Evaluation of three serological tests for diagnosis of bovine brucellosis in smallholder farms in Pakistan by estimating sensitivity and specificity using Bayesian latent class analysis

Accuracy assessment of diagnostic tests may be seriously biased if an imperfect reference test is used such as parasitology in the diagnosis of visceral leishmaniasis. We compared classical validity analysis of serological tests for Leishmania infantum with Latent Class Analysis (LCA), to assess whether it circumvented the gold standard problem. Clinical status, three serological tests (IFAT, ELISA and DAT) and parasitological data were recorded for 151 dogs captured in an endemic area. Sensitivity and specificity estimates from the 2×2 contingency tables were broadly corroborated by LCA, but the latter method provided more precise estimates that were robust for the different fitted models. It furthermore yielded a higher prevalence of infection and indicated that parasitology was only 55% sensitive. LCA seems a promising technique for test validation, but caution is required when applying it to sparse data sets. The feasibility and applicability of LCA in infectious disease epidemiology is discussed.

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Diagnostic Test Accuracy in Childhood Pulmonary Tuberculosis: A Bayesian Latent Class Analysis

American Journal of Epidemiology ◽

10.1093/aje/kww094 ◽

2016 ◽

Vol 184 (9) ◽

pp. 690-700 ◽

Cited By ~ 29

Author(s):

Samuel G. Schumacher ◽

Maarten van Smeden ◽

Nandini Dendukuri ◽

Lawrence Joseph ◽

Mark P. Nicol ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Pulmonary Tuberculosis ◽

Latent Class Analysis ◽

Chest Radiography ◽

Latent Class ◽

Credible Interval ◽

Smear Microscopy ◽

Test Accuracy ◽

Class Analysis ◽

Antituberculosis Treatment ◽

Bayesian Latent Class Analysis

AbstractEvaluation of tests for the diagnosis of childhood pulmonary tuberculosis (CPTB) is complicated by the absence of an accurate reference test. We present a Bayesian latent class analysis in which we evaluated the accuracy of 5 diagnostic tests for CPTB. We used data from a study of 749 hospitalized South African children suspected to have CPTB from 2009 to 2014. The following tests were used: mycobacterial culture, smear microscopy, Xpert MTB/RIF (Cepheid Inc.), tuberculin skin test (TST), and chest radiography. We estimated the prevalence of CPTB to be 27% (95% credible interval (CrI): 21, 35). The sensitivities of culture, Xpert, and smear microscopy were estimated to be 60% (95% CrI: 46, 76), 49% (95% CrI: 38, 62), and 22% (95% CrI: 16, 30), respectively; specificities of these tests were estimated in accordance with prior information and were close to 100%. Chest radiography was estimated to have a sensitivity of 64% (95% CrI: 55, 73) and a specificity of 78% (95% CrI: 73, 83). Sensitivity of the TST was estimated to be 75% (95% CrI: 61, 84), and it decreased substantially among children who were malnourished and infected with human immunodeficiency virus (56%). The specificity of the TST was 69% (95% CrI: 63%, 76%). Furthermore, it was estimated that 46% (95% CrI: 42, 49) of CPTB-negative cases and 93% (95% CrI: 82; 98) of CPTB-positive cases received antituberculosis treatment, which indicates substantial overtreatment and limited undertreatment.

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