Extreme floods in the Meuse river over the past century: aggravated by land-use changes?

Abstract Landscapes have been changing at an increasing pace over the past century, with countless consequences for humans and their surrounding environments. Information on past and future land use change and the resulting alteration of landscape service provisioning are valuable inputs for policy making and planning. Land use transitions in Switzerland (2009–2081) were simulated using statistical models informed by past land use changes as well as environmental and socio-economic data (1979–2009). By combining land use types with additional contextual landscape information, eight landscape services, based on both (semi-)natural and artificial landscapes, were quantified and investigated on how they would evolve under projected land use changes. Investigation of land use transitions showed region-dependent trends of urban expansion, loss of agricultural area, and forest regrowth. Landscapes cannot accommodate all services simultaneously, and this study sheds light on some competing landscape services, in particular (i) housing at the expense of agriculture and (ii) vanishing recreation opportunities around cities as city limits, and thus housing and job provisioning, expand. Model projections made it possible to pinpoint potential trade-offs between landscape services in a spatially explicit manner, thereby providing information on service provision losses and supporting planning. While future changes are presented as extrapolations of the patterns quantified in the past, policy changes might cause deviation from the projections presented here. A major challenge is to produce socio-economic and policy scenarios to inform projections that will differ from current landscape management. Given that urban sprawl is affecting many land surfaces globally, the approach used here could be generalized to other countries in similar situations.

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The sensitivity of the carbon sink by coupled carbonate weathering to climate and land-use changes: Sediment records of the biological carbon pump effect in Fuxian Lake, Yunnan, China, during the past century

The Science of The Total Environment ◽

10.1016/j.scitotenv.2020.137539 ◽

2020 ◽

Vol 720 ◽

pp. 137539 ◽

Cited By ~ 1

Author(s):

Haibo He ◽

Zaihua Liu ◽

Chongying Chen ◽

Yu Wei ◽

Qian Bao ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Land Use ◽

Carbon Sink ◽

Land Use Changes ◽

Past Century ◽

Carbonate Weathering ◽

The Past ◽

Sediment Records ◽

Carbon Pump ◽

Biological Carbon Pump

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Predicting Land Use/Land Cover Changes Using a CA-Markov Model under Two Different Scenarios

Sustainability ◽

10.3390/su10103421 ◽

2018 ◽

Vol 10 (10) ◽

pp. 3421 ◽

Cited By ~ 43

Author(s):

Rahel Hamad ◽

Heiko Balzter ◽

Kamal Kolo

Keyword(s):

Land Use ◽

Markov Chain ◽

Land Cover ◽

Land Use Changes ◽

Landsat 8 ◽

Chain Model ◽

Land Use Land Cover ◽

Kurdistan Region ◽

The Past ◽

Past Trend

Multi-temporal Landsat images from Landsat 5 Thematic Mapper (TM) acquired in 1993, 1998, 2003 and 2008 and Landsat 8 Operational Land Imager (OLI) from 2017, are used for analysing and predicting the spatio-temporal distributions of land use/land cover (LULC) categories in the Halgurd-Sakran Core Zone (HSCZ) of the National Park in the Kurdistan region of Iraq. The aim of this article was to explore the LULC dynamics in the HSCZ to assess where LULC changes are expected to occur under two different business-as-usual (BAU) assumptions. Two scenarios have been assumed in the present study. The first scenario, addresses the BAU assumption to show what would happen if the past trend in 1993–1998–2003 has continued until 2023 under continuing the United Nations (UN) sanctions against Iraq and particularly Kurdistan region, which extended from 1990 to 2003. Whereas, the second scenario represents the BAU assumption to show what would happen if the past trend in 2003–2008–2017 has to continue until 2023, viz. after the end of UN sanctions. Future land use changes are simulated to the year 2023 using a Cellular Automata (CA)-Markov chain model under two different scenarios (Iraq under siege and Iraq after siege). Four LULC classes were classified from Landsat using Random Forest (RF). Their accuracy was evaluated using κ and overall accuracy. The CA-Markov chain method in TerrSet is applied based on the past trends of the land use changes from 1993 to 1998 for the first scenario and from 2003 to 2008 for the second scenario. Based on this model, predicted land use maps for the 2023 are generated. Changes between two BAU scenarios under two different conditions have been quantitatively as well as spatially analysed. Overall, the results suggest a trend towards stable and homogeneous areas in the next 6 years as shown in the second scenario. This situation will have positive implication on the park.

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What the past suggests about future development of ecosystem service values applicable to USDA agricultural program evaluations

Agricultural and Resource Economics Review ◽

10.1017/age.2020.6 ◽

2020 ◽

Vol 49 (1) ◽

pp. 7-22

Author(s):

LeRoy T. Hansen

Keyword(s):

Land Use ◽

Spatial Resolution ◽

Future Development ◽

Ecosystem Service ◽

Land Use Changes ◽

Program Evaluations ◽

The Past ◽

Limited Applicability ◽

Program Benefit

Much of the research on ecosystem service values (ESVs) has limited applicability to USDA program benefit analyses, largely because the models/data/results (1) lack spatial breadth and hence cannot be applied in national analyses of USDA programs, and (2) do not link land use changes to the changes in ESs. This article provides an overview of a set of 15 ESVs related to agriculture's impacts on erosion in order to identify (1) weaknesses in methods, data, and assumptions that limit the quality of the ESVs and means of avoiding such weaknesses in future ESV development, and (2) approaches that might improve the reliability and spatial resolution of future ESV estimates.

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Impact of Land Use Changes and Dynamic Vegetation Changes on Vascular Flora Diversity in Małków–Bartochów (the Warta River Valley)

Folia Biologica et Oecologica ◽

10.2478/v10107-009-0020-3 ◽

2011 ◽

Vol 7 ◽

pp. 125-138 ◽

Cited By ~ 1

Author(s):

Beata Woziwoda ◽

Dorota Michalska-Hejduk

Keyword(s):

Land Use ◽

Vascular Plant ◽

Land Use Changes ◽

River Valley ◽

Special Focus ◽

Vegetation Changes ◽

Ecological Groups ◽

The Past ◽

Natural Factors ◽

Flora Diversity

The paper presents the changes of vascular plant flora in the Małków–Bartochów peatland area (the Warta River valley) which took place over a 40-year period. Vanishing, permanent and new components of the flora are presented with a special focus on valuable (protected by the law, threatened and locally rare) species. Changes in the share of ecological groups are estimated and discussed. Anthropogenic and natural factors, directly or indirectly influencing (in the past and at present) flora composition, are noted and analyzed.

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Lead-210 chronology of the Scandinavian SWAP sites

Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society of London Series B Biological Sciences ◽

10.1098/rstb.1990.0058 ◽

1990 ◽

Vol 327 (1240) ◽

pp. 239-242 ◽

Cited By ~ 2

Keyword(s):

Land Use ◽

Sediment Accumulation ◽

Past Century ◽

The Past ◽

Enhanced Dissolution ◽

Surface Water Acidification ◽

Constant Rate ◽

Minor Losses ◽

Lead 210 ◽

Atmospheric Inputs

In the Surface Water Acidification Project (SWAP) sediment profiles from five Scandinavian sites were analysed for 210 Pb by using refined isotope dilution alpha spectrometry. The 210 Pb parameters of these lakes were very similar to those obtained for protected forest lakes with no land-use activities. These data demonstrated almost exclusive atmospheric inputs and an internal deposition regulated by the organic fractionation and the grain-size distribution in the sediments. Preliminary speciation experiments showed minor losses of 210 (≤ 5%) through enhanced dissolution of fulvic compounds at acid conditions (pH ≥ 4). The sediment accumulation rates (constant rate of unsupported 210 Pb supply (CRS) model) of the lakes gradually increased, by at least a factor of three, over the past century although 210 Pb parameters did not show any strong signs of enhanced land-use activities. This is perhaps caused by more efficient preservation of the sediments through humic precipitation under more acid conditions.

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Aerosol size distribution and radiative forcing response to anthropogenically driven historical changes in biogenic secondary organic aerosol formation

Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics Discussions ◽

10.5194/acpd-14-26297-2014 ◽

2014 ◽

Vol 14 (19) ◽

pp. 26297-26348

Author(s):

S. D. D'Andrea ◽

J. C. Acosta Navarro ◽

S. C. Farina ◽

C. E. Scott ◽

A. Rap ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Land Use ◽

Radiative Forcing ◽

Secondary Organic Aerosol ◽

Land Use Changes ◽

Organic Aerosol ◽

Anthropogenic Emissions ◽

The Past ◽

Year 2000 ◽

Global Mean ◽

Past Millennium

Abstract. Emissions of biogenic volatile organic compounds (BVOC) have changed in the past millennium due to changes in land use, temperature and CO2 concentrations. Recent model reconstructions of BVOC emissions over the past millennium predicted changes in dominant secondary organic aerosol (SOA) producing BVOC classes (isoprene, monoterpenes and sesquiterpenes). The reconstructions predicted that global isoprene emissions have decreased (land-use changes to crop/grazing land dominate the reduction), while monoterpene and sesquiterpene emissions have increased (temperature increases dominate the increases); however, all three show regional variability due to competition between the various influencing factors. These BVOC changes have largely been anthropogenic in nature, and land-use change was shown to have the most dramatic effect by decreasing isoprene emissions. In this work, we use two modeled estimates of BVOC emissions from the years 1000 to 2000 to test the effect of anthropogenic changes to BVOC emissions on SOA formation, global aerosol size distributions, and radiative effects using the GEOS-Chem-TOMAS global aerosol microphysics model. With anthropogenic emissions (e.g. SO2, NOx, primary aerosols) held at present day values and BVOC emissions changed from year 1000 to year 2000 values, decreases in the number concentration of particles of size Dp > 80 nm (N80) of >25% in year 2000 relative to year 1000 were predicted in regions with extensive land-use changes since year 1000 which led to regional increases in direct plus indirect aerosol radiative effect of >0.5 W m−2 in these regions. We test the sensitivity of our results to BVOC emissions inventory, SOA yields and the presence of anthropogenic emissions; however, the qualitative response of the model to historic BVOC changes remains the same in all cases. Accounting for these uncertainties, we estimate millennial changes in BVOC emissions cause a global mean direct effect of between +0.022 and +0.163 W m−2 and the global mean cloud-albedo aerosol indirect effect of between −0.008 and −0.056 W m−2. This change in aerosols, and the associated radiative forcing, could be a~largely overlooked and important anthropogenic aerosol effect on regional climates.

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ARAHAN PENGENDALIAN PERUBAHAN PENGGUNAAN LAHAN MENGGUNAKAN MARKOV - CELLULAR AUTOMATA DI KABUPATEN CIANJUR

Jurnal Tataloka ◽

10.14710/tataloka.18.4.211-221 ◽

2017 ◽

Vol 18 (4) ◽

pp. 211

Author(s):

Rani Yudarwati ◽

Santun R.P Sitorus ◽

Khursatul Munibah

Keyword(s):

Land Use ◽

Cellular Automata ◽

Land Use Change ◽

Environmental Sustainability ◽

Land Use Changes ◽

Landuse Change ◽

The Past ◽

Land Use Scenario ◽

Environment Sustainability ◽

Spatial Plan

Controlling the rate of land use change is necessary due to maintaining environment sustainability. One of the efforts is studying the changes that occur in the past few years. These changes can be studied by Markov - Cellular Automata model.Cianjur is one of the regency that has a high risk of landslide hazard, so it is necessary to control land use change in order to realize environmental sustainability in accordance with the spatial plan of Cianjur regency (RTRW). The purpose of this study was to see land use changes that occurred and evaluated with the spatial plan (RTRW) and also to conduct controlling scenarios of land use changes. The analysis showed that Cianjur regency has drastically decreased in forest area up to 10,3% and landuse inconsistencyof 10,4%. The prediction results showed that landuse change without intervention would dramatically increase inconsistency up to 20,5%. Land use scenario of restoring forest could reduce inconsistency up to 16,6%.

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LAND USE CHANGES OVER THE PAST 200 YEARS IN NORTHEAST OHIO RECOGNIZED IN LAKE CORES FROM BROWN’S LAKE BOG, NORTHEAST OHIO

10.1130/abs/2016am-285878 ◽

2016 ◽

Author(s):

Cole R. Jimerson ◽

◽

Erika J. Freimuth ◽

Meagen Pollock ◽

Gregory Wiles

Keyword(s):

Land Use ◽

Land Use Changes ◽

The Past ◽

Lake Cores

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Land-Use Dynamics in Transport-Impacted Urban Fabric: A Case Study of Martin–Vrútky, Slovakia

Land ◽

10.3390/land9080273 ◽

2020 ◽

Vol 9 (8) ◽

pp. 273

Author(s):

Jana Nozdrovická ◽

Ivo Dostál ◽

František Petrovič ◽

Imrich Jakab ◽

Marek Havlíček ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Land Use ◽

Land Use Changes ◽

Road Transport ◽

Transport Infrastructure ◽

Landscape Changes ◽

The Past ◽

The City ◽

The Town ◽

Past Conditions

The paper evaluates landscape development, land-use changes, and transport infrastructure variations in the city of Martin and the town of Vrútky, Slovakia, over the past 70 years. It focuses on analyses of the landscape structures characterizing the study area in several time periods (1949, 1970, 1993, 2003); the past conditions are then compared with the relevant current structure (2018). Special attention is paid to the evolution of the landscape elements forming the transport infrastructure. The development and progressive changes in traffic intensities are presented in view of the resulting impact on the formation of the landscape structure. The research data confirm the importance of transport as a force determining landscape changes, and they indicate that while railroad accessibility embodied a crucial factor up to the 1970s, the more recent decades were characterized by a gradual shift to road transport.

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