Using geodata technology, we conducted a bioclimatic modeling of the spatial distribution of the common palearctic ground beetle – Pterostichus oblongopunctatus (Fabricius, 1787). The range of comfort of the territories included in this species’ range was obtained. We used the data on 510 sampling points, obtained as a result of the authors’ field surveys and the data base of the GBIF global fund of biodiversity and 19 climatic parameters from the WorldClim open base and MaxEnt program. The results determined the factors which have the greatest impact on the current distribution of P. oblongopunctatus. The main climatic factors affecting the distribution of P. oblongopunctatus are average annual temperature, average 24-hour amplitude of temperature over each month, average temperature over the driest quarter, average temperature over the warmest quarter of the year, total of precipitations in the driest month of the year. We performed a prediction of possible change in the range by two scenarios (RCP 2.6 and RCP 8.5) for 2050 and 2070. Using QGIS program, we estimated the areas of the species’ range, and compared them. According to the scenario RCP 2.6, by 2050, the range of the species will contract due to decrease in the territories with moderately continental climate, and by 2070, a restoration of the range would take place, for according to this scenario, the average annual temperature stabilizes. According to the scenario RCP 8.5, the range will contract by 2050 and will continue to decrease by 2070, for the concentration of CO2 continues to increase along with increase in average annual temperature. Climate changes can affect the life cycle of the beetle, its life expectancy and activity over the season. With changes in temperature, eggs and larvae of P. oblongopunctatus can be more vulnerable.
Verification of a bioclimatic modeling system in a growing suburb in Melbourne
