Beyond RCP8.5: Marginal mitigation using quasi-representative concentration pathways

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
J. Isaac Miller ◽  
William A. Brock
Keyword(s):  
Representative Concentration Pathways

scholarly journals Approaching Sea-Level Rise (SLR) Change: Strengthening Local Responses to Sea-Level Rise and Coping with Climate Change in Northern Mozambique

2021 ◽  
Vol 9 (2) ◽  
pp. 205
Author(s):  
Serafino Afonso Rui Mucova ◽  
Ulisses Miranda Azeiteiro ◽  
Walter Leal Filho ◽  
Carina Lurdes Lopes ◽  
João Miguel Dias ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Ecosystem Services ◽  
Sea Level Rise ◽  
Sea Level ◽  
North Coast ◽  
Coastal Regions ◽  
Mean Sea Level ◽  
Representative Concentration Pathways ◽  
Local Responses ◽  
Ipcc Report ◽  
Global Estimates

Mean sea-level is expected to rise significantly by 2100 in all scenarios, including those compatible with the objectives of the Paris Climate Agreement. Global sea level rise projections indicate devastating implications for populations, ecosystem services and biodiversity. The implications of the sea-level rise (SLR) on low-lying islands and coastal regions and communities are substantial and require deep-rooted coping measures. In the absence of adequate responses for coping, Mozambique is expected to record huge losses, with an impact on the economy and development in many sectors of its coastal regions mainly in northern Mozambique. This research aimed to perform projections on SLR in Mozambique, and to understand its role and implications on the north coast of the country. SLR was estimated through the analysis of model outputs that support the global estimates of the fifth IPCC report near the Mozambican coast, for each of the four representative concentration pathways (RCPs) scenarios. Regional coastline retreat and coastal erosion were estimated through the results of global sandy coastlines projections developed by Vousdoukas. Mean sea-level rise projections indicate that regional estimates for the Mozambican coast are relative higher than global estimates (~0.05 m) for all representative concentration pathways (RCPs). Yet, we highlight significant differences in sea-level rises of 0.5 m, 0.7 m or 1.0 m by 2100 compared to the global mean. It is expected that with the increase in the mean sea level in the northern part of the Mozambican coast, erosive effects will increase, as well as the retreat of the coastline until 2100. With this, the tourism sector, settlements, ecosystem services and local populations are expected to be significantly affected by 2050, with increased threats in 2100 (RCP4.5, RCP8.5). Local responses for coping are proposed and properly discussed for the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios through 2100.

scholarly journals Global wheat production potentials and management flexibility under the representative concentration pathways

2014 ◽  
Vol 122 ◽  
pp. 107-121 ◽  
Author(s):  
Juraj Balkovič ◽  
Marijn van der Velde ◽  
Rastislav Skalský ◽  
Wei Xiong ◽  
Christian Folberth ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Wheat Production ◽  
Representative Concentration Pathways ◽  
Management Flexibility

scholarly journals Projection of Future Changes in Elephant Population in Amboseli under Representative Concentration Pathways

2018 ◽  
Vol 07 (04) ◽  
pp. 649-679
Author(s):  
Mildred M. Aduma ◽  
Mohamed Y. Said ◽  
Gilbert Ouma ◽  
Gordon Wayumba ◽  
Lucy W. Njino
Keyword(s):  
Representative Concentration Pathways ◽  
Elephant Population

scholarly journals Twenty-First-Century Compatible CO2 Emissions and Airborne Fraction Simulated by CMIP5 Earth System Models under Four Representative Concentration Pathways

2013 ◽  
Vol 26 (13) ◽  
pp. 4398-4413 ◽  
Author(s):  
Chris Jones ◽  
Eddy Robertson ◽  
Vivek Arora ◽  
Pierre Friedlingstein ◽  
Elena Shevliakova ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Carbon Cycle ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Coupled Model ◽  
Co2 Concentration ◽  
Atmospheric Composition ◽  
System Component ◽  
Anthropogenic Emissions ◽  
Carbon Uptake ◽  
Earth System ◽  
Representative Concentration Pathways

Abstract The carbon cycle is a crucial Earth system component affecting climate and atmospheric composition. The response of natural carbon uptake to CO2 and climate change will determine anthropogenic emissions compatible with a target CO2 pathway. For phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5), four future representative concentration pathways (RCPs) have been generated by integrated assessment models (IAMs) and used as scenarios by state-of-the-art climate models, enabling quantification of compatible carbon emissions for the four scenarios by complex, process-based models. Here, the authors present results from 15 such Earth system GCMs for future changes in land and ocean carbon storage and the implications for anthropogenic emissions. The results are consistent with the underlying scenarios but show substantial model spread. Uncertainty in land carbon uptake due to differences among models is comparable with the spread across scenarios. Model estimates of historical fossil-fuel emissions agree well with reconstructions, and future projections for representative concentration pathway 2.6 (RCP2.6) and RCP4.5 are consistent with the IAMs. For high-end scenarios (RCP6.0 and RCP8.5), GCMs simulate smaller compatible emissions than the IAMs, indicating a larger climate–carbon cycle feedback in the GCMs in these scenarios. For the RCP2.6 mitigation scenario, an average reduction of 50% in emissions by 2050 from 1990 levels is required but with very large model spread (14%–96%). The models also disagree on both the requirement for sustained negative emissions to achieve the RCP2.6 CO2 concentration and the success of this scenario to restrict global warming below 2°C. All models agree that the future airborne fraction depends strongly on the emissions profile with higher airborne fraction for higher emissions scenarios.

Future water availability from the western Karakoram under representative concentration pathways as simulated by CORDEX South Asia

2020 ◽  
Vol 141 (3-4) ◽  
pp. 1093-1108
Author(s):  
Eshrat Fatima ◽  
Mujtaba Hassan ◽  
Shabeh ul Hasson ◽  
Bashir Ahmad ◽  
Syeda Saleha Fatim Ali
Keyword(s):  
South Asia ◽  
Water Availability ◽  
Representative Concentration Pathways

Current and future patterns of forest fire occurrence in China

2020 ◽  
Vol 29 (2) ◽  
pp. 104 ◽  
Author(s):  
Zhiwei Wu ◽  
Hong S. He ◽  
Robert E. Keane ◽  
Zhiliang Zhu ◽  
Yeqiao Wang ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Forest Fire ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
Southern China ◽  
Northern China ◽  
General Circulation Models ◽  
Boosted Regression Trees ◽  
Fire Occurrence ◽  
Representative Concentration Pathways ◽  
Fire Patterns ◽  
In Fire

Forest fire patterns are likely to be altered by climate change. We used boosted regression trees modelling and the MODIS Global Fire Atlas dataset (2003–15) to characterise relative influences of nine natural and human variables on fire patterns across five forest zones in China. The same modelling approach was used to project fire patterns for 2041–60 and 2061–80 based on two general circulation models for two representative concentration pathways scenarios. The results showed that, for the baseline period (2003–15) and across the five forest zones, climate variables explained 37.4–43.5% of the variability in fire occurrence and human activities were responsible for explaining an additional 27.0–36.5% of variability. The fire frequency was highest in the subtropical evergreen broadleaf forests zone in southern China, and lowest in the warm temperate deciduous broadleaved mixed-forests zone in northern China. Projection results showed an increasing trend in fire occurrence probability ranging from 43.3 to 99.9% and 41.4 to 99.3% across forest zones under the two climate models and two representative concentration pathways scenarios relative to the current climate (2003–15). Increased fire occurrence is projected to shift from southern to central-northern China for both 2041–60 and 2061–80.

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