingsley ◽  
Eric H. Weening ◽  
A. Marijke Keestra ◽  
Andreas J. Bäumler

ABSTRACT The lpf fimbrial operon oscillates between phase ON and phase OFF expression states, thereby generating heterogeneity within S. enterica serotype Typhimurium populations with regard to expression of long polar fimbrial antigens. To determine whether the proportion of lpf phase variants changes with growth conditions, the lpf phase ON content of cultures was determined after in vitro and in vivo passage. After passage in Luria-Bertani (LB) broth for 120 generations, 96% of cells in a serotype Typhimurium culture carried the lpf operon in the phase ON expression state, regardless of the phase ON/OFF ratio in the inoculum. In contrast, a culture passaged on LB agar plates for 500 generations contained approximately 2% lpf phase ON cells. Differences in the lpf phase ON content of cultures passaged in broth and on plates were not caused by an outgrowth of lpf phase ON or lpf phase OFF cells, since deletion of lpf biosynthesis genes did not alter the phase ON/OFF ratio attained after passage. Instead, growth in LB broth resulted in a eightfold increase in the phase OFF-to-ON transition frequency and a decrease of the lpf phase ON-to-OFF transition frequency by a factor of 150 compared to growth on LB agar plates. After infection of naïve CBA/J mice with an lpf phase ON culture of serotype Typhimurium, the proportion of lpf phase ON cells continuously decreased over time, regardless of whether the strain carried intact fimbrial biosynthesis genes. These data suggest that elaboration of fimbriae does not have a major influence on the population heterogeneity produced by phase variation of the lpf operon in naïve mice.


2019 ◽  
Vol 3 (Supplement_1) ◽  
pp. S579-S579
Author(s):  
Morgan E Levine ◽  
Perry Kuo ◽  
Jennifer Schrack ◽  
Eleanor M Simonsick ◽  
Susan Resnick ◽  
...  

Abstract Aging is associated with numerous changes at all levels of biological organization. Harnessing this information to develop measures that accurately and reliably quantify the biological aging process will require longitudinal modeling and incorporation of systems level approaches. We will describe applications of network modeling for longitudinal multi-system biomarker data. Using data from the Baltimore Longitudinal Study of Aging (BLSA) we are able to generate systems level models of biological and physiological function, and then demonstrate how these networks change with age. We will also link systems-level aging changes to hallmarks of aging, including epigenetic alterations, senescence, mitochondrial dysfunction, and proteostasis. Given the complexity of the biological aging process, modeling of systems dynamics over time will both lead to the development of better biomarkers of aging, and also inform our conceptualization of how alterations at the molecular level propagate up levels of organization to eventually influence morbidity and mortality risk.


2019 ◽  
Vol 23 (2) ◽  
pp. 174-201 ◽  
Author(s):  
YongJei Lee ◽  
O SooHyun ◽  
John E. Eck

Real-time crime hot spot forecasting presents challenges to policing. There is a high volume of hot spot misclassifications and a lack of theoretical support for forecasting algorithms, especially in disciplines outside the fields of criminology and criminal justice. Transparency is particularly important as most hot spot forecasting models do not provide their underlying mechanisms. To address these challenges, we operationalize two different theories in our algorithm to forecast crime hot spots over Portland and Cincinnati. First, we use a population heterogeneity framework to find places that are consistent hot spots. Second, we use a state dependence model of the number of crimes in the time periods prior to the predicted month. This algorithm is implemented in Excel, making it extremely simple to apply and completely transparent. Our forecasting models show high accuracy and high efficiency in hot spot forecasting in both Portland and Cincinnati context. We suggest previously developed hot spot forecasting models need to be reconsidered.


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