Periodicities in mean sea-level fluctuations and climate change proxies: Lessons from the modelling for coastal management

Ports constitute a significant influence in the economic activity in coastal areas through operations and infrastructures to facilitate land and maritime transport of cargo. Ports are located in a multi-dimensional environment facing ocean and river hazards. Higher warming scenarios indicate Europe’s ports will be exposed to higher risk due to the increase in extreme sea levels (ESL), a combination of the mean sea level, tide, and storm surge. Located on the west Iberia Peninsula, the Aveiro Port is located in a coastal lagoon exposed to ocean and river flows, contributing to higher flood risk. This study aims to assess the flood extent for Aveiro Port for historical (1979–2005), near future (2026–2045), and far future (2081–2099) periods scenarios considering different return periods (10, 25, and 100-year) for the flood drivers, through numerical simulations of the ESL, wave regime, and riverine flows simultaneously. Spatial maps considering the flood extent and calculated area show that most of the port infrastructures' resilience to flooding is found under the historical period, with some marginal floods. Under climate change impacts, the port flood extent gradually increases for higher return periods, where most of the terminals are at high risk of being flooded for the far-future period, whose contribution is primarily due to mean sea-level rise and storm surges.

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Climate Change, Coasts and Coastal Risk

Journal of Marine Science and Engineering ◽

10.3390/jmse6040141 ◽

2018 ◽

Vol 6 (4) ◽

pp. 141

Author(s):

Roshanka Ranasinghe ◽

Ruben Jongejan

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Sea Level ◽

Mean Sea Level ◽

Level I ◽

Coastal Risk

Projected climate change driven variations in mean sea level (i. [...]

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Monthly Mean Sea Level Fluctuations at Honolulu and San Francisco and the Intervening Geostrophic Currents

Journal of Physical Oceanography ◽

10.1175/1520-0485(1981)011<1375:mmslfa>2.0.co;2 ◽

1981 ◽

Vol 11 (10) ◽

pp. 1375-1382 ◽

Cited By ~ 7

Author(s):

James Michael Price

Keyword(s):

Sea Level ◽

San Francisco ◽

Mean Sea Level ◽

Geostrophic Currents ◽

Sea Level Fluctuations

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Coastal flooding in the Balearic Islands during the 21st century caused by sea level rise and extreme events

10.5194/egusphere-egu2020-4549 ◽

2020 ◽

Author(s):

Pau Luque Lozano ◽

Lluís Gómez-Pujol ◽

Marta Marcos ◽

Alejandro Orfila

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Sea Level Rise ◽

Sea Level ◽

21St Century ◽

Extreme Events ◽

Storm Surges ◽

Coastal Flooding ◽

Coastal Areas ◽

Balearic Islands ◽

Mean Sea Level

Sea-level rise induces a permanent loss of land with widespread ecological and economic impacts, most evident in urban and densely populated areas. The eventual coastline retreat combined with the action of waves and storm surges will end in more severe damages over coastal areas. These effects are expected to be particularly significant over islands, where coastal zones represent a relatively larger area vulnerable to marine hazards.Managing coastal flood risk at regional scales requires a prioritization of resources and socioeconomic activities along the coast. Stakeholders, such as regional authorities, coastal managers and private companies, need tools that help to address the evaluation of coastal risks and criteria to support decision-makers to clarify priorities and critical sites. For this reason, the regional Government of the Balearic Islands (Spain) in association with the Spanish Ministry of Agriculture, Fisheries and Environment has launched the Plan for Climate Change Coastal Adaptation. This framework integrates two levels of analysis. The first one relates with the identification of critical areas affected by coastal flooding and erosion under mean sea-level rise scenarios and the quantification of the extent of flooding, including marine extreme events. The second level assesses the impacts on infrastructures and assets from a socioeconomic perspective due to these hazards.In this context, this paper quantifies the effects of sea-level rise and marine extreme events caused by storm surges and waves along the coasts of the Balearic Islands (Western Mediterranean Sea) in terms of coastal flooding and potential erosion. Given the regional scale (~1500 km) of this study, the presented methodology adopts a compromise between accuracy, physical representativity and computational costs. We map the projected flooded coastal areas under two mean sea-level rise climate change scenarios, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5. To do so, we apply a corrected bathtub algorithm. Additionally, we compute the impact of extreme storm surges and waves using two 35-year hindcasts consistently forced by mean sea level pressure and surface winds from ERA-Interim reanalysis. Waves have been further propagated towards the nearshore to compute wave setup with higher accuracy. The 100-year return levels of joint storm surges and waves are used to map the spatial extent of flooding in more than 200 sandy beaches around the Balearic Islands by mid and late 21st century, using the hydrodynamical LISFLOOD-FP model and a high resolution (2 m) Digital Elevation Model.

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Coastal Flooding in the Maldives Induced by Mean Sea-Level Rise and Wind-Waves: From Global to Local Coastal Modelling

Frontiers in Marine Science ◽

10.3389/fmars.2021.665672 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 8 ◽

Author(s):

Angel Amores ◽

Marta Marcos ◽

Rodrigo Pedreros ◽

Gonéri Le Cozannet ◽

Sophie Lecacheux ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Sea Level Rise ◽

Sea Level ◽

Large Scale ◽

Land Reclamation ◽

Flood Hazard ◽

Wind Waves ◽

Coastal Flooding ◽

Major Drawback ◽

Mean Sea Level

The Maldives, with one of the lowest average land elevations above present-day mean sea level, is among the world regions that will be the most impacted by mean sea-level rise and marine extreme events induced by climate change. Yet, the lack of regional and local information on marine drivers is a major drawback that coastal decision-makers face to anticipate the impacts of climate change along the Maldivian coastlines. In this study we focus on wind-waves, the main driver of extremes causing coastal flooding in the region. We dynamically downscale large-scale fields from global wave models, providing a valuable source of climate information along the coastlines with spatial resolution down to 500 m. This dataset serves to characterise the wave climate around the Maldives, with applications in regional development and land reclamation, and is also an essential input for local flood hazard modelling. We illustrate this with a case study of HA Hoarafushi, an atoll island where local topo-bathymetry is available. This island is exposed to the highest incoming waves in the archipelago and recently saw development of an airport island on its reef via land reclamation. Regional waves are propagated toward the shoreline using a phase-resolving model and coastal inundation is simulated under different mean sea-level rise conditions of up to 1 m above present-day mean sea level. The results are represented as risk maps with different hazard levels gathering inundation depth and speed, providing a clear evidence of the impacts of the sea level rise combined with extreme wave events.

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STUDY ON SEA LEVEL RISE IN THE WESTERN INDONESIA

Marine Research in Indonesia ◽

10.14203/mri.v29i0.419 ◽

2018 ◽

Vol 29 ◽

pp. 31-40

Author(s):

Hadikusumah

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Sea Level Rise ◽

Sea Level ◽

Air Temperature ◽

Sea Level Change ◽

Mean Sea Level ◽

Level Change ◽

Weather Stations ◽

Level Analysis

Study on mean sea level (MSL) rise has been done on tide data at some locations in the Western Indonesia. To account the effect of climate change, air temperature analyses from some weather stations are also performed. The results showed that air temperature has changed between 0.0 to 0.44°C per ten years. The sea level analysis showed that mean sea level at Western Indonesia rise between 3.10 to 9.27 mm per year. Based on the results, the prediction on mean sea level change in the years of 2000, 2030, 2050 and 2100 for Cirebon location are 17 cm, 39 cm, 55 cm, and 92 cm, respectively.

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Free and Open-Source Software for Geographic Information System on Coastal Management: A Study Case of Sea-Level Rise in Southern Brazil

10.20944/preprints202102.0323.v1 ◽

2021 ◽

Author(s):

Lucas Terres de Lima ◽

Sandra Fernández-Fernández ◽

Carlos V. C. Weiss ◽

Volney Bitencourt ◽

Cristina Bernardes

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Information System ◽

Geographic Information System ◽

Sea Level Rise ◽

Open Source ◽

Sea Level ◽

Open Source Software ◽

Coastal Management ◽

Geographic Information ◽

End Point Rate

This work assesses sea-level rise using three different models created on Free and Open-Source Software for Geographic Information System (FOSS4GIS). Based on regional projections of Special Report on Climate Change and Oceans and Cryosphere (SROCC) of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), the models were applied to a case of study on Rio Grande do Sul coast – Brazil under different sea-level rise scenarios by the end of this century. The End Point Rate for QGIS (EPR4Q), calculates a shoreline projection using End Point Rate method. The Uncertainty Bathtub Model (uBTM), analyses the sea-level rise impact by the uncertainty of sea-level projec-tions and vertical error of the Digital Elevation/Terrain Model (DEM/DTM). The Bruun Rule for Google Earth Engine Model (BRGM) predicts the shoreline position with sea-level rise, using topographic and bathymetric data from Unmanned Aerial Vehicles (UAV) and Coastal Modelling System (SMC – Brazil), respectively. The results indicated a maximum shoreline retreat for 2100 of -502 m and -1727 m using EPR4Q and BRGM, correspondingly. The uBTM using the land-use of Mapbiomas showed a maximum of 44.57 km2 of urban area impacted by the sea-level flood. This research highlights the possibility of performing coastal management analysis in GIS environ-ment using non-commercial software.

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