Dynamic models of socio-ecological systems predict catastrophic shifts following unsustainable development

2019 ◽  
Vol 654 ◽  
pp. 890-894 ◽  
Author(s):  
Nadia Ursino
Keyword(s):  
Dynamic Models ◽  
Ecological Systems ◽  
Catastrophic Shifts

Dynamic models and the simulation of ecological systems

1967 ◽  
Vol 16 (2) ◽  
pp. 251-267 ◽  
Author(s):  
Charles E. King ◽  
G.J. Paulik
Keyword(s):  
Dynamic Models ◽  
Ecological Systems

Approximative separability of variables in dynamic models of ecological systems

1991 ◽  
Vol 57 (3-4) ◽  
pp. 165-172 ◽  
Author(s):  
E.D. Alymkulov ◽  
N.K. Luckyanov
Keyword(s):  
Dynamic Models ◽  
Ecological Systems

scholarly journals Network-level containment of single-species bioengineering

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Victor Maull ◽  
Ricard Sole
Keyword(s):  
Single Species ◽  
Ecological Systems ◽  
Dynamic Responses ◽  
Interaction Matrix ◽  
Anthropogenic Effects ◽  
Kelp Forests ◽  
Tipping Points ◽  
Resident Species ◽  
Catastrophic Shifts ◽  
High Diversity

Ecological systems are facing major diversity losses in this century due to Anthropogenic effects. Habitat loss, overexploitation of resources, invasion and pollution are rapidly jeopardising the survival of whole communities, as revealed by pronounced population losses. Moreover, the potential of future tipping points further complicate their survival and change our perspective of risk. It has been recently suggested that a potential approach to flatten the curve of species extinction and prevent catastrophic shifts would involve the engineering of one selected species within one of these communities, aiming at helping the maintenance of key conditions compatible with high diversity. Such possibility has started to become part of potential intervention scenarios to preserve coral reefs, kelp forests or soil microbiomes in drylands. Despite its potential, very little is known about the actual dynamic responses of complex ecological networks to the introduction of a synthetic strains derived from a resident species. In this paper we address this problem by modelling the response of a competitive community to the addition of a synthetic strain derived from a member of a stable ecosystem. We show that the community interaction matrix largely limits the spread of the engineered strain, thus suggesting that species diversity acts as an ecological firewall. Implications for future restoration and terraformation strategies are discussed.

scholarly journals New geography-mathematic approaches in the tasks of design of distribution of harmful admixtures in an atmosphere

2017 ◽  
pp. 46-50
Author(s):  
Yu.Ya. Bunyakova
Keyword(s):  
Dynamical Systems ◽  
Evolutionary Dynamics ◽  
Dynamic Models ◽  
Chaotic Regime ◽  
Ecological Systems ◽  
Deterministic Dynamical Systems ◽  
Main Ideas ◽  
Geometry Analysis ◽  
New Geography ◽  
Analysis Of Time Series

It is presented a qualitative overview of the new conceptual approaches, which are based on the provisions of the chaos theory, dynamical systems theory, fractal geometry, analysis of  Lyapunov exponents, and others, to problems of modeling the propagation of pollution impurities in the atmosphere of industrial cities and predicting the evolutionary dynamics. We summarize the main ideas of these approaches with emphasis on the analysis of time series of concentrations of pollution impurities in the atmosphere, as well as an analysis that shows that the chaotic regime of the time evolution of the characteristics of deterministic dynamical systems, in particular, the application of ecological systems is, in fact, a non-linear phenomenon which in principle can not be described on the basis of the classical linear regular-dynamic models.

Parameter Identification in Ecological Systems via Discontinuous and Singular Control Regimes

2012 ◽  
Author(s):  
Dale B. McDonald ◽  
Joseph O. Falade
Keyword(s):  
Mathematical Models ◽  
Dynamic Models ◽  
Singular Control ◽  
Single Species ◽  
Ecological Systems ◽  
Critical Parameters ◽  
Regulatory Agencies ◽  
Commercial Fishing ◽  
Policy Decisions ◽  
Simulation Results

Policy decisions regarding commercial harvesting of aquatic species by (typically governmental) regulatory agencies are often based in part upon field data, simulation results, and mathematical models. Regulatory agencies may limit or expand seasons, determine total harvest allowed, increase or decrease licensure fees, and raise or lower taxation rates in response to the state of the ecological system. Ultimately, the regulatory agency uses such measures to ensure viable populations in an attempt to balance ecosystem health and benefits for society. Such decisions impact commercial fishing ventures affecting the nature of harvesting efforts and their intensity. Conclusions drawn from mathematical models of ecological systems, and derived simulation results which affect this reality are highly dependent upon the validity of information available. Knowledge or estimates of critical parameters such as intrinsic growth rate, carrying capacity, etc. and dynamic variables such as biomass levels dictate the usefulness of analytical and numerical analyses. The purpose of this treatment is to illustrate that control laws applied to mathematical models of species dynamics may be used to discern estimates of parameters that inherently exist in such models in an effort to provide more valuable information upon which to base policy decisions. Dynamic models of both single-species evolution and predator-prey interactions are examined.

Synthesis of dynamic and eco-screening approaches in modeling for ecological risk assessment

2019 ◽  
pp. 68-81 ◽  
Author(s):  
Natalia V. Solovjova
Keyword(s):  
Ecological Risk ◽  
Dynamic Models ◽  
Climatic Factors ◽  
Main Idea ◽  
Ecological Systems ◽  
Risk Assessments ◽  
Annual Variations ◽  
Combined Action ◽  
Ecosystem State ◽  
Screening Approaches

The paper proposes a method of mathematical modeling and assessment of ecological risk for marine ecological systems under the combined action of natural, anthropogenic and climatic factors. The method is based on the use of observational data, dynamic models of ecosystem state and probabilistic ecoscreening risk assessments. The main idea and novelty of the method is to take into account the annual variations of ecological risk and substantiates the primacy of determining the magnitude of the allowable risk of ecological systems, and then the allowable intensity of anthropogenic impact. Calculations using the proposed method makes it possible to get answers to questions about the principle of the admissibility of accidents of certain scales. The use of the proposed method for specific ecosystems will help to harmonize ecological and economic requirements to ensure the ecological safety of the development of shelf resources.

Monetary policy and the effect of the transfer of oil prices to inflation

2020 ◽  
pp. 41-50
Author(s):  
Ph. S. Kartaev ◽  
I. D. Medvedev
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Inflation Targeting ◽  
Dynamic Models ◽  
Oil Prices ◽  
Oil Price ◽  
Oil Price Shocks ◽  
Negative Effects ◽  
Price Shocks ◽  
Policy Regime ◽  
The Impact

The paper examines the impact of oil price shocks on inflation, as well as the impact of the choice of the monetary policy regime on the strength of this influence. We used dynamic models on panel data for the countries of the world for the period from 2000 to 2017. It is shown that mainly the impact of changes in oil prices on inflation is carried out through the channel of exchange rate. The paper demonstrates the influence of the transition to inflation targeting on the nature of the relationship between oil price shocks and inflation. This effect is asymmetrical: during periods of rising oil prices, inflation targeting reduces the effect of the transfer of oil prices, limiting negative effects of shock. During periods of decline in oil prices, this monetary policy regime, in contrast, contributes to a stronger transfer, helping to reduce inflation.

Ecological Systems of the Geobiosphere

1986 ◽  
Author(s):  
Heinrich Walter ◽  
Siegmar-W. Breckle
Keyword(s):  
Ecological Systems

Methods of parallel computing for multilevel fuzzy Takagi – Sugeno systems

2016 ◽  
pp. 141-149
Author(s):  
S.V. Yershov ◽  
◽  
R.М. Ponomarenko ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Dynamic Models ◽  
Fuzzy Inference ◽  
Knowledge Bases ◽  
Comparative Characteristic ◽  
Software Systems ◽  
Scientific Papers ◽  
Speed Up ◽  
Diagnostic Software ◽  
Takagi Sugeno

Parallel tiered and dynamic models of the fuzzy inference in expert-diagnostic software systems are considered, which knowledge bases are based on fuzzy rules. Tiered parallel and dynamic fuzzy inference procedures are developed that allow speed up of computations in the software system for evaluating the quality of scientific papers. Evaluations of the effectiveness of parallel tiered and dynamic schemes of computations are constructed with complex dependency graph between blocks of fuzzy Takagi – Sugeno rules. Comparative characteristic of the efficacy of parallel-stacked and dynamic models is carried out.

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