Standardized model runs and sensitivity analysis using the “Bubbledrive-1” volcanic conduit flow model

2005 ◽  
Vol 143 (1-3) ◽  
pp. 173-185 ◽  
Author(s):  
D. Sahagian ◽  
A. Proussevitch
2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Masatoshi Ohashi ◽  
Mie Ichihara ◽  
Fukashi Maeno ◽  
Ben Kennedy ◽  
Darren Gravley

<p>Tube pumice is characterized by aligned highly elongated bubbles and is a common product of explosive silicic eruptions. The relative abundance of tube pumice and non-tube pumice in the stratigraphy has been interpreted as resulting from temporal and spatial variations in a conduit flow. Therefore, understanding the formation mechanism of tube pumice is valuable, but still debated. Most previous studies interpret tube pumice forming from simple shear deformation, assuming a parabolic velocity profile across a conduit. However, simple shear cannot explain the observation that tube pumice is rare in plinian falls but frequent in ignimbrites (interpreted to have wider vents).</p><p>In this study, we combine a bubble deformation model with a quasi-two-dimensional steady conduit flow model. A bubble is deformed by the velocity gradient while moving within the conduit flow. The conduit flow model is calculated for the 1.8 ka Taupo plinian eruption, which produced a high proportion of tube pumice in the ignimbrite phase. In this abstract, we explain results from two rheological models showing distinct velocity profiles. In the Newtonian isothermal fluid, the velocity profile across the conduit becomes parabolic. In a fluid that allows viscous heating, the temperature near the conduit wall rises up sharply, leading to a strong reduction in viscosity, and the velocity profile changes from a parabolic shape to a plug-like shape. The parabolic velocity profile produces highly elongated bubbles mainly by simple shear, while the plug-like velocity profile is dominated by pure shear and accumulates less strain to elongate bubbles. The bubble shape at the fragmentation surface depends significantly on the velocity profile and its change along the conduit.</p><p>We also conduct a quantitative and statistical bubble shape analysis of pumice erupted at Taupo volcano. It shows that the plinian pumices have a single peak in the bubble shape distribution, while the ignimbrite pumices have a broad distribution and contain highly elongated bubbles. The comparison of the distribution of pumice textures with the simulation results suggests that the velocity profile of the plinian phase is close to a plug-like shape. We also calculate bubble deformation for the Taupo ignimbrite eruption, using the viscous-heating model. We model a wider conduit for the ignimbrite phase which leads to lower shear rate around the conduit walls and a higher proportion of the conduit experiencing parabolic flow compared to the plinian phase. This increased proportion of parabolic velocity profile in the conduit can explain a large number of tube pumice in the Taupo ignimbrite.</p>


2021 ◽  
Vol 60 (6) ◽  
pp. 5227-5243
Author(s):  
Sze Qi Chan ◽  
Fazlina Aman ◽  
Syahira Mansur

2019 ◽  
Author(s):  
Daniel Erdal ◽  
Olaf A. Cirpka

Abstract. Integrated hydrological modelling of domains with complex subsurface features requires many highly uncertain parameters. Performing a global uncertainty analysis using an ensemble of model runs can help bring clarity which of these parameters really influence system behavior, and for which high parameter uncertainty does not result in similarly high uncertainty of model predictions. However, already creating a sufficiently large ensemble of model simulation for the global sensitivity analysis can be challenging, as many combinations of model parameters can lead to unrealistic model behavior. In this work we use the method of active subspaces to perform a global sensitivity analysis. While building-up the ensemble, we use the already existing ensemble members to construct low-order meta-models based on the first two active subspace dimensions. The meta-models are used to pre-determine whether a random parameter combination in the stochastic sampling is likely to result in unrealistic behavior, so that such a parameter combination is excluded without running the computationally expensive full model. An important reason for choosing the active subspace method is that both the activity score of the global sensitivity analysis and the meta-models can easily be understood and visualized. We test the approach on a subsurface flow model including uncertain hydraulic parameter, uncertain boundary conditions, and uncertain geological structure. We show that sufficiently detailed active subspaces exist for most observations of interest. The pre-selection by the meta-model significantly reduces the number of full model runs that must be rejected due to unrealistic behavior. An essential but difficult part in active subspace sampling using complex models is approximating the gradient of the simulated observation with respect to all parameters. We show that this can effectively and meaningful be done with second-order polynomials.


2021 ◽  
Vol 8 (4) ◽  
pp. 170-179
Author(s):  
Ashok Panigrahi ◽  
Kushal Vachhani ◽  
Mohit Sisodia

Theoretical and practical features of the widely used discounted cash flow (DCF) valuation approach are examined in depth in this paper. This research evaluates Exide Industries by using the DCF Valuation technique. It is widely accepted that the discounted cash flow approach is an effective tool for analyzing the situation of an organization even in the most complicated circumstances. The DCF approach, on the other hand, is prone to huge assumption bias, and even little modifications in an analysis' underlying assumptions may substantially affect the valuation findings. As a result, of the sensitivity analysis, we discovered bullish, base, and worst-case scenarios with target share prices of Rs. 253.25, Rs. 171.37, and Rs.133.25, respectively, by adjusting growth and WACC (Weighted-Average Cost of Capital) values.


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