scholarly journals A chrysophyte-based quantitative reconstruction of winter severity from varved lake sediments in NE Poland during the past millennium and its relationship to natural climate variability

2015 ◽  
Vol 122 ◽  
pp. 74-88 ◽  
Author(s):  
I. Hernández-Almeida ◽  
M. Grosjean ◽  
R. Przybylak ◽  
W. Tylmann
Keyword(s):  
Climate Variability ◽  
Lake Sediments ◽  
Natural Climate Variability ◽  
Quantitative Reconstruction ◽  
The Past ◽  
Ne Poland ◽  
Varved Lake Sediments ◽  
Natural Climate ◽  
Past Millennium ◽  
Winter Severity

Resilience, rapid transitions and regime shifts: Fingerprinting the responses of Lake Żabińskie (NE Poland) to climate variability and human disturbance since AD 1000

The Holocene ◽  
2016 ◽  
Vol 27 (2) ◽  
pp. 258-270 ◽  
Author(s):  
Iván Hernández-Almeida ◽  
Martin Grosjean ◽  
Juan José Gómez-Navarro ◽  
Isabelle Larocque-Tobler ◽  
Alicja Bonk ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Variability ◽  
Human Disturbance ◽  
Change Point Detection ◽  
Lake Ecosystem ◽  
Natural Climate Variability ◽  
Data Set ◽  
Detection Techniques ◽  
Ne Poland ◽  
Climate Reconstructions ◽  
Natural Climate

Rapid ecosystem transitions and adverse effects on ecosystem services as responses to combined climate and human impacts are of major concern. Yet few long-term (i.e. >60 years) quantitative observational time series exist, particularly for ecosystems that have a long history of human intervention. Here, we combine three major environmental pressures (land use, nutrients and erosion) with quantitative summer and winter climate reconstructions and climate model simulations to explore the system dynamics, resilience and the role of disturbance regimes in varved eutrophic Lake Żabińskie (NE Poland) since AD 1000. The comparison between these independent sources of information allows us to establish the coherence and points of disagreements between such data sets. We find that climate reconstructions capture noticeably natural forced climate variability, while internal variability is the dominant source of variability during most parts of the last millennium at the regional scale, precisely at which climate models seem to underestimate forced variability. Using different multivariate analyses and change point detection techniques, we identify ecosystem changes through time and shifts between rather stable states and highly variable ones. Prior to AD 1600, the lake ecosystem was characterised by high stability and resilience against observed natural climate variability. During this period, the anthropogenic fingerprint was small; the lake ecosystem was buffered against the combined human and natural disturbance. In contrast, lake–ecosystem conditions started to fluctuate across a broad range of states after AD 1600. The period AD 1745–1886 represents the phase with the strongest human disturbance of the catchment–lake ecosystem. During that time, the range of natural climate variability did not increase. Analyses of the frequency of change points in the multi-proxy data set suggest that the last 400 years were highly variable and increased vulnerability of the ecosystem to the anthropogenic disturbances. This led to significant rapid ecosystem transformations.

scholarly journals Recent warming inconsistent with natural association between temperature and atmospheric circulation over the last 2000 years

2006 ◽  
Vol 2 (3) ◽  
pp. 327-355 ◽  
Author(s):  
P. A. Mayewski ◽  
K. A. Maasch
Keyword(s):  
Climate Variability ◽  
Atmospheric Circulation ◽  
Southern Hemisphere ◽  
Northern Hemisphere ◽  
High Latitude ◽  
Natural Climate Variability ◽  
The Past ◽  
Past 2000 Years ◽  
Hemisphere Temperature ◽  
Natural Climate

Abstract. Comparison between proxies for atmospheric circulation and temperature reveals associations over the last few decades that are inconsistent with those of the past 2000 years. Notably, patterns of middle to high latitude atmospheric circulation in both hemispheres are still within the range of variability of the last 6–10 centuries while, as demonstrated by Mann and Jones (2003), Northern Hemisphere temperatures over recent decades are the highest of the last 2000 years. Further, recent temperature change precedes change in middle to high latitude atmospheric circulation unlike the two most notable changes in climate of the past 2000 years during which change in atmospheric circulation preceded or coincided with change in temperature. In addition, the most prominent change in Southern Hemisphere temperature and atmospheric circulation of the past 2000, and probably 9000 years, precedes change in temperature and atmospheric circulation in the Northern Hemisphere unlike the recent change in Northern Hemisphere temperature that leads. These findings provide new verification that recent rise in temperature is inconsistent with natural climate variability and is most likely related to anthropogenic activity in the form of enhanced greenhouse gases. From our investigation we conclude that the delayed warming over much of the Southern Hemisphere may be, in addition to other factors, a consequence of underpinning by natural climate variability. Further bipolar comparison of proxy records of atmospheric circulation demonstrates that change in atmospheric circulation in the Southern Hemisphere led by 400 years, the most abrupt change in Northern Hemisphere atmospheric circulation of the last 9000 years. This finding may be highly relevant to understanding a future when warming becomes more fully established in the Southern Hemisphere.

Climate variability and glacial processes in eastern Iceland during the past 700 years based on varved lake sediments

Boreas ◽  
2010 ◽  
Vol 40 (1) ◽  
pp. 28-45 ◽  
Author(s):  
JOHAN STRIBERGER ◽  
SVANTE BJÖRCK ◽  
ÓLAFUR INGÓLFSSON ◽  
KURT H. KJAER ◽  
IAN SNOWBALL ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Variability ◽  
Lake Sediments ◽  
The Past ◽  
Varved Lake Sediments ◽  
Glacial Processes

scholarly journals Quantifying the influence of natural climate variability on in situ measurements of seasonal total and extreme daily precipitation

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mark D. Risser ◽  
Michael F. Wehner ◽  
John P. O’Brien ◽  
Christina M. Patricola ◽  
Travis A. O’Brien ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Variability ◽  
Extreme Precipitation ◽  
Southern Oscillation ◽  
Statistical Significance ◽  
In Situ Measurements ◽  
Climate Indices ◽  
Natural Climate Variability ◽  
Modes Of Variability ◽  
Natural Climate

AbstractWhile various studies explore the relationship between individual sources of climate variability and extreme precipitation, there is a need for improved understanding of how these physical phenomena simultaneously influence precipitation in the observational record across the contiguous United States. In this work, we introduce a single framework for characterizing the historical signal (anthropogenic forcing) and noise (natural variability) in seasonal mean and extreme precipitation. An important aspect of our analysis is that we simultaneously isolate the individual effects of seven modes of variability while explicitly controlling for joint inter-mode relationships. Our method utilizes a spatial statistical component that uses in situ measurements to resolve relationships to their native scales; furthermore, we use a data-driven procedure to robustly determine statistical significance. In Part I of this work we focus on natural climate variability: detection is mostly limited to DJF and SON for the modes of variability considered, with the El Niño/Southern Oscillation, the Pacific–North American pattern, and the North Atlantic Oscillation exhibiting the largest influence. Across all climate indices considered, the signals are larger and can be detected more clearly for seasonal total versus extreme precipitation. We are able to detect at least some significant relationships in all seasons in spite of extremely large (> 95%) background variability in both mean and extreme precipitation. Furthermore, we specifically quantify how the spatial aspect of our analysis reduces uncertainty and increases detection of statistical significance while also discovering results that quantify the complex interconnected relationships between climate drivers and seasonal precipitation.

scholarly journals Recent natural variability in global warming weakened phenological mismatch and selection on seasonal timing in great tits ( Parus major )

2021 ◽  
Vol 288 (1963) ◽  
Author(s):  
Marcel E. Visser ◽  
Melanie Lindner ◽  
Phillip Gienapp ◽  
Matthew C. Long ◽  
Stephanie Jenouvrier
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Global Warming ◽  
Climate Variability ◽  
Parus Major ◽  
Great Tit ◽  
Trophic Levels ◽  
Natural Climate Variability ◽  
Seasonal Timing ◽  
Phenological Mismatch ◽  
Natural Climate

Climate change has led to phenological shifts in many species, but with large variation in magnitude among species and trophic levels. The poster child example of the resulting phenological mismatches between the phenology of predators and their prey is the great tit ( Parus major ), where this mismatch led to directional selection for earlier seasonal breeding. Natural climate variability can obscure the impacts of climate change over certain periods, weakening phenological mismatching and selection. Here, we show that selection on seasonal timing indeed weakened significantly over the past two decades as increases in late spring temperatures have slowed down. Consequently, there has been no further advancement in the date of peak caterpillar food abundance, while great tit phenology has continued to advance, thereby weakening the phenological mismatch. We thus show that the relationships between temperature, phenologies of prey and predator, and selection on predator phenology are robust, also in times of a slowdown of warming. Using projected temperatures from a large ensemble of climate simulations that take natural climate variability into account, we show that prey phenology is again projected to advance faster than great tit phenology in the coming decades, and therefore that long-term global warming will intensify phenological mismatches.

scholarly journals In Memoriam: Keith R Briffa, 1952–2017

The Holocene ◽  
2018 ◽  
Vol 28 (10) ◽  
pp. 1549-1553
Author(s):  
Timothy J Osborn ◽  
Philip D Jones ◽  
Edward R Cook
Keyword(s):  
Climate Variability ◽  
Late Holocene ◽  
Historical Context ◽  
Northern Eurasia ◽  
Primary Research ◽  
Natural Climate Variability ◽  
Climatic Trends ◽  
In Memoriam ◽  
Ring Analysis ◽  
Natural Climate

Keith R Briffa was one of the most influential palaeoclimatologists of the last 30 years. His primary research interests lay in Late-Holocene climate change with a geographical emphasis on northern Eurasia. His greatest impact was in the field of dendroclimatology, a field that he helped to shape. His contributions have been seminal to the development of sound methods for tree-ring analysis and in their proper application to allow the interpretation of climate variability from tree rings. This led to the development of many important records that allow us to understand natural climate variability on timescales from years to millennia and to set recent climatic trends in their historical context.

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