Chaos and Organizational Emergence: Towards Short Term Predictive Modeling to Navigate a Way Out of Chaos

Abstract Short-term human mobility has important health consequences, but measuring short-term movement using survey data is difficult and costly, and use of mobile phone data to study short-term movement is only possible in locations that can access the data. Combining several accessible data sources, Senegal is used as a case study to predict short-term movement within the country. The focus is on two main drivers of movement—economic and social—which explain almost 70 percent of the variation in short-term movement. Comparing real and predicted short-term movement to measure the impact of population movement on the spread of malaria in Senegal, the predictions generated by the model provide estimates for the effect that are not significantly different from the estimates using the real data. Given that the data used in this paper are often accessible in other country settings, this paper demonstrates how predictive modeling can be used by policy makers to estimate short-term mobility.

Download Full-text

P26. The performance of frailty in predictive modeling of short-term outcomes in the surgical management of metastatic tumors to the spine

The Spine Journal ◽

10.1016/j.spinee.2021.05.234 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 21 (9) ◽

pp. S152-S153

Author(s):

Shane Shahrestani ◽

Joshua Bakhsheshian ◽

Zorica Buser ◽

Raymond J. Hah ◽

Patrick C. Hsieh ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Surgical Management ◽

Predictive Modeling ◽

Short Term ◽

Metastatic Tumors

Download Full-text

The performance of frailty in predictive modeling of short-term outcomes in the surgical management of metastatic tumors to the spine

The Spine Journal ◽

10.1016/j.spinee.2021.11.015 ◽

2021 ◽

Author(s):

Joshua Bakhsheshian ◽

Shane Shahrestani ◽

Zorica Buser ◽

Raymond Hah ◽

Patrick C. Hsieh ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Surgical Management ◽

Predictive Modeling ◽

Short Term ◽

Metastatic Tumors

Download Full-text

Evaluating Short-term Forecast among Different Epidemiological Models under a Bayesian Framework

10.1101/2020.10.11.20210971 ◽

2020 ◽

Author(s):

Qiwei Li ◽

Tejasv Bedi ◽

Guanghua Xiao ◽

Yang Xie

Keyword(s):

Public Health ◽

Predictive Modeling ◽

Growth Models ◽

Sir Model ◽

Global Scale ◽

Bayesian Framework ◽

Epidemiological Models ◽

Short Term ◽

Predictive Capacity ◽

Term Forecast

AbstractForecasting of COVID-19 daily confirmed cases has been one of the several challenges posed on the governments and health sectors on a global scale. To facilitate informed public health decisions, the concerned parties rely on short-term daily projections generated via predictive modeling. We calibrate stochastic variants of growth models and the standard SIR model into one Bayesian framework to evaluate their short-term forecasts. In summary, it was noted that none of the models proved to be golden standards across all the regions in their entirety, while all outperformed ARIMA in a predictive capacity as well as in terms of interpretability.

Download Full-text

Conceptual short-term memory (CSTM) supports core claims of Christiansen and Chater

Behavioral and Brain Sciences ◽

10.1017/s0140525x15000928 ◽

2016 ◽

Vol 39 ◽

Author(s):

Mary C. Potter

Keyword(s):

Working Memory ◽

Rapid Serial Visual Presentation ◽

Language Comprehension ◽

Short Term Memory ◽

Visual Presentation ◽

Long Term Memory ◽

Short Term ◽

Term Memory ◽

Use Of Knowledge

AbstractRapid serial visual presentation (RSVP) of words or pictured scenes provides evidence for a large-capacity conceptual short-term memory (CSTM) that momentarily provides rich associated material from long-term memory, permitting rapid chunking (Potter 1993; 2009; 2012). In perception of scenes as well as language comprehension, we make use of knowledge that briefly exceeds the supposed limits of working memory.

Download Full-text

Ultrastructural Changes of Canine Kidneys During 24-Hour Perfusion on a LI-400 Preservation System

Proceedings, annual meeting, Electron Microscopy Society of America ◽

10.1017/s0424820100065626 ◽

1971 ◽

Vol 29 ◽

pp. 316-317

Author(s):

M. O. Magnusson ◽

D. G. Osborne ◽

T. Shimoji ◽

W. S. Kiser ◽

W. A. Hawk

Keyword(s):

Electron Microscopy ◽

Electrolyte Solution ◽

Ultrastructural Changes ◽

Midline Incision ◽

Short Term ◽

Pentobarbital Anesthesia ◽

Pulsatile Perfusion

Short term experimental and clinical preservation of kidneys is presently best accomplished by hypothermic continuous pulsatile perfusion with cryoprecipitated and millipore filtered plasma. This study was undertaken to observe ultrastructural changes occurring during 24-hour preservation using the above mentioned method.A kidney was removed through a midline incision from healthy mongrel dogs under pentobarbital anesthesia. The kidneys were flushed immediately after removal with chilled electrolyte solution and placed on a LI-400 preservation system and perfused at 8-10°C. Serial kidney biopsies were obtained at 0-½-1-2-4-8-16 and 24 hours of preservation. All biopsies were prepared for electron microscopy. At the end of the preservation period the kidneys were autografted.

Download Full-text

Polychlorinated biphenyl induced hepatocyte alterations

Proceedings, annual meeting, Electron Microscopy Society of America ◽

10.1017/s042482010012789x ◽

1987 ◽

Vol 45 ◽

pp. 716-717

Author(s):

D.N. Collins ◽

J.N. Turner ◽

K.O. Brosch ◽

R.F. Seegal

Keyword(s):

Lipid Droplets ◽

Wistar Rats ◽

Homovanillic Acid ◽

Polychlorinated Biphenyl ◽

Corn Oil ◽

Environmental Pollutants ◽

Short Term ◽

Pcb Congeners ◽

Urinary Levels ◽

The Brain

Polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs) are a ubiquitous class of environmental pollutants with toxic and hepatocellular effects, including accumulation of fat, proliferated smooth endoplasmic recticulum (SER), and concentric membrane arrays (CMAs) (1-3). The CMAs appear to be a membrane storage and degeneration organelle composed of a large number of concentric membrane layers usually surrounding one or more lipid droplets often with internalized membrane fragments (3). The present study documents liver alteration after a short term single dose exposure to PCBs with high chlorine content, and correlates them with reported animal weights and central nervous system (CNS) measures. In the brain PCB congeners were concentrated in particular regions (4) while catecholamine concentrations were decreased (4-6). Urinary levels of homovanillic acid a dopamine metabolite were evaluated (7).Wistar rats were gavaged with corn oil (6 controls), or with a 1:1 mixture of Aroclor 1254 and 1260 in corn oil at 500 or 1000 mg total PCB/kg (6 at each level).

Download Full-text

Acetaminophen: Macula densa hypersecretory activity by induced hepatotoxicity

Proceedings, annual meeting, Electron Microscopy Society of America ◽

10.1017/s042482010012895x ◽

1987 ◽

Vol 45 ◽

pp. 934-935

Author(s):

S.S. Poolsawat ◽

C.A. Huerta ◽

S.TY. Lae ◽

G.A. Miranda

Keyword(s):

Cell Proliferation ◽

Liver Function ◽

Chronic Inflammation ◽

Foam Cell ◽

Term Effect ◽

Short Term ◽

Drug Induced ◽

Experimental Induction ◽

Tissue Alterations ◽

Toxic Responses

Introduction. Experimental induction of altered histology by chemical toxins is of particular importance if its outcome resembles histopathological phenomena. Hepatotoxic drugs and chemicals are agents that can be converted by the liver into various metabolites which consequently evoke toxic responses. Very often, these drugs are intentionally administered to resolve an illness unrelated to liver function. Because of hepatic detoxification, the resulting metabolites are suggested to be integrated into the macromolecular processes of liver function and cause an array of cellular and tissue alterations, such as increased cytoplasmic lysis, centrilobular and localized necroses, chronic inflammation and “foam cell” proliferation of the hepatic sinusoids (1-4).Most experimentally drug-induced toxicity studies have concentrated primarily on the hepatic response, frequently overlooking other physiological phenomena which are directly related to liver function. Categorically, many studies have been short-term effect investigations which seldom have followed up the complications to other tissues and organs when the liver has failed to function normally.

Download Full-text

Ultrastructural investigations of MDL 19,660-induced effects on the canine platelet and megakaryocyte

Proceedings, annual meeting, Electron Microscopy Society of America ◽

10.1017/s0424820100159412 ◽

1990 ◽

Vol 48 (3) ◽

pp. 374-375

Author(s):

D.E. Loudy ◽

J. Sprinkle-Cavallo ◽

J.T. Yarrington ◽

F.Y. Thompson ◽

J.P. Gibson

Keyword(s):

Antidepressant Drug ◽

Beagle Dogs ◽

Long Term Effects ◽

Short Term ◽

Platelet Counts ◽

Toxicological Studies ◽

Induced Aggregation ◽

Internal Architecture

Previous short term toxicological studies of one to two weeks duration have demonstrated that MDL 19,660 (5-(4-chlorophenyl)-2,4-dihydro-2,4-dimethyl-3Hl, 2,4-triazole-3-thione), an antidepressant drug, causes a dose-related thrombocytopenia in dogs. Platelet counts started to decline after two days of dosing with 30 mg/kg/day and continued to decrease to their lowest levels by 5-7 days. The loss in platelets was primarily of the small discoid subpopulation. In vitro studies have also indicated that MDL 19,660: does not spontaneously aggregate canine platelets and has moderate antiaggregating properties by inhibiting ADP-induced aggregation. The objectives of the present investigation of MDL 19,660 were to evaluate ultrastructurally long term effects on platelet internal architecture and changes in subpopulations of platelets and megakaryocytes.Nine male and nine female beagle dogs were divided equally into three groups and were administered orally 0, 15, or 30 mg/kg/day of MDL 19,660 for three months. Compared to a control platelet range of 353,000- 452,000/μl, a doserelated thrombocytopenia reached a maximum severity of an average of 135,000/μl for the 15 mg/kg/day dogs after two weeks and 81,000/μl for the 30 mg/kg/day dogs after one week.

Download Full-text